We have utilized the non-conjugate VB method for the problem of the sparse Poisson regression model. To provide an approximated conjugacy in the model, the likelihood is approximated by a quadratic function, which provides the conjugacy of the approximation component with the Gaussian prior to the regression coefficient. Three sparsity-enforcing priors are used for this problem. The proposed models are compared with each other and two frequentist sparse Poisson methods (LASSO and SCAD) to evaluate the estimation, prediction and the sparsing performance of the proposed methods. Throughout a simulated data example, the accuracy of the VB methods is computed compared to the corresponding benchmark MCMC methods. It can be observed that the proposed VB methods have provided a good approximation to the posterior distribution of the parameters, while the VB methods are much faster than the MCMC ones. Using several benchmark count response data sets, the prediction performance of the proposed methods is evaluated in real-world applications.
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We introduce Causal Diffusion as the autoregressive (AR) counterpart of Diffusion models. It is a next-token(s) forecasting framework that is friendly to both discrete and continuous modalities and compatible with existing next-token prediction models like LLaMA and GPT. While recent works attempt to combine diffusion with AR models, we show that introducing sequential factorization to a diffusion model can substantially improve its performance and enables a smooth transition between AR and diffusion generation modes. Hence, we propose CausalFusion - a decoder-only transformer that dual-factorizes data across sequential tokens and diffusion noise levels, leading to state-of-the-art results on the ImageNet generation benchmark while also enjoying the AR advantage of generating an arbitrary number of tokens for in-context reasoning. We further demonstrate CausalFusion's multimodal capabilities through a joint image generation and captioning model, and showcase CausalFusion's ability for zero-shot in-context image manipulations. We hope that this work could provide the community with a fresh perspective on training multimodal models over discrete and continuous data.
A new online multiple testing procedure is described in the context of anomaly detection, which controls the False Discovery Rate (FDR). An accurate anomaly detector must control the false positive rate at a prescribed level while keeping the false negative rate as low as possible. However in the online context, such a constraint remains highly challenging due to the usual lack of FDR control: the online framework makes it impossible to use classical multiple testing approaches such as the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure, which would require knowing the entire time series. The developed strategy relies on exploiting the local control of the ``modified FDR'' (mFDR) criterion. It turns out that the local control of mFDR enables global control of the FDR over the full series up to additional modifications of the multiple testing procedures. An important ingredient in this control is the cardinality of the calibration dataset used to compute the empirical p-values. A dedicated strategy for tuning this parameter is designed for achieving the prescribed FDR control over the entire time series. The good statistical performance of the full strategy is analyzed by theoretical guarantees. Its practical behavior is assessed by several simulation experiments which support our conclusions.
Information Retrieval (IR) methods aim to identify documents relevant to a query, which have been widely applied in various natural language tasks. However, existing approaches typically consider only the textual content within documents, overlooking the fact that documents can contain multiple modalities, including images and tables. Also, they often segment each long document into multiple discrete passages for embedding, which prevents them from capturing the overall document context and interactions between paragraphs. To address these two challenges, we propose a method that holistically embeds documents interleaved with multiple modalities by leveraging the capability of recent vision-language models that enable the processing and integration of text, images, and tables into a unified format and representation. Moreover, to mitigate the information loss from segmenting documents into passages, instead of representing and retrieving passages individually, we further merge the representations of segmented passages into one single document representation, while we additionally introduce a reranking strategy to decouple and identify the relevant passage within the document if necessary. Then, through extensive experiments on diverse IR scenarios considering both the textual and multimodal queries, we show that our approach substantially outperforms relevant baselines, thanks to the consideration of the multimodal information within documents.
Hypertree decompositions provide a way to evaluate Conjunctive Queries (CQs) in polynomial time, where the exponent of this polynomial is determined by the width of the decomposition. In theory, the goal of efficient CQ evaluation therefore has to be a minimisation of the width. However, in practical settings, it turns out that there are also other properties of a decomposition that influence the performance of query evaluation. It is therefore of interest to restrict the computation of decompositions by constraints and to guide this computation by preferences. To this end, we propose a novel framework based on candidate tree decompositions, which allows us to introduce soft hypertree width (shw). This width measure is a relaxation of hypertree width (hw); it is never greater than hw and, in some cases, shw may actually be lower than hw. ost importantly, shw preserves the tractability of deciding if a given CQ is below some fixed bound, while offering more algorithmic flexibility. In particular, it provides a natural way to incorporate preferences A prototype implementation and preliminary experiments confirm that this novel framework can indeed have a practical impact on query evaluation.
We propose a novel formalism for describing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as fixed-point problems on causally ordered variables, eliminating the need for Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), and establish the weakest known conditions for their unique recovery given the topological ordering (TO). Based on this, we design a two-stage causal generative model that first infers in a zero-shot manner a valid TO from observations, and then learns the generative SCM on the ordered variables. To infer TOs, we propose to amortize the learning of TOs on synthetically generated datasets by sequentially predicting the leaves of graphs seen during training. To learn SCMs, we design a transformer-based architecture that exploits a new attention mechanism enabling the modeling of causal structures, and show that this parameterization is consistent with our formalism. Finally, we conduct an extensive evaluation of each method individually, and show that when combined, our model outperforms various baselines on generated out-of-distribution problems. The code is available on \href{//github.com/microsoft/causica/tree/main/research_experiments/fip}{Github}.
Data in Knowledge Graphs often represents part of the current state of the real world. Thus, to stay up-to-date the graph data needs to be updated frequently. To utilize information from Knowledge Graphs, many state-of-the-art machine learning approaches use embedding techniques. These techniques typically compute an embedding, i.e., vector representations of the nodes as input for the main machine learning algorithm. If a graph update occurs later on -- specifically when nodes are added or removed -- the training has to be done all over again. This is undesirable, because of the time it takes and also because downstream models which were trained with these embeddings have to be retrained if they change significantly. In this paper, we investigate embedding updates that do not require full retraining and evaluate them in combination with various embedding models on real dynamic Knowledge Graphs covering multiple use cases. We study approaches that place newly appearing nodes optimally according to local information, but notice that this does not work well. However, we find that if we continue the training of the old embedding, interleaved with epochs during which we only optimize for the added and removed parts, we obtain good results in terms of typical metrics used in link prediction. This performance is obtained much faster than with a complete retraining and hence makes it possible to maintain embeddings for dynamic Knowledge Graphs.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) is widely used to learn a powerful representation of graph-structured data. Recent work demonstrates that transferring knowledge from self-supervised tasks to downstream tasks could further improve graph representation. However, there is an inherent gap between self-supervised tasks and downstream tasks in terms of optimization objective and training data. Conventional pre-training methods may be not effective enough on knowledge transfer since they do not make any adaptation for downstream tasks. To solve such problems, we propose a new transfer learning paradigm on GNNs which could effectively leverage self-supervised tasks as auxiliary tasks to help the target task. Our methods would adaptively select and combine different auxiliary tasks with the target task in the fine-tuning stage. We design an adaptive auxiliary loss weighting model to learn the weights of auxiliary tasks by quantifying the consistency between auxiliary tasks and the target task. In addition, we learn the weighting model through meta-learning. Our methods can be applied to various transfer learning approaches, it performs well not only in multi-task learning but also in pre-training and fine-tuning. Comprehensive experiments on multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods can effectively combine auxiliary tasks with the target task and significantly improve the performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
We study the problem of textual relation embedding with distant supervision. To combat the wrong labeling problem of distant supervision, we propose to embed textual relations with global statistics of relations, i.e., the co-occurrence statistics of textual and knowledge base relations collected from the entire corpus. This approach turns out to be more robust to the training noise introduced by distant supervision. On a popular relation extraction dataset, we show that the learned textual relation embedding can be used to augment existing relation extraction models and significantly improve their performance. Most remarkably, for the top 1,000 relational facts discovered by the best existing model, the precision can be improved from 83.9% to 89.3%.
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