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Complex interactions between two opposing agents frequently occur in domains of machine learning, game theory, and other application domains. Quantitatively analyzing the strategies involved can provide an objective basis for decision-making. One such critical scenario is shot-taking in football, where decisions, such as whether the attacker should shoot or pass the ball and whether the defender should attempt to block the shot, play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. However, there are currently no effective data-driven and/or theory-based approaches to analyzing such situations. To address this issue, we proposed a novel framework to analyze such scenarios based on game theory, where we estimate the expected payoff with machine learning (ML) models, and additional features for ML models were extracted with a theory-based shot block model. Conventionally, successes or failures (1 or 0) are used as payoffs, while a success shot (goal) is extremely rare in football. Therefore, we proposed the Expected Probability of Shot On Target (xSOT) metric to evaluate players' actions even if the shot results in no goal; this allows for effective differentiation and comparison between different shots and even enables counterfactual shot situation analysis. In our experiments, we have validated the framework by comparing it with baseline and ablated models. Furthermore, we have observed a high correlation between the xSOT and existing metrics. This alignment of information suggests that xSOT provides valuable insights. Lastly, as an illustration, we studied optimal strategies in the World Cup 2022 and analyzed a shot situation in EURO 2020.

相關內容

博弈論(Game theory)有時也稱為對策論,或者賽局理論,應用數學的一個分支,目前在生物學、經濟學、國際關系、計算機科學、政治學、軍事戰略和其他很多學科都有廣泛的應用。主要研究公式化了的激勵結構(游戲或者博弈)間的相互作用。是研究具有斗爭或競爭性質現象的數學理論和方法。也是運籌學的一個重要學科。

The performance of deep learning models depends significantly on their capacity to encode input features efficiently and decode them into meaningful outputs. Better input and output representation has the potential to boost models' performance and generalization. In the context of acoustic-to-articulatory speech inversion (SI) systems, we study the impact of utilizing speech representations acquired via self-supervised learning (SSL) models, such as HuBERT compared to conventional acoustic features. Additionally, we investigate the incorporation of novel tract variables (TVs) through an improved geometric transformation model. By combining these two approaches, we improve the Pearson product-moment correlation (PPMC) scores which evaluate the accuracy of TV estimation of the SI system from 0.7452 to 0.8141, a 6.9% increase. Our findings underscore the profound influence of rich feature representations from SSL models and improved geometric transformations with target TVs on the enhanced functionality of SI systems.

Neural networks do not generalize well to unseen data with domain shifts -- a longstanding problem in machine learning and AI. To overcome the problem, we propose MixStyle, a simple plug-and-play, parameter-free module that can improve domain generalization performance without the need to collect more data or increase model capacity. The design of MixStyle is simple: it mixes the feature statistics of two random instances in a single forward pass during training. The idea is grounded by the finding from recent style transfer research that feature statistics capture image style information, which essentially defines visual domains. Therefore, mixing feature statistics can be seen as an efficient way to synthesize new domains in the feature space, thus achieving data augmentation. MixStyle is easy to implement with a few lines of code, does not require modification to training objectives, and can fit a variety of learning paradigms including supervised domain generalization, semi-supervised domain generalization, and unsupervised domain adaptation. Our experiments show that MixStyle can significantly boost out-of-distribution generalization performance across a wide range of tasks including image recognition, instance retrieval and reinforcement learning.

For problems in image processing and many other fields, a large class of effective neural networks has encoder-decoder-based architectures. Although these networks have made impressive performances, mathematical explanations of their architectures are still underdeveloped. In this paper, we study the encoder-decoder-based network architecture from the algorithmic perspective and provide a mathematical explanation. We use the two-phase Potts model for image segmentation as an example for our explanations. We associate the segmentation problem with a control problem in the continuous setting. Then, multigrid method and operator splitting scheme, the PottsMGNet, are used to discretize the continuous control model. We show that the resulting discrete PottsMGNet is equivalent to an encoder-decoder-based network. With minor modifications, it is shown that a number of the popular encoder-decoder-based neural networks are just instances of the proposed PottsMGNet. By incorporating the Soft-Threshold-Dynamics into the PottsMGNet as a regularizer, the PottsMGNet has shown to be robust with the network parameters such as network width and depth and achieved remarkable performance on datasets with very large noise. In nearly all our experiments, the new network always performs better or as good on accuracy and dice score than existing networks for image segmentation.

To plan the trajectories of a large and heterogeneous swarm, sequential or synchronous distributed methods usually become intractable, due to the lack of global connectivity and clock synchronization, Moreover, the existing asynchronously distributed schemes usually require recheck-like mechanisms instead of inherently considering the other' moving tendency. To this end, we propose a novel asynchronous protocol to allocate the agents' derivable space in a distributed way, by which each agent can replan trajectory depending on its own timetable. Properties such as collision avoidance and recursive feasibility are theoretically shown and a lower bound of protocol updating is provided. Comprehensive simulations and comparisons with five state-of-the-art methods validate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the improvement in both the completion time and the moving distance. Finally, hardware experiments are carried out, where 8 heterogeneous unmanned ground vehicles with onboard computation navigate in cluttered scenarios at a high agility.

We consider a decentralized formulation of the active hypothesis testing (AHT) problem, where multiple agents gather noisy observations from the environment with the purpose of identifying the correct hypothesis. At each time step, agents have the option to select a sampling action. These different actions result in observations drawn from various distributions, each associated with a specific hypothesis. The agents collaborate to accomplish the task, where message exchanges between agents are allowed over a rate-limited communications channel. The objective is to devise a multi-agent policy that minimizes the Bayes risk. This risk comprises both the cost of sampling and the joint terminal cost incurred by the agents upon making a hypothesis declaration. Deriving optimal structured policies for AHT problems is generally mathematically intractable, even in the context of a single agent. As a result, recent efforts have turned to deep learning methodologies to address these problems, which have exhibited significant success in single-agent learning scenarios. In this paper, we tackle the multi-agent AHT formulation by introducing a novel algorithm rooted in the framework of deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. This algorithm, named Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for AHT (MARLA), operates at each time step by having each agent map its state to an action (sampling rule or stopping rule) using a trained deep neural network with the goal of minimizing the Bayes risk. We present a comprehensive set of experimental results that effectively showcase the agents' ability to learn collaborative strategies and enhance performance using MARLA. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of MARLA over single-agent learning approaches. Finally, we provide an open-source implementation of the MARLA framework, for the benefit of researchers and developers in related domains.

The incredible development of federated learning (FL) has benefited various tasks in the domains of computer vision and natural language processing, and the existing frameworks such as TFF and FATE has made the deployment easy in real-world applications. However, federated graph learning (FGL), even though graph data are prevalent, has not been well supported due to its unique characteristics and requirements. The lack of FGL-related framework increases the efforts for accomplishing reproducible research and deploying in real-world applications. Motivated by such strong demand, in this paper, we first discuss the challenges in creating an easy-to-use FGL package and accordingly present our implemented package FederatedScope-GNN (FS-G), which provides (1) a unified view for modularizing and expressing FGL algorithms; (2) comprehensive DataZoo and ModelZoo for out-of-the-box FGL capability; (3) an efficient model auto-tuning component; and (4) off-the-shelf privacy attack and defense abilities. We validate the effectiveness of FS-G by conducting extensive experiments, which simultaneously gains many valuable insights about FGL for the community. Moreover, we employ FS-G to serve the FGL application in real-world E-commerce scenarios, where the attained improvements indicate great potential business benefits. We publicly release FS-G, as submodules of FederatedScope, at //github.com/alibaba/FederatedScope to promote FGL's research and enable broad applications that would otherwise be infeasible due to the lack of a dedicated package.

Autonomic computing investigates how systems can achieve (user) specified control outcomes on their own, without the intervention of a human operator. Autonomic computing fundamentals have been substantially influenced by those of control theory for closed and open-loop systems. In practice, complex systems may exhibit a number of concurrent and inter-dependent control loops. Despite research into autonomic models for managing computer resources, ranging from individual resources (e.g., web servers) to a resource ensemble (e.g., multiple resources within a data center), research into integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to improve resource autonomy and performance at scale continues to be a fundamental challenge. The integration of AI/ML to achieve such autonomic and self-management of systems can be achieved at different levels of granularity, from full to human-in-the-loop automation. In this article, leading academics, researchers, practitioners, engineers, and scientists in the fields of cloud computing, AI/ML, and quantum computing join to discuss current research and potential future directions for these fields. Further, we discuss challenges and opportunities for leveraging AI and ML in next generation computing for emerging computing paradigms, including cloud, fog, edge, serverless and quantum computing environments.

Deep reinforcement learning algorithms can perform poorly in real-world tasks due to the discrepancy between source and target environments. This discrepancy is commonly viewed as the disturbance in transition dynamics. Many existing algorithms learn robust policies by modeling the disturbance and applying it to source environments during training, which usually requires prior knowledge about the disturbance and control of simulators. However, these algorithms can fail in scenarios where the disturbance from target environments is unknown or is intractable to model in simulators. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel model-free actor-critic algorithm -- namely, state-conservative policy optimization (SCPO) -- to learn robust policies without modeling the disturbance in advance. Specifically, SCPO reduces the disturbance in transition dynamics to that in state space and then approximates it by a simple gradient-based regularizer. The appealing features of SCPO include that it is simple to implement and does not require additional knowledge about the disturbance or specially designed simulators. Experiments in several robot control tasks demonstrate that SCPO learns robust policies against the disturbance in transition dynamics.

Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a popular paradigm for addressing sequential decision tasks in which the agent has only limited environmental feedback. Despite many advances over the past three decades, learning in many domains still requires a large amount of interaction with the environment, which can be prohibitively expensive in realistic scenarios. To address this problem, transfer learning has been applied to reinforcement learning such that experience gained in one task can be leveraged when starting to learn the next, harder task. More recently, several lines of research have explored how tasks, or data samples themselves, can be sequenced into a curriculum for the purpose of learning a problem that may otherwise be too difficult to learn from scratch. In this article, we present a framework for curriculum learning (CL) in reinforcement learning, and use it to survey and classify existing CL methods in terms of their assumptions, capabilities, and goals. Finally, we use our framework to find open problems and suggest directions for future RL curriculum learning research.

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