The software package $\texttt{mstate}$, in articulation with the package $\texttt{survival}$, provides not only a well-established multi-state survival analysis framework in R, but also one of the most complete, as it includes point and interval estimation of relative transition hazards, cumulative transition hazards and state occupation probabilities, both under clock-forward and clock-reset models; personalised estimates, i.e. estimates for an individual with specific covariate measurements, can also be obtained with $\texttt{mstate}$ by fitting a Cox regression model. The new R package $\texttt{ebmstate}$, which we present in the current paper, is an extension of $\texttt{mstate}$ and, to our knowledge, the first R package for multi-state model estimation that is suitable for higher-dimensional data and complete in the sense just mentioned. Its extension of $\texttt{mstate}$ is threefold: it transforms the Cox model into a regularised, empirical Bayes model that performs significantly better with higher-dimensional data; it replaces asymptotic confidence intervals meant for the low-dimensional setting by non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals; and it introduces an analytical, Fourier transform-based estimator of state occupation probabilities for clock-reset models that is substantially faster than the corresponding, simulation-based estimator in $\texttt{mstate}$. The present paper includes a detailed tutorial on how to use our package to estimate transition hazards and state occupation probabilities, as well as a simulation study showing how it improves the performance of $\texttt{mstate}$.
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The aim in packing problems is to decide if a given set of pieces can be placed inside a given container. A packing problem is defined by the types of pieces and containers to be handled, and the motions that are allowed to move the pieces. The pieces must be placed so that in the resulting placement, they are pairwise interior-disjoint. We establish a framework which enables us to show that for many combinations of allowed pieces, containers and motions, the resulting problem is $\exists \mathbb{R}$-complete. This means that the problem is equivalent (under polynomial time reductions) to deciding whether a given system of polynomial equations and inequalities with integer coefficients has a real solution. We consider packing problems where only translations are allowed as the motions, and problems where arbitrary rigid motions are allowed, i.e., both translations and rotations. When rotations are allowed, we show that it is an $\exists \mathbb{R}$-complete problem to decide if a set of convex polygons, each of which has at most $7$ corners, can be packed into a square. Restricted to translations, we show that the following problems are $\exists \mathbb{R}$-complete: (i) pieces bounded by segments and hyperbolic curves to be packed in a square, and (ii) convex polygons to be packed in a container bounded by segments and hyperbolic curves.
We study approaches for compressing the empirical measure in the context of finite dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs).In this context, the empirical measure is contained within a natural convex set and can be approximated using convex optimization methods. Such an approximation gives under certain conditions rise to a coreset of data points. A key quantity that controls how large such a coreset has to be is the size of the largest ball around the empirical measure that is contained within the empirical convex set. The bulk of our work is concerned with deriving high probability lower bounds on the size of such a ball under various conditions. We complement this derivation of the lower bound by developing techniques that allow us to apply the compression approach to concrete inference problems such as kernel ridge regression. We conclude with a construction of an infinite dimensional RKHS for which the compression is poor, highlighting some of the difficulties one faces when trying to move to infinite dimensional RKHSs.
We consider the question of adaptive data analysis within the framework of convex optimization. We ask how many samples are needed in order to compute $\epsilon$-accurate estimates of $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ gradients queried by gradient descent, and we provide two intermediate answers to this question. First, we show that for a general analyst (not necessarily gradient descent) $\Omega(1/\epsilon^3)$ samples are required. This rules out the possibility of a foolproof mechanism. Our construction builds upon a new lower bound (that may be of interest of its own right) for an analyst that may ask several non adaptive questions in a batch of fixed and known $T$ rounds of adaptivity and requires a fraction of true discoveries. We show that for such an analyst $\Omega (\sqrt{T}/\epsilon^2)$ samples are necessary. Second, we show that, under certain assumptions on the oracle, in an interaction with gradient descent $\tilde \Omega(1/\epsilon^{2.5})$ samples are necessary. Our assumptions are that the oracle has only \emph{first order access} and is \emph{post-hoc generalizing}. First order access means that it can only compute the gradients of the sampled function at points queried by the algorithm. Our assumption of \emph{post-hoc generalization} follows from existing lower bounds for statistical queries. More generally then, we provide a generic reduction from the standard setting of statistical queries to the problem of estimating gradients queried by gradient descent. These results are in contrast with classical bounds that show that with $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ samples one can optimize the population risk to accuracy of $O(\epsilon)$ but, as it turns out, with spurious gradients.
We propose a novel framework for learning a low-dimensional representation of data based on nonlinear dynamical systems, which we call dynamical dimension reduction (DDR). In the DDR model, each point is evolved via a nonlinear flow towards a lower-dimensional subspace; the projection onto the subspace gives the low-dimensional embedding. Training the model involves identifying the nonlinear flow and the subspace. Following the equation discovery method, we represent the vector field that defines the flow using a linear combination of dictionary elements, where each element is a pre-specified linear/nonlinear candidate function. A regularization term for the average total kinetic energy is also introduced and motivated by optimal transport theory. We prove that the resulting optimization problem is well-posed and establish several properties of the DDR method. We also show how the DDR method can be trained using a gradient-based optimization method, where the gradients are computed using the adjoint method from optimal control theory. The DDR method is implemented and compared on synthetic and example datasets to other dimension reductions methods, including PCA, t-SNE, and Umap.
In the interdependent values (IDV) model introduced by Milgrom and Weber [1982], agents have private signals that capture their information about different social alternatives, and the valuation of every agent is a function of all agent signals. While interdependence has been mainly studied for auctions, it is extremely relevant for a large variety of social choice settings, including the canonical setting of public projects. The IDV model is very challenging relative to standard independent private values, and welfare guarantees have been achieved through two alternative conditions known as {\em single-crossing} and {\em submodularity over signals (SOS)}. In either case, the existing theory falls short of solving the public projects setting. Our contribution is twofold: (i) We give a workable characterization of truthfulness for IDV public projects for the largest class of valuations for which such a characterization exists, and term this class \emph{decomposable valuations}; (ii) We provide possibility and impossibility results for welfare approximation in public projects with SOS valuations. Our main impossibility result is that, in contrast to auctions, no universally truthful mechanism performs better for public projects with SOS valuations than choosing a project at random. Our main positive result applies to {\em excludable} public projects with SOS, for which we establish a constant factor approximation similar to auctions. Our results suggest that exclusion may be a key tool for achieving welfare guarantees in the IDV model.
In this work, we study the transfer learning problem under high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), which aim to improve the fit on target data by borrowing information from useful source data. Given which sources to transfer, we propose a transfer learning algorithm on GLM, and derive its $\ell_1/\ell_2$-estimation error bounds as well as a bound for a prediction error measure. The theoretical analysis shows that when the target and source are sufficiently close to each other, these bounds could be improved over those of the classical penalized estimator using only target data under mild conditions. When we don't know which sources to transfer, an algorithm-free transferable source detection approach is introduced to detect informative sources. The detection consistency is proved under the high-dimensional GLM transfer learning setting. We also propose an algorithm to construct confidence intervals of each coefficient component, and the corresponding theories are provided. Extensive simulations and a real-data experiment verify the effectiveness of our algorithms. We implement the proposed GLM transfer learning algorithms in a new R package glmtrans, which is available on CRAN.
Kernel smooth is the most fundamental technique for data density and regression estimation. However, time-consuming is the biggest obstacle for the application that the direct evaluation of kernel smooth for $N$ samples needs ${O}\left( {{N}^{2}} \right)$ operations. People have developed fast smooth algorithms using the idea of binning with FFT. Unfortunately, the accuracy is not controllable, and the implementation for multivariable and its bandwidth selection for the fast method is not available. Hence, we introduce a new MATLAB toolbox for fast multivariate kernel regression with the idea of non-uniform FFT (NUFFT), which implemented the algorithm for $M$ gridding points with ${O}\left( N+M\log M \right)$ complexity and accuracy controllability. The bandwidth selection problem utilizes the Fast Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the degree of freedom (DF), saving enormous cross-validation time even better when data share the same grid space for multiple regression. Up to now, this is the first toolbox for fast-binning high-dimensional kernel regression. Moreover, the estimation for local polynomial regression, the conditional variance for the heteroscedastic model, and the complex-valued datasets are also implemented in this toolbox. The performance is demonstrated with simulations and an application on the quantitive EEG.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.
Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) is a successful tool in regression models. It is a feasible method to solve and analyze the nonlinear nature of the regression problems. This paper introduces the \textbf{itdr} R package that provides several functions based on integral transformation methods to estimate the SDR subspaces in a comprehensive and user-friendly manner. In particular, the \textbf{itdr} package includes the Fourier method (FM) and the convolution method (CM) of estimating the SDR subspaces such as the central mean subspace (CMS) and the central subspace (CS). In addition, the \textbf{itdr} package facilitates the recovery of the CMS and the CS by using the iterative Hessian transformation (IHT) method and the Fourier transformation approach for inverse dimension reduction method (invFM), respectively. Moreover, the use of the package is illustrated by three datasets. \textcolor{black}{Furthermore, this is the first package that implements integral transformation methods to estimate SDR subspaces. Hence, the \textbf{itdr} package may provide a huge contribution to research in the SDR field.
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