Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) has become a popular framework for learning implicit 3D representations and addressing different tasks such as novel-view synthesis or depth-map estimation. However, in downstream applications where decisions need to be made based on automatic predictions, it is critical to leverage the confidence associated with the model estimations. Whereas uncertainty quantification is a long-standing problem in Machine Learning, it has been largely overlooked in the recent NeRF literature. In this context, we propose Stochastic Neural Radiance Fields (S-NeRF), a generalization of standard NeRF that learns a probability distribution over all the possible radiance fields modeling the scene. This distribution allows to quantify the uncertainty associated with the scene information provided by the model. S-NeRF optimization is posed as a Bayesian learning problem which is efficiently addressed using the Variational Inference framework. Exhaustive experiments over benchmark datasets demonstrate that S-NeRF is able to provide more reliable predictions and confidence values than generic approaches previously proposed for uncertainty estimation in other domains.
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Effective decision making requires understanding the uncertainty inherent in a prediction. In regression, this uncertainty can be estimated by a variety of methods; however, many of these methods are laborious to tune, generate overconfident uncertainty intervals, or lack sharpness (give imprecise intervals). We address these challenges by proposing a novel method to capture predictive distributions in regression by defining two neural networks with two distinct loss functions. Specifically, one network approximates the cumulative distribution function, and the second network approximates its inverse. We refer to this method as Collaborating Networks (CN). Theoretical analysis demonstrates that a fixed point of the optimization is at the idealized solution, and that the method is asymptotically consistent to the ground truth distribution. Empirically, learning is straightforward and robust. We benchmark CN against several common approaches on two synthetic and six real-world datasets, including forecasting A1c values in diabetic patients from electronic health records, where uncertainty is critical. In the synthetic data, the proposed approach essentially matches ground truth. In the real-world datasets, CN improves results on many performance metrics, including log-likelihood estimates, mean absolute errors, coverage estimates, and prediction interval widths.
It has been observed that graph neural networks (GNN) sometimes struggle to maintain a healthy balance between modeling long-range dependencies across nodes while avoiding unintended consequences such as oversmoothed node representations. To address this issue (among other things), two separate strategies have recently been proposed, namely implicit and unfolded GNNs. The former treats node representations as the fixed points of a deep equilibrium model that can efficiently facilitate arbitrary implicit propagation across the graph with a fixed memory footprint. In contrast, the latter involves treating graph propagation as the unfolded descent iterations as applied to some graph-regularized energy function. While motivated differently, in this paper we carefully elucidate the similarity and differences of these methods, quantifying explicit situations where the solutions they produced may actually be equivalent and others where behavior diverges. This includes the analysis of convergence, representational capacity, and interpretability. We also provide empirical head-to-head comparisons across a variety of synthetic and public real-world benchmarks.
Humans have a strong intuitive understanding of the 3D environment around us. The mental model of the physics in our brain applies to objects of different materials and enables us to perform a wide range of manipulation tasks that are far beyond the reach of current robots. In this work, we desire to learn models for dynamic 3D scenes purely from 2D visual observations. Our model combines Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) and time contrastive learning with an autoencoding framework, which learns viewpoint-invariant 3D-aware scene representations. We show that a dynamics model, constructed over the learned representation space, enables visuomotor control for challenging manipulation tasks involving both rigid bodies and fluids, where the target is specified in a viewpoint different from what the robot operates on. When coupled with an auto-decoding framework, it can even support goal specification from camera viewpoints that are outside the training distribution. We further demonstrate the richness of the learned 3D dynamics model by performing future prediction and novel view synthesis. Finally, we provide detailed ablation studies regarding different system designs and qualitative analysis of the learned representations.
Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) and Deep Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) have achieved significant success across a wide range of domains, such as game AI, autonomous vehicles, robotics and finance. However, DRL and deep MARL agents are widely known to be sample-inefficient and millions of interactions are usually needed even for relatively simple game settings, thus preventing the wide application in real-industry scenarios. One bottleneck challenge behind is the well-known exploration problem, i.e., how to efficiently explore the unknown environments and collect informative experiences that could benefit the policy learning most. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey on existing exploration methods in DRL and deep MARL for the purpose of providing understandings and insights on the critical problems and solutions. We first identify several key challenges to achieve efficient exploration, which most of the exploration methods aim at addressing. Then we provide a systematic survey of existing approaches by classifying them into two major categories: uncertainty-oriented exploration and intrinsic motivation-oriented exploration. The essence of uncertainty-oriented exploration is to leverage the quantification of the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to derive efficient exploration. By contrast, intrinsic motivation-oriented exploration methods usually incorporate different reward agnostic information for intrinsic exploration guidance. Beyond the above two main branches, we also conclude other exploration methods which adopt sophisticated techniques but are difficult to be classified into the above two categories. In addition, we provide a comprehensive empirical comparison of exploration methods for DRL on a set of commonly used benchmarks. Finally, we summarize the open problems of exploration in DRL and deep MARL and point out a few future directions.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Attention-based neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art results on a wide range of tasks. Most such models use deterministic attention while stochastic attention is less explored due to the optimization difficulties or complicated model design. This paper introduces Bayesian attention belief networks, which construct a decoder network by modeling unnormalized attention weights with a hierarchy of gamma distributions, and an encoder network by stacking Weibull distributions with a deterministic-upward-stochastic-downward structure to approximate the posterior. The resulting auto-encoding networks can be optimized in a differentiable way with a variational lower bound. It is simple to convert any models with deterministic attention, including pretrained ones, to the proposed Bayesian attention belief networks. On a variety of language understanding tasks, we show that our method outperforms deterministic attention and state-of-the-art stochastic attention in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, generalization across domains, and robustness to adversarial attacks. We further demonstrate the general applicability of our method on neural machine translation and visual question answering, showing great potential of incorporating our method into various attention-related tasks.
Combining clustering and representation learning is one of the most promising approaches for unsupervised learning of deep neural networks. However, doing so naively leads to ill posed learning problems with degenerate solutions. In this paper, we propose a novel and principled learning formulation that addresses these issues. The method is obtained by maximizing the information between labels and input data indices. We show that this criterion extends standard cross-entropy minimization to an optimal transport problem, which we solve efficiently for millions of input images and thousands of labels using a fast variant of the Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm. The resulting method is able to self-label visual data so as to train highly competitive image representations without manual labels. Our method achieves state of the art representation learning performance for AlexNet and ResNet-50 on SVHN, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet.
Despite the state-of-the-art performance for medical image segmentation, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have rarely provided uncertainty estimations regarding their segmentation outputs, e.g., model (epistemic) and image-based (aleatoric) uncertainties. In this work, we analyze these different types of uncertainties for CNN-based 2D and 3D medical image segmentation tasks. We additionally propose a test-time augmentation-based aleatoric uncertainty to analyze the effect of different transformations of the input image on the segmentation output. Test-time augmentation has been previously used to improve segmentation accuracy, yet not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. Hence, we also propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation, where a distribution of the prediction is estimated by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We compare and combine our proposed aleatoric uncertainty with model uncertainty. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) the test-time augmentation-based aleatoric uncertainty provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the test-time dropout-based model uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions, and 2) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions.
The process of translation is ambiguous, in that there are typically many valid trans- lations for a given sentence. This gives rise to significant variation in parallel cor- pora, however, most current models of machine translation do not account for this variation, instead treating the prob- lem as a deterministic process. To this end, we present a deep generative model of machine translation which incorporates a chain of latent variables, in order to ac- count for local lexical and syntactic varia- tion in parallel corpora. We provide an in- depth analysis of the pitfalls encountered in variational inference for training deep generative models. Experiments on sev- eral different language pairs demonstrate that the model consistently improves over strong baselines.
We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.
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