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Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Efficiently approximating the probability of system failure has gained increasing importance as expensive simulations begin to play a larger role in reliability quantification tasks in areas such as structural design, power grid design, and safety certification among others. This work derives credible intervals on the probability of failure for a simulation which we assume is a realizations of a Gaussian process. We connect these intervals to binary classification error and comment on their applicability to a broad class of iterative schemes proposed throughout the literature. A novel iterative sampling scheme is proposed which can suggest multiple samples per batch for simulations with parallel implementations. We empirically test our scalable, open-source implementation on a variety simulations including a Tsunami model where failure is quantified in terms of maximum wave hight.

Language model (LM) distillation is a trending area that aims to distil the knowledge resided in a large teacher LM to a small student one. While various methods have been proposed to push the distillation to its limits, it is still a pain distilling LMs when a large capacity gap is exhibited between the teacher and the student LMs. The pain is mainly resulted by the curse of capacity gap, which describes that a larger teacher LM cannot always lead to a better student LM than one distilled from a smaller teacher LM due to the affect of capacity gap increment. That is, there is likely an optimal point yielding the best student LM along the scaling course of the teacher LM. Even worse, the curse of capacity gap can be only partly yet not fully lifted as indicated in previous studies. However, the tale is not ever one-sided. Although a larger teacher LM has better performance than a smaller teacher LM, it is much more resource-demanding especially in the context of recent large LMs (LLMs). Consequently, instead of sticking to lifting the curse, leaving the curse as is should be arguably fine. Even better, in this paper, we reveal that the optimal capacity gap is almost consistent across different student scales and architectures, fortunately turning the curse into the law of capacity gap. The law later guides us to distil a 3B student LM (termed MiniMA) from a 7B teacher LM (adapted LLaMA2-7B). MiniMA is demonstrated to yield a new compute-performance pareto frontier among existing 3B LMs on commonly used benchmarks, and its instruction-tuned version (termed MiniChat) outperforms a wide range of 3B competitors in GPT4 evaluation and could even compete with several 7B chat models.

Machine learning (ML) is widely used for key tasks in Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV), including perception, planning, and control. However, its reliance on vehicular data for model training presents significant challenges related to in-vehicle user privacy and communication overhead generated by massive data volumes. Federated learning (FL) is a decentralized ML approach that enables multiple vehicles to collaboratively develop models, broadening learning from various driving environments, enhancing overall performance, and simultaneously securing local vehicle data privacy and security. This survey paper presents a review of the advancements made in the application of FL for CAV (FL4CAV). First, centralized and decentralized frameworks of FL are analyzed, highlighting their key characteristics and methodologies. Second, diverse data sources, models, and data security techniques relevant to FL in CAVs are reviewed, emphasizing their significance in ensuring privacy and confidentiality. Third, specific applications of FL are explored, providing insight into the base models and datasets employed for each application. Finally, existing challenges for FL4CAV are listed and potential directions for future investigation to further enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of FL in the context of CAV are discussed.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects substantial noises and biases. These hinder the attainment of statistical guarantees and, moreover, impose computational challenges on UQ due to the need for repeated network retraining. Building upon the recent neural tangent kernel theory, we create statistically guaranteed schemes to principally \emph{characterize}, and \emph{remove}, the uncertainty of over-parameterized neural networks with very low computation effort. In particular, our approach, based on what we call a procedural-noise-correcting (PNC) predictor, removes the procedural uncertainty by using only \emph{one} auxiliary network that is trained on a suitably labeled dataset, instead of many retrained networks employed in deep ensembles. Moreover, by combining our PNC predictor with suitable light-computation resampling methods, we build several approaches to construct asymptotically exact-coverage confidence intervals using as low as four trained networks without additional overheads.

Applying the representational power of machine learning to the prediction of complex fluid dynamics has been a relevant subject of study for years. However, the amount of available fluid simulation data does not match the notoriously high requirements of machine learning methods. Researchers have typically addressed this issue by generating their own datasets, preventing a consistent evaluation of their proposed approaches. Our work introduces a generation procedure for synthetic multi-modal fluid simulations datasets. By leveraging a GPU implementation, our procedure is also efficient enough that no data needs to be exchanged between users, except for configuration files required to reproduce the dataset. Furthermore, our procedure allows multiple modalities (generating both geometry and photorealistic renderings) and is general enough for it to be applied to various tasks in data-driven fluid simulation. We then employ our framework to generate a set of thoughtfully designed benchmark datasets, which attempt to span specific fluid simulation scenarios in a meaningful way. The properties of our contributions are demonstrated by evaluating recently published algorithms for the neural fluid simulation and fluid inverse rendering tasks using our benchmark datasets. Our contribution aims to fulfill the community's need for standardized benchmarks, fostering research that is more reproducible and robust than previous endeavors.

Self-supervised learning, dubbed the dark matter of intelligence, is a promising path to advance machine learning. Yet, much like cooking, training SSL methods is a delicate art with a high barrier to entry. While many components are familiar, successfully training a SSL method involves a dizzying set of choices from the pretext tasks to training hyper-parameters. Our goal is to lower the barrier to entry into SSL research by laying the foundations and latest SSL recipes in the style of a cookbook. We hope to empower the curious researcher to navigate the terrain of methods, understand the role of the various knobs, and gain the know-how required to explore how delicious SSL can be.

While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has fueled multiple high-profile successes in machine learning, it is held back from more widespread adoption by its often poor data efficiency and the limited generality of the policies it produces. A promising approach for alleviating these limitations is to cast the development of better RL algorithms as a machine learning problem itself in a process called meta-RL. Meta-RL is most commonly studied in a problem setting where, given a distribution of tasks, the goal is to learn a policy that is capable of adapting to any new task from the task distribution with as little data as possible. In this survey, we describe the meta-RL problem setting in detail as well as its major variations. We discuss how, at a high level, meta-RL research can be clustered based on the presence of a task distribution and the learning budget available for each individual task. Using these clusters, we then survey meta-RL algorithms and applications. We conclude by presenting the open problems on the path to making meta-RL part of the standard toolbox for a deep RL practitioner.

Federated learning (FL) is an emerging, privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm, drawing tremendous attention in both academia and industry. A unique characteristic of FL is heterogeneity, which resides in the various hardware specifications and dynamic states across the participating devices. Theoretically, heterogeneity can exert a huge influence on the FL training process, e.g., causing a device unavailable for training or unable to upload its model updates. Unfortunately, these impacts have never been systematically studied and quantified in existing FL literature. In this paper, we carry out the first empirical study to characterize the impacts of heterogeneity in FL. We collect large-scale data from 136k smartphones that can faithfully reflect heterogeneity in real-world settings. We also build a heterogeneity-aware FL platform that complies with the standard FL protocol but with heterogeneity in consideration. Based on the data and the platform, we conduct extensive experiments to compare the performance of state-of-the-art FL algorithms under heterogeneity-aware and heterogeneity-unaware settings. Results show that heterogeneity causes non-trivial performance degradation in FL, including up to 9.2% accuracy drop, 2.32x lengthened training time, and undermined fairness. Furthermore, we analyze potential impact factors and find that device failure and participant bias are two potential factors for performance degradation. Our study provides insightful implications for FL practitioners. On the one hand, our findings suggest that FL algorithm designers consider necessary heterogeneity during the evaluation. On the other hand, our findings urge system providers to design specific mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of heterogeneity.

Neural machine translation (NMT) is a deep learning based approach for machine translation, which yields the state-of-the-art translation performance in scenarios where large-scale parallel corpora are available. Although the high-quality and domain-specific translation is crucial in the real world, domain-specific corpora are usually scarce or nonexistent, and thus vanilla NMT performs poorly in such scenarios. Domain adaptation that leverages both out-of-domain parallel corpora as well as monolingual corpora for in-domain translation, is very important for domain-specific translation. In this paper, we give a comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art domain adaptation techniques for NMT.