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Rigorous evaluation of the causal effects of semantic features on language model predictions can be hard to achieve for natural language reasoning problems. However, this is such a desirable form of analysis from both an interpretability and model evaluation perspective, that it is valuable to zone in on specific patterns of reasoning with enough structure and regularity to be able to identify and quantify systematic reasoning failures in widely-used models. In this vein, we pick a portion of the NLI task for which an explicit causal diagram can be systematically constructed: in particular, the case where across two sentences (the premise and hypothesis), two related words/terms occur in a shared context. In this work, we apply causal effect estimation strategies to measure the effect of context interventions (whose effect on the entailment label is mediated by the semantic monotonicity characteristic) and interventions on the inserted word-pair (whose effect on the entailment label is mediated by the relation between these words.). Following related work on causal analysis of NLP models in different settings, we adapt the methodology for the NLI task to construct comparative model profiles in terms of robustness to irrelevant changes and sensitivity to impactful changes.

This paper is concerned with the multi-frequency factorization method for imaging the support of a wave-number-dependent source function. It is supposed that the source function is given by the Fourier transform of some time-dependent source with a priori given radiating period. Using the multi-frequency far-field data at a fixed observation direction, we provide a computational criterion for characterizing the smallest strip containing the support and perpendicular to the observation direction. The far-field data from sparse observation directions can be used to recover a $\Theta$-convex polygon of the support. The inversion algorithm is proven valid even with multi-frequency near-field data in three dimensions. The connections to time-dependent inverse source problems are discussed in the near-field case. We also comment on possible extensions to source functions with two disconnected supports. Numerical tests in both two and three dimensions are implemented to show effectiveness and feasibility of the approach. This paper provides numerical analysis for a frequency-domain approach to recover the support of an admissible class of time-dependent sources.

Even when the causal graph underlying our data is unknown, we can use observational data to narrow down the possible values that an average treatment effect (ATE) can take by (1) identifying the graph up to a Markov equivalence class; and (2) estimating that ATE for each graph in the class. While the PC algorithm can identify this class under strong faithfulness assumptions, it can be computationally prohibitive. Fortunately, only the local graph structure around the treatment is required to identify the set of possible ATE values, a fact exploited by local discovery algorithms to improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we introduce Local Discovery using Eager Collider Checks (LDECC), a new local causal discovery algorithm that leverages unshielded colliders to orient the treatment's parents differently from existing methods. We show that there exist graphs where LDECC exponentially outperforms existing local discovery algorithms and vice versa. Moreover, we show that LDECC and existing algorithms rely on different faithfulness assumptions, leveraging this insight to weaken the assumptions for identifying the set of possible ATE values.

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured confounders given treatments were known exactly, the causal effects would not in general be identifiable, although they may be partially identified. Given these results, we propose a sensitivity analysis method for characterizing the effects of potential unmeasured confounding, tailored to the multiple treatment setting, that can be used to characterize a range of causal effects that are compatible with the observed data. Our method is based on a copula factorization of the joint distribution of outcomes, treatments, and confounders, and can be layered on top of arbitrary observed data models. We propose a practical implementation of this approach making use of the Gaussian copula, and establish conditions under which causal effects can be bounded. We also describe approaches for reasoning about effects, including calibrating sensitivity parameters, quantifying robustness of effect estimates, and selecting models that are most consistent with prior hypotheses.

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal discovery can help inferring properties of the `unobserved joint distributions' $P_{X,Y,Z}$ or $P_{X,Z}$. The properties may be conditional independences (as in `integrative causal inference') or also quantitative statements about dependences. More generally, we define a learning scenario where the input is a subset of variables and the label is some statistical property of that subset. Sets of jointly observed variables define the training points, while unobserved sets are possible test points. To solve this learning task, we infer, as an intermediate step, a causal model from the observations that then entails properties of unobserved sets. Accordingly, we can define the VC dimension of a class of causal models and derive generalization bounds for the predictions. Here, causal discovery becomes more modest and better accessible to empirical tests than usual: rather than trying to find a causal hypothesis that is `true' a causal hypothesis is {\it useful} whenever it correctly predicts statistical properties of unobserved joint distributions. This way, a sparse causal graph that omits weak influences may be more useful than a dense one (despite being less accurate) because it is able to reconstruct the full joint distribution from marginal distributions of smaller subsets. Within such a `pragmatic' application of causal discovery, some popular heuristic approaches become justified in retrospect. It is, for instance, allowed to infer DAGs from partial correlations instead of conditional independences if the DAGs are only used to predict partial correlations.

Recurrent events, including cardiovascular events, are commonly observed in biomedical studies. Researchers must understand the effects of various treatments on recurrent events and investigate the underlying mediation mechanisms by which treatments may reduce the frequency of recurrent events are crucial. Although causal inference methods for recurrent event data have been proposed, they cannot be used to assess mediation. This study proposed a novel methodology of causal mediation analysis that accommodates recurrent outcomes of interest in a given individual. A formal definition of causal estimands (direct and indirect effects) within a counterfactual framework is given, empirical expressions for these effects are identified. To estimate these effects, a semiparametric estimator with triple robustness against model misspecification was developed. The proposed methodology was demonstrated in a real-world application. The method was applied to measure the effects of two diabetes drugs on the recurrence of cardiovascular disease and to examine the mediating role of kidney function in this process.

There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these situations may be of relevance: in pharmacology, one may be interested in how outcomes of people living with -- and treated for -- HIV, such as viral failure, would vary for time-varying interventions such as different drug concentration trajectories. A challenge for doing causal inference with continuous interventions is that the positivity assumption is typically violated. To address positivity violations, we develop projection functions, which reweigh and redefine the estimand of interest based on functions of the conditional support for the respective interventions. With these functions, we obtain the desired dose-response curve in areas of enough support, and otherwise a meaningful estimand that does not require the positivity assumption. We develop $g$-computation type plug-in estimators for this case. Those are contrasted with g-computation estimators which are applied to continuous interventions without specifically addressing positivity violations, which we propose to be presented with diagnostics. The ideas are illustrated with longitudinal data from HIV positive children treated with an efavirenz-based regimen as part of the CHAPAS-3 trial, which enrolled children $<13$ years in Zambia/Uganda. Simulations show in which situations a standard $g$-computation approach is appropriate, and in which it leads to bias and how the proposed weighted estimation approach then recovers the alternative estimand of interest.

In this paper I propose a concept of a correct loss function in a generative model of supervised learning for an input space $\mathcal{X}$ and a label space $\mathcal{Y}$, which are measurable spaces. A correct loss function in a generative model of supervised learning must correctly measure the discrepancy between elements of a hypothesis space $\mathcal{H}$ of possible predictors and the supervisor operator, which may not belong to $\mathcal{H}$. To define correct loss functions, I propose a characterization of a regular conditional probability measure $\mu_{\mathcal{Y}|\mathcal{X}}$ for a probability measure $\mu$ on $\mathcal{X} \times \mathcal{Y}$ relative to the projection $\Pi_{\mathcal{X}}: \mathcal{X}\times\mathcal{Y}\to \mathcal{X}$ as a solution of a linear operator equation. If $\mathcal{Y}$ is a separable metrizable topological space with the Borel $\sigma$-algebra $ \mathcal{B} (\mathcal{Y})$, I propose another characterization of a regular conditional probability measure $\mu_{\mathcal{Y}|\mathcal{X}}$ as a minimizer of a mean square error on the space of Markov kernels, called probabilistic morphisms, from $\mathcal{X}$ to $\mathcal{Y}$, using kernel mean embedding. Using these results and using inner measure to quantify generalizability of a learning algorithm, I give a generalization of a result due to Cucker-Smale, which concerns the learnability of a regression model, to a setting of a conditional probability estimation problem. I also give a variant of Vapnik's method of solving stochastic ill-posed problem, using inner measure and discuss its applications.

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on strong untestable structural assumptions. When one is unwilling to assert such structure, IVs can nonetheless be used to construct bounds on the ATE. Famously, Balke and Pearl (1997) proved tight bounds on the ATE for a binary outcome, in a randomized trial with noncompliance and no covariate information. We demonstrate how these bounds remain useful in observational settings with baseline confounders of the IV, as well as randomized trials with measured baseline covariates. The resulting bounds on the ATE are non-smooth functionals, and thus standard nonparametric efficiency theory is not immediately applicable. To remedy this, we propose (1) under a novel margin condition, influence function-based estimators of the bounds that can attain parametric convergence rates when the nuisance functions are modeled flexibly, and (2) estimators of smooth approximations of these bounds. We propose extensions to continuous outcomes, explore finite sample properties in simulations, and illustrate the proposed estimators in a randomized field experiment studying the effects of canvassing on resulting voter turnout.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.