For both public and private firms, comparable companies analysis is widely used as a method for company valuation. In particular, the method is of great value for valuation of private equity companies. The several approaches to the comparable companies method usually rely on a qualitative approach to identifying similar peer companies, which tends to use established industry classification schemes and/or analyst intuition and knowledge. However, more quantitative methods have started being used in the literature and in the private equity industry, in particular, machine learning clustering, and natural language processing (NLP). For NLP methods, the process consists of extracting product entities from e.g., the company's website or company descriptions from some financial database system and then to perform similarity analysis. Here, using companies descriptions/summaries from publicly available companies' Wikipedia websites, we show that using large language models (LLMs), such as GPT from openaAI, has a much higher precision and success rate than using the standard named entity recognition (NER) which uses manual annotation. We demonstrate quantitatively a higher precision rate, and show that, qualitatively, it can be used to create appropriate comparable companies peer groups which can then be used for equity valuation.
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Binary responses arise in a multitude of statistical problems, including binary classification, bioassay, current status data problems and sensitivity estimation. There has been an interest in such problems in the Bayesian nonparametrics community since the early 1970s, but inference given binary data is intractable for a wide range of modern simulation-based models, even when employing MCMC methods. Recently, Christensen (2023) introduced a novel simulation technique based on counting permutations, which can estimate both posterior distributions and marginal likelihoods for any model from which a random sample can be generated. However, the accompanying implementation of this technique struggles when the sample size is too large (n > 250). Here we present perms, a new implementation of said technique which is substantially faster and able to handle larger data problems than the original implementation. It is available both as an R package and a Python library. The basic usage of perms is illustrated via two simple examples: a tractable toy problem and a bioassay problem. A more complex example involving changepoint analysis is also considered. We also cover the details of the implementation and illustrate the computational speed gain of perms via a simple simulation study.
We prove a discrete analogue for the composition of the fractional integral and Caputo derivative. This result is relevant in numerical analysis of fractional PDEs when one discretizes the Caputo derivative with the so-called L1 scheme. The proof is based on asymptotic evaluation of the discrete sums with the use of the Euler-Maclaurin summation formula.
Model-based sequential approaches to discrete "black-box" optimization, including Bayesian optimization techniques, often access the same points multiple times for a given objective function in interest, resulting in many steps to find the global optimum. Here, we numerically study the effect of a postprocessing method on Bayesian optimization that strictly prohibits duplicated samples in the dataset. We find the postprocessing method significantly reduces the number of sequential steps to find the global optimum, especially when the acquisition function is of maximum a posterior estimation. Our results provide a simple but general strategy to solve the slow convergence of Bayesian optimization for high-dimensional problems.
Compositional data arise in many real-life applications and versatile methods for properly analyzing this type of data in the regression context are needed. When parametric assumptions do not hold or are difficult to verify, non-parametric regression models can provide a convenient alternative method for prediction. To this end, we consider an extension to the classical $k$--$NN$ regression, termed $\alpha$--$k$--$NN$ regression, that yields a highly flexible non-parametric regression model for compositional data through the use of the $\alpha$-transformation. Unlike many of the recommended regression models for compositional data, zeros values (which commonly occur in practice) are not problematic and they can be incorporated into the proposed models without modification. Extensive simulation studies and real-life data analyses highlight the advantage of using these non-parametric regressions for complex relationships between the compositional response data and Euclidean predictor variables. Both suggest that $\alpha$--$k$--$NN$ regression can lead to more accurate predictions compared to current regression models which assume a, sometimes restrictive, parametric relationship with the predictor variables. In addition, the $\alpha$--$k$--$NN$ regression, in contrast to current regression techniques, enjoys a high computational efficiency rendering it highly attractive for use with large scale, massive, or big data.
Sharing multi-partite quantum entanglement between parties allows for diverse secure communication tasks to be performed. Among them, conference key agreement (CKA), an extension of key distribution to multiple parties, has received much attention recently. Interestingly, CKA can also be performed in a way that protects the identities of the participating parties, therefore providing anonymity. In this work, we propose an anonymous CKA protocol for three parties that is implemented in a highly practical network setting. Specifically, a line of quantum repeater nodes is used to build a linear cluster state among all nodes, which is then used to anonymously establish a secret key between any three of them. The nodes need only share maximally entangled pairs with their neighbours, therefore avoiding the necessity of a central server sharing entangled states. This repeater setup makes our protocol an excellent candidate for implementation in future quantum networks. We explicitly prove that our protocol protects the identities of the participants from one another and perform an analysis of the key rate in the finite regime, contributing to the quest of identifying feasible quantum communication tasks for network architectures beyond point-to-point.
Recently, a stability theory has been developed to study the linear stability of modified Patankar--Runge--Kutta (MPRK) schemes. This stability theory provides sufficient conditions for a fixed point of an MPRK scheme to be stable as well as for the convergence of an MPRK scheme towards the steady state of the corresponding initial value problem, whereas the main assumption is that the initial value is sufficiently close to the steady state. Initially, numerical experiments in several publications indicated that these linear stability properties are not only local, but even global, as is the case for general linear methods. Recently, however, it was discovered that the linear stability of the MPDeC(8) scheme is indeed only local in nature. Our conjecture is that this is a result of negative Runge--Kutta (RK) parameters of MPDeC(8) and that linear stability is indeed global, if the RK parameters are nonnegative. To support this conjecture, we examine the family of MPRK22($\alpha$) methods with negative RK parameters and show that even among these methods there are methods for which the stability properties are only local. However, this local linear stability is not observed for MPRK22($\alpha$) schemes with nonnegative Runge-Kutta parameters.
Cloud computing and the evolution of management methodologies such as Lean Management or Agile entail a profound transformation in both system construction and maintenance approaches. These practices are encompassed within the term "DevOps." This descriptive approach to an information system or application, alongside the configuration of its constituent components, has necessitated the development of descriptive languages paired with specialized engines for automating systems administration tasks. Among these, the tandem of Ansible (engine) and YAML (descriptive language) stands out as the two most prevalent tools in the market, facing notable competition mainly from Terraform. The current document presents an inquiry into a solution for generating and managing Ansible YAML roles and playbooks, utilizing Generative LLMs (Language Models) to translate human descriptions into code. Our efforts are focused on identifying plausible directions and outlining the potential industrial applications. Note: For the purpose of this experiment, we have opted against the use of Ansible Lightspeed. This is due to its reliance on an IBM Watson model, for which we have not found any publicly available references. Comprehensive information regarding this remarkable technology can be found directly on our partner RedHat's website, //www.redhat.com/en/about/press-releases/red-hat-introduces-ansible-lightspeed-ai-driven-it-automation
Deep neural networks have shown remarkable performance when trained on independent and identically distributed data from a fixed set of classes. However, in real-world scenarios, it can be desirable to train models on a continuous stream of data where multiple classification tasks are presented sequentially. This scenario, known as Continual Learning (CL) poses challenges to standard learning algorithms which struggle to maintain knowledge of old tasks while learning new ones. This stability-plasticity dilemma remains central to CL and multiple metrics have been proposed to adequately measure stability and plasticity separately. However, none considers the increasing difficulty of the classification task, which inherently results in performance loss for any model. In that sense, we analyze some limitations of current metrics and identify the presence of setup-induced forgetting. Therefore, we propose new metrics that account for the task's increasing difficulty. Through experiments on benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that our proposed metrics can provide new insights into the stability-plasticity trade-off achieved by models in the continual learning environment.
For multivariate data with noise variables, tandem clustering is a well-known technique that aims to improve cluster identification by first reducing the dimension. However, the usual approach using principal component analysis (PCA) has been criticized for focusing only on inertia so that the first components do not necessarily retain the structure of interest for clustering. To overcome this drawback, a new tandem clustering approach based on invariant coordinate selection (ICS) is proposed. By jointly diagonalizing two scatter matrices, ICS is designed to find structure in the data while returning affine invariant components. Some theoretical results have already been derived and guarantee that under some elliptical mixture models, the group structure can be highlighted on a subset of the first and/or last components. Nevertheless, ICS has received little attention in a clustering context. Two challenges are the choice of the pair of scatter matrices and the selection of the components to retain. For clustering purposes, it is demonstrated that the best scatter pairs consist of one scatter matrix that captures the within-cluster structure and another that captures the global structure. For the former, local shape or pairwise scatters are of great interest, as is the minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator based on a carefully selected subset size that is smaller than usual. The performance of ICS as a dimension reduction method is evaluated in terms of preserving the cluster structure present in data. In an extensive simulation study and in empirical applications with benchmark data sets, different combinations of scatter matrices as well as component selection criteria are compared in situations with and without outliers. Overall, the new approach of tandem clustering with ICS shows promising results and clearly outperforms the approach with PCA.
Fair calibration is a widely desirable fairness criteria in risk prediction contexts. One way to measure and achieve fair calibration is with multicalibration. Multicalibration constrains calibration error among flexibly-defined subpopulations while maintaining overall calibration. However, multicalibrated models can exhibit a higher percent calibration error among groups with lower base rates than groups with higher base rates. As a result, it is possible for a decision-maker to learn to trust or distrust model predictions for specific groups. To alleviate this, we propose \emph{proportional multicalibration}, a criteria that constrains the percent calibration error among groups and within prediction bins. We prove that satisfying proportional multicalibration bounds a model's multicalibration as well its \emph{differential calibration}, a fairness criteria that directly measures how closely a model approximates sufficiency. Therefore, proportionally calibrated models limit the ability of decision makers to distinguish between model performance on different patient groups, which may make the models more trustworthy in practice. We provide an efficient algorithm for post-processing risk prediction models for proportional multicalibration and evaluate it empirically. We conduct simulation studies and investigate a real-world application of PMC-postprocessing to prediction of emergency department patient admissions. We observe that proportional multicalibration is a promising criteria for controlling simultaneous measures of calibration fairness of a model over intersectional groups with virtually no cost in terms of classification performance.
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