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In this paper, we study the method to reconstruct dynamical systems from data without time labels. Data without time labels appear in many applications, such as molecular dynamics, single-cell RNA sequencing etc. Reconstruction of dynamical system from time sequence data has been studied extensively. However, these methods do not apply if time labels are unknown. Without time labels, sequence data becomes distribution data. Based on this observation, we propose to treat the data as samples from a probability distribution and try to reconstruct the underlying dynamical system by minimizing the distribution loss, sliced Wasserstein distance more specifically. Extensive experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Test-negative designs are widely used for post-market evaluation of vaccine effectiveness. Different from classical test-negative designs where only healthcare-seekers with symptoms are included, recent test-negative designs have involved individuals with various reasons for testing, especially in an outbreak setting. While including these data can increase sample size and hence improve precision, concerns have been raised about whether they will introduce bias into the current framework of test-negative designs, thereby demanding a formal statistical examination of this modified design. In this article, using statistical derivations, causal graphs, and numerical simulations, we show that the standard odds ratio estimator may be biased if various reasons for testing are not accounted for. To eliminate this bias, we identify three categories of reasons for testing, including symptoms, disease-unrelated reasons, and case contact tracing, and characterize associated statistical properties and estimands. Based on our characterization, we propose stratified estimators that can incorporate multiple reasons for testing to achieve consistent estimation and improve precision by maximizing the use of data. The performance of our proposed method is demonstrated through simulation studies.

We propose a method to explore the flavor structure of quarks and leptons with reinforcement learning. As a concrete model, we utilize a basic value-based algorithm for models with $U(1)$ flavor symmetry. By training neural networks on the $U(1)$ charges of quarks and leptons, the agent finds 21 models to be consistent with experimentally measured masses and mixing angles of quarks and leptons. In particular, an intrinsic value of normal ordering tends to be larger than that of inverted ordering, and the normal ordering is well fitted with the current experimental data in contrast to the inverted ordering. A specific value of effective mass for the neutrinoless double beta decay and a sizable leptonic CP violation induced by an angular component of flavon field are predicted by autonomous behavior of the agent. Our finding results indicate that the reinforcement learning can be a new method for understanding the flavor structure.

The prediction accuracy of machine learning methods is steadily increasing, but the calibration of their uncertainty predictions poses a significant challenge. Numerous works focus on obtaining well-calibrated predictive models, but less is known about reliably assessing model calibration. This limits our ability to know when algorithms for improving calibration have a real effect, and when their improvements are merely artifacts due to random noise in finite datasets. In this work, we consider detecting mis-calibration of predictive models using a finite validation dataset as a hypothesis testing problem. The null hypothesis is that the predictive model is calibrated, while the alternative hypothesis is that the deviation from calibration is sufficiently large. We find that detecting mis-calibration is only possible when the conditional probabilities of the classes are sufficiently smooth functions of the predictions. When the conditional class probabilities are H\"older continuous, we propose T-Cal, a minimax optimal test for calibration based on a debiased plug-in estimator of the $\ell_2$-Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We further propose Adaptive T-Cal, a version that is adaptive to unknown smoothness. We verify our theoretical findings with a broad range of experiments, including with several popular deep neural net architectures and several standard post-hoc calibration methods. T-Cal is a practical general-purpose tool, which -- combined with classical tests for discrete-valued predictors -- can be used to test the calibration of virtually any probabilistic classification method.

In this work we make us of Livens principle (sometimes also referred to as Hamilton-Pontryagin principle) in order to obtain a novel structure-preserving integrator for mechanical systems. In contrast to the canonical Hamiltonian equations of motion, the Euler-Lagrange equations pertaining to Livens principle circumvent the need to invert the mass matrix. This is an essential advantage with respect to singular mass matrices, which can yield severe difficulties for the modelling and simulation of multibody systems. Moreover, Livens principle unifies both Lagrangian and Hamiltonian viewpoints on mechanics. Additionally, the present framework avoids the need to set up the system's Hamiltonian. The novel scheme algorithmically conserves a general energy function and aims at the preservation of momentum maps corresponding to symmetries of the system. We present an extension to mechanical systems subject to holonomic constraints. The performance of the newly devised method is studied in representative examples.

Robust inferential methods based on divergences measures have shown an appealing trade-off between efficiency and robustness in many different statistical models. In this paper, minimum density power divergence estimators (MDPDEs) for the scale and shape parameters of the log-logistic distribution are considered. The log-logistic is a versatile distribution modeling lifetime data which is commonly adopted in survival analysis and reliability engineering studies when the hazard rate is initially increasing but then it decreases after some point. Further, it is shown that the classical estimators based on maximum likelihood (MLE) are included as a particular case of the MDPDE family. Moreover, the corresponding influence function of the MDPDE is obtained, and its boundlessness is proved, thus leading to robust estimators. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the slight loss in efficiency of MDPDE with respect to MLE and, at besides, the considerable gain in robustness.

As technology continues to advance at a rapid pace, the prevalence of multivariate functional data (MFD) has expanded across diverse disciplines, spanning biology, climatology, finance, and numerous other fields of study. Although MFD are encountered in various fields, the development of methods for hypotheses on mean functions, especially the general linear hypothesis testing (GLHT) problem for such data has been limited. In this study, we propose and study a new global test for the GLHT problem for MFD, which includes the one-way FMANOVA, post hoc, and contrast analysis as special cases. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is shown to be a chi-squared-type mixture dependent of eigenvalues of the heteroscedastic covariance functions. The distribution of the chi-squared-type mixture can be well approximated by a three-cumulant matched chi-squared-approximation with its approximation parameters estimated from the data. By incorporating an adjustment coefficient, the proposed test performs effectively irrespective of the correlation structure in the functional data, even when dealing with a relatively small sample size. Additionally, the proposed test is shown to be root-n consistent, that is, it has a nontrivial power against a local alternative. Simulation studies and a real data example demonstrate finite-sample performance and broad applicability of the proposed test.

Our goals fundamentally shape how we experience the world. For example, when we are hungry, we tend to view objects in our environment according to whether or not they are edible (or tasty). Alternatively, when we are cold, we may view the very same objects according to their ability to produce heat. Computational theories of learning in cognitive systems, such as reinforcement learning, use the notion of "state-representation" to describe how agents decide which features of their environment are behaviorally-relevant and which can be ignored. However, these approaches typically assume "ground-truth" state representations that are known by the agent, and reward functions that need to be learned. Here we suggest an alternative approach in which state-representations are not assumed veridical, or even pre-defined, but rather emerge from the agent's goals through interaction with its environment. We illustrate this novel perspective by inferring the goals driving rat behavior in an odor-guided choice task and discuss its implications for developing, from first principles, an information-theoretic account of goal-directed state representation learning and behavior.

Incorporating prior knowledge into pre-trained language models has proven to be effective for knowledge-driven NLP tasks, such as entity typing and relation extraction. Current pre-training procedures usually inject external knowledge into models by using knowledge masking, knowledge fusion and knowledge replacement. However, factual information contained in the input sentences have not been fully mined, and the external knowledge for injecting have not been strictly checked. As a result, the context information cannot be fully exploited and extra noise will be introduced or the amount of knowledge injected is limited. To address these issues, we propose MLRIP, which modifies the knowledge masking strategies proposed by ERNIE-Baidu, and introduce a two-stage entity replacement strategy. Extensive experiments with comprehensive analyses illustrate the superiority of MLRIP over BERT-based models in military knowledge-driven NLP tasks.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.