Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of SBI in neuroscience involves estimating the parameters governing the response dynamics of Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) models from electrophysiological measurements, by inferring a posterior over the parameters that is consistent with a set of observations. To this end, many SBI methods employ a set of summary statistics or scientifically interpretable features to estimate a surrogate likelihood or posterior. However, currently, there is no way to identify how much each summary statistic or feature contributes to reducing posterior uncertainty. To address this challenge, one could simply compare the posteriors with and without a given feature included in the inference process. However, for large or nested feature sets, this would necessitate repeatedly estimating the posterior, which is computationally expensive or even prohibitive. Here, we provide a more efficient approach based on the SBI method neural likelihood estimation (NLE): We show that one can marginalize the trained surrogate likelihood post-hoc before inferring the posterior to assess the contribution of a feature. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method by identifying the most important features for inferring parameters of an example HH neuron model. Beyond neuroscience, our method is generally applicable to SBI workflows that rely on data features for inference used in other scientific fields.
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Despite rapid advancements in lifelong learning (LLL) research, a large body of research mainly focuses on improving the performance in the existing \textit{static} continual learning (CL) setups. These methods lack the ability to succeed in a rapidly changing \textit{dynamic} environment, where an AI agent needs to quickly learn new instances in a `single pass' from the non-i.i.d (also possibly temporally contiguous/coherent) data streams without suffering from catastrophic forgetting. For practical applicability, we propose a novel lifelong learning approach, which is streaming, i.e., a single input sample arrives in each time step, single pass, class-incremental, and subject to be evaluated at any moment. To address this challenging setup and various evaluation protocols, we propose a Bayesian framework, that enables fast parameter update, given a single training example, and enables any-time inference. We additionally propose an implicit regularizer in the form of snap-shot self-distillation, which effectively minimizes the forgetting further. We further propose an effective method that efficiently selects a subset of samples for online memory rehearsal and employs a new replay buffer management scheme that significantly boosts the overall performance. Our empirical evaluations and ablations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the prior works by large margins.
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a formulation is not robust to model mis-specification of its component parts. An alternative approach is to draw inference based on loss functions, where the quantity of interest is defined as a minimizer of some expected loss, and to construct posterior distributions based on the loss-based formulation; this strategy underpins the construction of the Gibbs posterior. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach; specifically, we generalize the Bayesian bootstrap, and specify a Dirichlet process model for the distribution of the observables. We implement this using direct prior-to-posterior calculations, but also using predictive sampling. We also study the assessment of posterior validity for non-standard Bayesian calculations. We provide a computationally efficient way to calibrate the scaling parameter in the Gibbs posterior so that it can achieve the desired coverage rate. We show that the developed non-standard Bayesian updating procedures yield valid posterior distributions in terms of consistency and asymptotic normality under model mis-specification. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods can recover the true value of the parameter efficiently and achieve frequentist coverage even when the sample size is small. Finally, we apply our methods to evaluate the causal impact of speed cameras on traffic collisions in England.
Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have been successful in machine learning applications. Their success relies on their ability to consider space invariant local features. We consider the use of CNN to fit nuisance models in semiparametric estimation of the average causal effect of a treatment. In this setting, nuisance models are functions of pre-treatment covariates that need to be controlled for. In an application where we want to estimate the effect of early retirement on a health outcome, we propose to use CNN to control for time-structured covariates. Thus, CNN is used when fitting nuisance models explaining the treatment and the outcome. These fits are then combined into an augmented inverse probability weighting estimator yielding efficient and uniformly valid inference. Theoretically, we contribute by providing rates of convergence for CNN equipped with the rectified linear unit activation function and compare it to an existing result for feedforward neural networks. We also show when those rates guarantee uniformly valid inference. A Monte Carlo study is provided where the performance of the proposed estimator is evaluated and compared with other strategies. Finally, we give results on a study of the effect of early retirement on hospitalization using data covering the whole Swedish population.
Conventional rule learning algorithms aim at finding a set of simple rules, where each rule covers as many examples as possible. In this paper, we argue that the rules found in this way may not be the optimal explanations for each of the examples they cover. Instead, we propose an efficient algorithm that aims at finding the best rule covering each training example in a greedy optimization consisting of one specialization and one generalization loop. These locally optimal rules are collected and then filtered for a final rule set, which is much larger than the sets learned by conventional rule learning algorithms. A new example is classified by selecting the best among the rules that cover this example. In our experiments on small to very large datasets, the approach's average classification accuracy is higher than that of state-of-the-art rule learning algorithms. Moreover, the algorithm is highly efficient and can inherently be processed in parallel without affecting the learned rule set and so the classification accuracy. We thus believe that it closes an important gap for large-scale classification rule induction.
Click-through prediction (CTR) models transform features into latent vectors and enumerate possible feature interactions to improve performance based on the input feature set. Therefore, when selecting an optimal feature set, we should consider the influence of both feature and its interaction. However, most previous works focus on either feature field selection or only select feature interaction based on the fixed feature set to produce the feature set. The former restricts search space to the feature field, which is too coarse to determine subtle features. They also do not filter useless feature interactions, leading to higher computation costs and degraded model performance. The latter identifies useful feature interaction from all available features, resulting in many redundant features in the feature set. In this paper, we propose a novel method named OptFS to address these problems. To unify the selection of feature and its interaction, we decompose the selection of each feature interaction into the selection of two correlated features. Such a decomposition makes the model end-to-end trainable given various feature interaction operations. By adopting feature-level search space, we set a learnable gate to determine whether each feature should be within the feature set. Because of the large-scale search space, we develop a learning-by-continuation training scheme to learn such gates. Hence, OptFS generates the feature set only containing features which improve the final prediction results. Experimentally, we evaluate OptFS on three public datasets, demonstrating OptFS can optimize feature sets which enhance the model performance and further reduce both the storage and computational cost.
Studies with the primary aim of addressing eating disorders focus on assessing the nutrient content of food items with an exclusive focus on caloric intake. There are two primary impediments that can be noted in these studies. The first of these relates to the fact that caloric intake of each food item is calculated from an existing database. The second concerns the scientific significance of caloric intake used as the single measure of nutrient content. By requiring an existing database, researchers are forced to find some source of a comprehensive set of food items as well as their respective nutrients. This search alone is a difficult task, and if completed often leads to the requirement of a paid API service. These services are expensive and non-customizable, taking away funding that could be aimed at other parts of the study only to give an unwieldy database that can not be modified or contributed to. In this work, we introduce a new rendition of the USDA's food database that includes both foods found in grocery stores and those found in restaurants or fast food places. At the moment, we have accumulated roughly 1.5 million food entries consisting of approximately 18,000 brands and 100 restaurants in the United States. These foods also have an abundance of nutrient data associated with them, from the caloric amount to saturated fat levels. The data is stored in MySQL format and is spread among five major tables. We have also procured images for theses foods entries when available, and have included all of our data and program scripts in an open source repository.
Recently, graph-based models designed for downstream tasks have significantly advanced research on graph neural networks (GNNs). GNN baselines based on neural message-passing mechanisms such as GCN and GAT perform worse as the network deepens. Therefore, numerous GNN variants have been proposed to tackle this performance degradation problem, including many deep GNNs. However, a unified framework is still lacking to connect these existing models and interpret their effectiveness at a high level. In this work, we focus on deep GNNs and propose a novel view for understanding them. We establish a theoretical framework via inference on a probabilistic graphical model. Given the fixed point equation (FPE) derived from the variational inference on the Markov random fields, the deep GNNs, including JKNet, GCNII, DGCN, and the classical GNNs, such as GCN, GAT, and APPNP, can be regarded as different approximations of the FPE. Moreover, given this framework, more accurate approximations of FPE are brought, guiding us to design a more powerful GNN: coupling graph neural network (CoGNet). Extensive experiments are carried out on citation networks and natural language processing downstream tasks. The results demonstrate that the CoGNet outperforms the SOTA models.
For end-to-end performance testing, workload simulation is an important method to enhance the real workload while protecting user privacy. To ensure the effectiveness of the workload simulation, it is necessary to dynamically evaluate the similarity of system inner status using key performance indicators(KPIs), which provide a comprehensive record of the system status, between the simulated workload and real workload by injecting workload into the system. However, due to the characteristics of KPIs, including large data size, amplitude differences, phase shifts, non-smoothness, high dimension, and Large numerical span, it is unpractical to evaluation on the full volume of KPIs and is challenging to measure the similarity between KPIs. In this paper, we propose a similarity metric algorithm for KPIs, extend shape-based distance(ESBD), which describes both shape and intensity similarity. Around ESBD, a KPIs-based quality evaluation of workload simulation(KEWS) was proposed, which consists of four steps: KPIs preprocessing, KPIs screening, KPIs clustering, and KPIs evaluation. These techniques help mitigate the negative impact of the KPIs characteristics and give a comprehensive evaluation result. The experiments conducted on Hipstershop, an open-source microservices application, show the effectiveness of the ESBD and KEWS.
The automated detection of cancerous tumors has attracted interest mainly during the last decade, due to the necessity of early and efficient diagnosis that will lead to the most effective possible treatment of the impending risk. Several machine learning and artificial intelligence methodologies has been employed aiming to provide trustworthy helping tools that will contribute efficiently to this attempt. In this article, we present a low-complexity convolutional neural network architecture for tumor classification enhanced by a robust image augmentation methodology. The effectiveness of the presented deep learning model has been investigated based on 3 datasets containing brain, kidney and lung images, showing remarkable diagnostic efficiency with classification accuracies of 99.33%, 100% and 99.7% for the 3 datasets respectively. The impact of the augmentation preprocessing step has also been extensively examined using 4 evaluation measures. The proposed low-complexity scheme, in contrast to other models in the literature, renders our model quite robust to cases of overfitting that typically accompany small datasets frequently encountered in medical classification challenges. Finally, the model can be easily re-trained in case additional volume images are included, as its simplistic architecture does not impose a significant computational burden.
Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.
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