This paper investigates the problem of simultaneously predicting multiple binary responses by utilizing a shared set of covariates. Our approach incorporates machine learning techniques for binary classification, without making assumptions about the underlying observations. Instead, our focus lies on a group of predictors, aiming to identify the one that minimizes prediction error. Unlike previous studies that primarily address estimation error, we directly analyze the prediction error of our method using PAC-Bayesian bounds techniques. In this paper, we introduce a pseudo-Bayesian approach capable of handling incomplete response data. Our strategy is efficiently implemented using the Langevin Monte Carlo method. Through simulation studies and a practical application using real data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, producing comparable or sometimes superior results compared to the current state-of-the-art method.
Shape completion, i.e., predicting the complete geometry of an object from a partial observation, is highly relevant for several downstream tasks, most notably robotic manipulation. When basing planning or prediction of real grasps on object shape reconstruction, an indication of severe geometric uncertainty is indispensable. In particular, there can be an irreducible uncertainty in extended regions about the presence of entire object parts when given ambiguous object views. To treat this important case, we propose two novel methods for predicting such uncertain regions as straightforward extensions of any method for predicting local spatial occupancy, one through postprocessing occupancy scores, the other through direct prediction of an uncertainty indicator. We compare these methods together with two known approaches to probabilistic shape completion. Moreover, we generate a dataset, derived from ShapeNet, of realistically rendered depth images of object views with ground-truth annotations for the uncertain regions. We train on this dataset and test each method in shape completion and prediction of uncertain regions for known and novel object instances and on synthetic and real data. While direct uncertainty prediction is by far the most accurate in the segmentation of uncertain regions, both novel methods outperform the two baselines in shape completion and uncertain region prediction, and avoiding the predicted uncertain regions increases the quality of grasps for all tested methods. Web: //github.com/DLR-RM/shape-completion
We contribute to the sparsely populated area of unsupervised deep graph matching with application to keypoint matching in images. Contrary to the standard \emph{supervised} approach, our method does not require ground truth correspondences between keypoint pairs. Instead, it is self-supervised by enforcing consistency of matchings between images of the same object category. As the matching and the consistency loss are discrete, their derivatives cannot be straightforwardly used for learning. We address this issue in a principled way by building our method upon the recent results on black-box differentiation of combinatorial solvers. This makes our method exceptionally flexible, as it is compatible with arbitrary network architectures and combinatorial solvers. Our experimental evaluation suggests that our technique sets a new state-of-the-art for unsupervised graph matching.
Model selection is an integral problem of model based optimization techniques such as Bayesian optimization (BO). Current approaches often treat model selection as an estimation problem, to be periodically updated with observations coming from the optimization iterations. In this paper, we propose an alternative way to achieve both efficiently. Specifically, we propose a novel way of integrating model selection and BO for the single goal of reaching the function optima faster. The algorithm moves back and forth between BO in the model space and BO in the function space, where the goodness of the recommended model is captured by a score function and fed back, capturing how well the model helped convergence in the function space. The score function is derived in such a way that it neutralizes the effect of the moving nature of the BO in the function space, thus keeping the model selection problem stationary. This back and forth leads to quick convergence for both model selection and BO in the function space. In addition to improved sample efficiency, the framework outputs information about the black-box function. Convergence is proved, and experimental results show significant improvement compared to standard BO.
In recent years, there has been a growing interest in understanding complex microstructures and their effect on macroscopic properties. In general, it is difficult to derive an effective constitutive law for such microstructures with reasonable accuracy and meaningful parameters. One numerical approach to bridge the scales is computational homogenization, in which a microscopic problem is solved at every macroscopic point, essentially replacing the effective constitutive model. Such approaches are, however, computationally expensive and typically infeasible in multi-query contexts such as optimization and material design. To render these analyses tractable, surrogate models that can accurately approximate and accelerate the microscopic problem over a large design space of shapes, material and loading parameters are required. In previous works, such models were constructed in a data-driven manner using methods such as Neural Networks (NN) or Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). However, these approaches currently suffer from issues, such as need for large amounts of training data, lack of physics, and considerable extrapolation errors. In this work, we develop a reduced order model based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), Empirical Cubature Method (ECM) and a geometrical transformation method with the following key features: (i) large shape variations of the microstructure are captured, (ii) only relatively small amounts of training data are necessary, and (iii) highly non-linear history-dependent behaviors are treated. The proposed framework is tested and examined in two numerical examples, involving two scales and large geometrical variations. In both cases, high speed-ups and accuracies are achieved while observing good extrapolation behavior.
The dynamic ranking, due to its increasing importance in many applications, is becoming crucial, especially with the collection of voluminous time-dependent data. One such application is sports statistics, where dynamic ranking aids in forecasting the performance of competitive teams, drawing on historical and current data. Despite its usefulness, predicting and inferring rankings pose challenges in environments necessitating time-dependent modeling. This paper introduces a spectral ranker called Kernel Rank Centrality, designed to rank items based on pairwise comparisons over time. The ranker operates via kernel smoothing in the Bradley-Terry model, utilizing a Markov chain model. Unlike the maximum likelihood approach, the spectral ranker is nonparametric, demands fewer model assumptions and computations, and allows for real-time ranking. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the ranker by applying an innovative group inverse technique, resulting in a uniform and precise entrywise expansion. This result allows us to devise a new inferential method for predictive inference, previously unavailable in existing approaches. Our numerical examples showcase the ranker's utility in predictive accuracy and constructing an uncertainty measure for prediction, leveraging data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The results underscore our method's potential compared to the gold standard in sports, the Arpad Elo rating system.
Sub-word segmentation is an essential pre-processing step for Neural Machine Translation (NMT). Existing work has shown that neural sub-word segmenters are better than Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE), however, they are inefficient as they require parallel corpora, days to train and hours to decode. This paper introduces SelfSeg, a self-supervised neural sub-word segmentation method that is much faster to train/decode and requires only monolingual dictionaries instead of parallel corpora. SelfSeg takes as input a word in the form of a partially masked character sequence, optimizes the word generation probability and generates the segmentation with the maximum posterior probability, which is calculated using a dynamic programming algorithm. The training time of SelfSeg depends on word frequencies, and we explore several word frequency normalization strategies to accelerate the training phase. Additionally, we propose a regularization mechanism that allows the segmenter to generate various segmentations for one word. To show the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct MT experiments in low-, middle- and high-resource scenarios, where we compare the performance of using different segmentation methods. The experimental results demonstrate that on the low-resource ALT dataset, our method achieves more than 1.2 BLEU score improvement compared with BPE and SentencePiece, and a 1.1 score improvement over Dynamic Programming Encoding (DPE) and Vocabulary Learning via Optimal Transport (VOLT) on average. The regularization method achieves approximately a 4.3 BLEU score improvement over BPE and a 1.2 BLEU score improvement over BPE-dropout, the regularized version of BPE. We also observed significant improvements on IWSLT15 Vi->En, WMT16 Ro->En and WMT15 Fi->En datasets, and competitive results on the WMT14 De->En and WMT14 Fr->En datasets.
The theory of Koopman operators allows to deploy non-parametric machine learning algorithms to predict and analyze complex dynamical systems. Estimators such as principal component regression (PCR) or reduced rank regression (RRR) in kernel spaces can be shown to provably learn Koopman operators from finite empirical observations of the system's time evolution. Scaling these approaches to very long trajectories is a challenge and requires introducing suitable approximations to make computations feasible. In this paper, we boost the efficiency of different kernel-based Koopman operator estimators using random projections (sketching). We derive, implement and test the new "sketched" estimators with extensive experiments on synthetic and large-scale molecular dynamics datasets. Further, we establish non asymptotic error bounds giving a sharp characterization of the trade-offs between statistical learning rates and computational efficiency. Our empirical and theoretical analysis shows that the proposed estimators provide a sound and efficient way to learn large scale dynamical systems. In particular our experiments indicate that the proposed estimators retain the same accuracy of PCR or RRR, while being much faster.
Recently developed reduced-order modeling techniques aim to approximate nonlinear dynamical systems on low-dimensional manifolds learned from data. This is an effective approach for modeling dynamics in a post-transient regime where the effects of initial conditions and other disturbances have decayed. However, modeling transient dynamics near an underlying manifold, as needed for real-time control and forecasting applications, is complicated by the effects of fast dynamics and nonnormal sensitivity mechanisms. To begin to address these issues, we introduce a parametric class of nonlinear projections described by constrained autoencoder neural networks in which both the manifold and the projection fibers are learned from data. Our architecture uses invertible activation functions and biorthogonal weight matrices to ensure that the encoder is a left inverse of the decoder. We also introduce new dynamics-aware cost functions that promote learning of oblique projection fibers that account for fast dynamics and nonnormality. To demonstrate these methods and the specific challenges they address, we provide a detailed case study of a three-state model of vortex shedding in the wake of a bluff body immersed in a fluid, which has a two-dimensional slow manifold that can be computed analytically. In anticipation of future applications to high-dimensional systems, we also propose several techniques for constructing computationally efficient reduced-order models using our proposed nonlinear projection framework. This includes a novel sparsity-promoting penalty for the encoder that avoids detrimental weight matrix shrinkage via computation on the Grassmann manifold.
The use of multiple imputation (MI) is becoming increasingly popular for addressing missing data. Although some conventional MI approaches have been well studied and have shown empirical validity, they have limitations when processing large datasets with complex data structures. Their imputation performances usually rely on the proper specification of imputation models, which requires expert knowledge of the inherent relations among variables. Moreover, these standard approaches tend to be computationally inefficient for medium and large datasets. In this paper, we propose a scalable MI framework mixgb, which is based on XGBoost, subsampling, and predictive mean matching. Our approach leverages the power of XGBoost, a fast implementation of gradient boosted trees, to automatically capture interactions and non-linear relations while achieving high computational efficiency. In addition, we incorporate subsampling and predictive mean matching to reduce bias and better account for appropriate imputation variability. The proposed framework is implemented in an R package mixgb. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.