In this article, we consider the benefit of increasing adaptivity of an existing robust estimation algorithm by learning two parameters to better fit the residual distribution. Our method uses these two parameters to calculate weights for Iterative Re-weighted Least Squares (IRLS). This adaptive nature of the weights can be helpful in situations where the noise level varies in the measurements. We test our algorithm first on the point cloud registration problem with synthetic data sets and lidar odometry with open-source real-world data sets. We show that the existing approach needs an additional manual tuning of a residual scale parameter which our method directly learns from data and has similar or better performance.
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We consider the problem of solving linear least squares problems in a framework where only evaluations of the linear map are possible. We derive randomized methods that do not need any other matrix operations than forward evaluations, especially no evaluation of the adjoint map is needed. Our method is motivated by the simple observation that one can get an unbiased estimate of the application of the adjoint. We show convergence of the method and then derive a more efficient method that uses an exact linesearch. This method, called random descent, resembles known methods in other context and has the randomized coordinate descent method as special case. We provide convergence analysis of the random descent method emphasizing the dependence on the underlying distribution of the random vectors. Furthermore we investigate the applicability of the method in the context of ill-posed inverse problems and show that the method can have beneficial properties when the unknown solution is rough. We illustrate the theoretical findings in numerical examples. One particular result is that the random descent method actually outperforms established transposed-free methods (TFQMR and CGS) in examples.
The goal of this paper is to revisit Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) through dualization of a difference of convex functions. This allows to naturally extend KPCA to multiple objective functions and leads to efficient gradient-based algorithms avoiding the expensive SVD of the Gram matrix. Particularly, we consider objective functions that can be written as Moreau envelopes, demonstrating how to promote robustness and sparsity within the same framework. The proposed method is evaluated on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing significant speedup in KPCA training time as well as highlighting the benefits in terms of robustness and sparsity.
Parameter inference for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is of fundamental importance in many scientific applications. While ODE solutions are typically approximated by deterministic algorithms, new research on probabilistic solvers indicates that they produce more reliable parameter estimates by better accounting for numerical errors. However, many ODE systems are highly sensitive to their parameter values. This produces deep local minima in the likelihood function -- a problem which existing probabilistic solvers have yet to resolve. Here, we show that a Bayesian filtering paradigm for probabilistic ODE solution can dramatically reduce sensitivity to parameters by learning from the noisy ODE observations in a data-adaptive manner. Our method is applicable to ODEs with partially unobserved components and with arbitrary non-Gaussian noise. Several examples demonstrate that it is more accurate than existing probabilistic ODE solvers, and even in some cases than the exact ODE likelihood.
In many industrial applications, obtaining labeled observations is not straightforward as it often requires the intervention of human experts or the use of expensive testing equipment. In these circumstances, active learning can be highly beneficial in suggesting the most informative data points to be used when fitting a model. Reducing the number of observations needed for model development alleviates both the computational burden required for training and the operational expenses related to labeling. Online active learning, in particular, is useful in high-volume production processes where the decision about the acquisition of the label for a data point needs to be taken within an extremely short time frame. However, despite the recent efforts to develop online active learning strategies, the behavior of these methods in the presence of outliers has not been thoroughly examined. In this work, we investigate the performance of online active linear regression in contaminated data streams. Our study shows that the currently available query strategies are prone to sample outliers, whose inclusion in the training set eventually degrades the predictive performance of the models. To address this issue, we propose a solution that bounds the search area of a conditional D-optimal algorithm and uses a robust estimator. Our approach strikes a balance between exploring unseen regions of the input space and protecting against outliers. Through numerical simulations, we show that the proposed method is effective in improving the performance of online active learning in the presence of outliers, thus expanding the potential applications of this powerful tool.
This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
We propose a new algorithm for the problem of recovering data that adheres to multiple, heterogeneous low-dimensional structures from linear observations. Focusing on data matrices that are simultaneously row-sparse and low-rank, we propose and analyze an iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) algorithm that is able to leverage both structures. In particular, it optimizes a combination of non-convex surrogates for row-sparsity and rank, a balancing of which is built into the algorithm. We prove locally quadratic convergence of the iterates to a simultaneously structured data matrix in a regime of minimal sample complexity (up to constants and a logarithmic factor), which is known to be impossible for a combination of convex surrogates. In experiments, we show that the IRLS method exhibits favorable empirical convergence, identifying simultaneously row-sparse and low-rank matrices from fewer measurements than state-of-the-art methods.
Demand for reliable statistics at a local area (small area) level has greatly increased in recent years. Traditional area-specific estimators based on probability samples are not adequate because of small sample size or even zero sample size in a local area. As a result, methods based on models linking the areas are widely used. World Bank focused on estimating poverty measures, in particular poverty incidence and poverty gap called FGT measures, using a simulated census method, called ELL, based on a one-fold nested error model for a suitable transformation of the welfare variable. Modified ELL methods leading to significant gain in efficiency over ELL also have been proposed under the one-fold model. An advantage of ELL and modified ELL methods is that distributional assumptions on the random effects in the model are not needed. In this paper, we extend ELL and modified ELL to two-fold nested error models to estimate poverty indicators for areas (say a state) and subareas (say counties within a state). Our simulation results indicate that the modified ELL estimators lead to large efficiency gains over ELL at the area level and subarea level. Further, modified ELL method retaining both area and subarea estimated effects in the model (called MELL2) performs significantly better in terms of mean squared error (MSE) for sampled subareas than the modified ELL retaining only estimated area effect in the model (called MELL1).
Robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) provide a promising framework for computing reliable policies in the face of model errors. Many successful reinforcement learning algorithms build on variations of policy-gradient methods, but adapting these methods to RMDPs has been challenging. As a result, the applicability of RMDPs to large, practical domains remains limited. This paper proposes a new Double-Loop Robust Policy Gradient (DRPG), the first generic policy gradient method for RMDPs. In contrast with prior robust policy gradient algorithms, DRPG monotonically reduces approximation errors to guarantee convergence to a globally optimal policy in tabular RMDPs. We introduce a novel parametric transition kernel and solve the inner loop robust policy via a gradient-based method. Finally, our numerical results demonstrate the utility of our new algorithm and confirm its global convergence properties.
In this paper we investigate panel regression models with interactive fixed effects. We propose two new estimation methods that are based on minimizing convex objective functions. The first method minimizes the sum of squared residuals with a nuclear (trace) norm regularization. The second method minimizes the nuclear norm of the residuals. We establish the consistency of the two resulting estimators. Those estimators have a very important computational advantage compared to the existing least squares (LS) estimator, in that they are defined as minimizers of a convex objective function. In addition, the nuclear norm penalization helps to resolve a potential identification problem for interactive fixed effect models, in particular when the regressors are low-rank and the number of the factors is unknown. We also show how to construct estimators that are asymptotically equivalent to the least squares (LS) estimator in Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2017) by using our nuclear norm regularized or minimized estimators as initial values for a finite number of LS minimizing iteration steps. This iteration avoids any non-convex minimization, while the original LS estimation problem is generally non-convex, and can have multiple local minima.
A parametric class of trust-region algorithms for unconstrained nonconvex optimization is considered where the value of the objective function is never computed. The class contains a deterministic version of the first-order Adagrad method typically used for minimization of noisy function, but also allows the use of (possibly approximate) second-order information when available. The rate of convergence of methods in the class is analyzed and is shown to be identical to that known for first-order optimization methods using both function and gradients values, recovering existing results for purely-first order variants and improving the explicit dependence on problem dimension. This rate is shown to be essentially sharp. A new class of methods is also presented, for which a slightly worse and essentially sharp complexity result holds. Limited numerical experiments show that the new methods' performance may be comparable to that of standard steepest descent, despite using significantly less information, and that this performance is relatively insensitive to noise.
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