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The performance of most causal effect estimators relies on accurate predictions of high-dimensional non-linear functions of the observed data. The remarkable flexibility of modern Machine Learning (ML) methods is perfectly suited to this task. However, data-driven hyperparameter tuning of ML methods requires effective model evaluation to avoid large errors in causal estimates, a task made more challenging because causal inference involves unavailable counterfactuals. Multiple performance-validation metrics have recently been proposed such that practitioners now not only have to make complex decisions about which causal estimators, ML learners and hyperparameters to choose, but also about which evaluation metric to use. This paper, motivated by unclear recommendations, investigates the interplay between the four different aspects of model evaluation for causal effect estimation. We develop a comprehensive experimental setup that involves many commonly used causal estimators, ML methods and evaluation approaches and apply it to four well-known causal inference benchmark datasets. Our results suggest that optimal hyperparameter tuning of ML learners is enough to reach state-of-the-art performance in effect estimation, regardless of estimators and learners. We conclude that most causal estimators are roughly equivalent in performance if tuned thoroughly enough. We also find hyperparameter tuning and model evaluation are much more important than causal estimators and ML methods. Finally, from the significant gap we find in estimation performance of popular evaluation metrics compared with optimal model selection choices, we call for more research into causal model evaluation to unlock the optimum performance not currently being delivered even by state-of-the-art procedures.

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately estimate effect moderation. A recent influx of work has looked into estimating treatment effect heterogeneity using data from multiple randomized controlled trials and/or observational datasets. With many new methods available for assessing treatment effect heterogeneity using multiple studies, it is important to understand which methods are best used in which setting, how the methods compare to one another, and what needs to be done to continue progress in this field. This paper reviews these methods broken down by data setting: aggregate-level data, federated learning, and individual participant-level data. We define the conditional average treatment effect and discuss differences between parametric and nonparametric estimators, and we list key assumptions, both those that are required within a single study and those that are necessary for data combination. After describing existing approaches, we compare and contrast them and reveal open areas for future research. This review demonstrates that there are many possible approaches for estimating treatment effect heterogeneity through the combination of datasets, but that there is substantial work to be done to compare these methods through case studies and simulations, extend them to different settings, and refine them to account for various challenges present in real data.

Personalized decision-making, aiming to derive optimal treatment regimes based on individual characteristics, has recently attracted increasing attention in many fields, such as medicine, social services, and economics. Current literature mainly focuses on estimating treatment regimes from a single source population. In real-world applications, the distribution of a target population can be different from that of the source population. Therefore, treatment regimes learned by existing methods may not generalize well to the target population. Due to privacy concerns and other practical issues, individual-level data from the target population is often not available, which makes treatment regime learning more challenging. We consider the problem of treatment regime estimation when the source and target populations may be heterogeneous, individual-level data is available from the source population, and only the summary information of covariates, such as moments, is accessible from the target population. We develop a weighting framework that tailors a treatment regime for a given target population by leveraging the available summary statistics. Specifically, we propose a calibrated augmented inverse probability weighted estimator of the value function for the target population and estimate an optimal treatment regime by maximizing this estimator within a class of pre-specified regimes. We show that the proposed calibrated estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even with flexible semi/nonparametric models for nuisance function approximation, and the variance of the value estimator can be consistently estimated. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed method using simulation studies and a real application to an eICU dataset as the source sample and a MIMIC-III dataset as the target sample.

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are important to treatment choice. In aggregate analyses, this is usually addressed by measuring the distributional treatment effect (DTE), such as differences in quantiles or tail expectations between treatment groups. Hypothetically, one can similarly fit conditional quantile regressions in each treatment group and take their difference, but this would not be robust to misspecification or provide agnostic best-in-class predictions. We provide a new robust and model-agnostic methodology for learning the conditional DTE (CDTE) for a class of problems that includes conditional quantile treatment effects, conditional super-quantile treatment effects, and conditional treatment effects on coherent risk measures given by $f$-divergences. Our method is based on constructing a special pseudo-outcome and regressing it on covariates using any regression learner. Our method is model-agnostic in that it can provide the best projection of CDTE onto the regression model class. Our method is robust in that even if we learn these nuisances nonparametrically at very slow rates, we can still learn CDTEs at rates that depend on the class complexity and even conduct inferences on linear projections of CDTEs. We investigate the behavior of our proposal in simulations, as well as in a case study of 401(k) eligibility effects on wealth.

Object detection with on-board sensors (e.g., lidar, radar, and camera) play a crucial role in autonomous driving (AD), and these sensors complement each other in modalities. While crowdsensing may potentially exploit these sensors (of huge quantity) to derive more comprehensive knowledge, \textit{federated learning} (FL) appears to be the necessary tool to reach this potential: it enables autonomous vehicles (AVs) to train machine learning models without explicitly sharing raw sensory data. However, the multimodal sensors introduce various data heterogeneity across distributed AVs (e.g., label quantity skews and varied modalities), posing critical challenges to effective FL. To this end, we present AutoFed as a heterogeneity-aware FL framework to fully exploit multimodal sensory data on AVs and thus enable robust AD. Specifically, we first propose a novel model leveraging pseudo-labeling to avoid mistakenly treating unlabeled objects as the background. We also propose an autoencoder-based data imputation method to fill missing data modality (of certain AVs) with the available ones. To further reconcile the heterogeneity, we finally present a client selection mechanism exploiting the similarities among client models to improve both training stability and convergence rate. Our experiments on benchmark dataset confirm that AutoFed substantially improves over status quo approaches in both precision and recall, while demonstrating strong robustness to adverse weather conditions.

Missing data is a systemic problem in practical scenarios that causes noise and bias when estimating treatment effects. This makes treatment effect estimation from data with missingness a particularly tricky endeavour. A key reason for this is that standard assumptions on missingness are rendered insufficient due to the presence of an additional variable, treatment, besides the input (e.g. an individual) and the label (e.g. an outcome). The treatment variable introduces additional complexity with respect to why some variables are missing that is not fully explored by previous work. In our work we introduce mixed confounded missingness (MCM), a new missingness mechanism where some missingness determines treatment selection and other missingness is determined by treatment selection. Given MCM, we show that naively imputing all data leads to poor performing treatment effects models, as the act of imputation effectively removes information necessary to provide unbiased estimates. However, no imputation at all also leads to biased estimates, as missingness determined by treatment introduces bias in covariates. Our solution is selective imputation, where we use insights from MCM to inform precisely which variables should be imputed and which should not. We empirically demonstrate how various learners benefit from selective imputation compared to other solutions for missing data. We highlight that our experiments encompass both average treatment effects and conditional average treatment effects.

Multimodal machine learning is a vibrant multi-disciplinary research field that aims to design computer agents with intelligent capabilities such as understanding, reasoning, and learning through integrating multiple communicative modalities, including linguistic, acoustic, visual, tactile, and physiological messages. With the recent interest in video understanding, embodied autonomous agents, text-to-image generation, and multisensor fusion in application domains such as healthcare and robotics, multimodal machine learning has brought unique computational and theoretical challenges to the machine learning community given the heterogeneity of data sources and the interconnections often found between modalities. However, the breadth of progress in multimodal research has made it difficult to identify the common themes and open questions in the field. By synthesizing a broad range of application domains and theoretical frameworks from both historical and recent perspectives, this paper is designed to provide an overview of the computational and theoretical foundations of multimodal machine learning. We start by defining two key principles of modality heterogeneity and interconnections that have driven subsequent innovations, and propose a taxonomy of 6 core technical challenges: representation, alignment, reasoning, generation, transference, and quantification covering historical and recent trends. Recent technical achievements will be presented through the lens of this taxonomy, allowing researchers to understand the similarities and differences across new approaches. We end by motivating several open problems for future research as identified by our taxonomy.

Few-shot learning (FSL) has emerged as an effective learning method and shows great potential. Despite the recent creative works in tackling FSL tasks, learning valid information rapidly from just a few or even zero samples still remains a serious challenge. In this context, we extensively investigated 200+ latest papers on FSL published in the past three years, aiming to present a timely and comprehensive overview of the most recent advances in FSL along with impartial comparisons of the strengths and weaknesses of the existing works. For the sake of avoiding conceptual confusion, we first elaborate and compare a set of similar concepts including few-shot learning, transfer learning, and meta-learning. Furthermore, we propose a novel taxonomy to classify the existing work according to the level of abstraction of knowledge in accordance with the challenges of FSL. To enrich this survey, in each subsection we provide in-depth analysis and insightful discussion about recent advances on these topics. Moreover, taking computer vision as an example, we highlight the important application of FSL, covering various research hotspots. Finally, we conclude the survey with unique insights into the technology evolution trends together with potential future research opportunities in the hope of providing guidance to follow-up research.

Federated learning (FL) has been developed as a promising framework to leverage the resources of edge devices, enhance customers' privacy, comply with regulations, and reduce development costs. Although many methods and applications have been developed for FL, several critical challenges for practical FL systems remain unaddressed. This paper provides an outlook on FL development, categorized into five emerging directions of FL, namely algorithm foundation, personalization, hardware and security constraints, lifelong learning, and nonstandard data. Our unique perspectives are backed by practical observations from large-scale federated systems for edge devices.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.