In recent decades, technological advances have made it possible to collect large data sets. In this context, the model-based clustering is a very popular, flexible and interpretable methodology for data exploration in a well-defined statistical framework. One of the ironies of the increase of large datasets is that missing values are more frequent. However, traditional ways (as discarding observations with missing values or imputation methods) are not designed for the clustering purpose. In addition, they rarely apply to the general case, though frequent in practice, of Missing Not At Random (MNAR) values, i.e. when the missingness depends on the unobserved data values and possibly on the observed data values. The goal of this paper is to propose a novel approach by embedding MNAR data directly within model-based clustering algorithms. We introduce a selection model for the joint distribution of data and missing-data indicator. It corresponds to a mixture model for the data distribution and a general MNAR model for the missing-data mechanism, which may depend on the underlying classes (unknown) and/or the values of the missing variables themselves. A large set of meaningful MNAR sub-models is derived and the identifiability of the parameters is studied for each of the sub-models, which is usually a key issue for any MNAR proposals. The EM and Stochastic EM algorithms are considered for estimation. Finally, we perform empirical evaluations for the proposed submodels on synthetic data and we illustrate the relevance of our method on a medical register, the TraumaBase (R) dataset.
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Deep clustering outperforms conventional clustering by mutually promoting representation learning and cluster assignment. However, most existing deep clustering methods suffer from two major drawbacks. First, most cluster assignment methods are based on simple distance comparison and highly dependent on the target distribution generated by a handcrafted nonlinear mapping. These facts largely limit the possible performance that deep clustering methods can reach. Second, the clustering results can be easily guided towards wrong direction by the misassigned samples in each cluster. The existing deep clustering methods are incapable of discriminating such samples. To address these issues, a novel modular Self-Evolutionary Clustering (Self-EvoC) framework is constructed, which boosts the clustering performance by classification in a self-supervised manner. Fuzzy theory is used to score the sample membership with probability which evaluates the intermediate clustering result certainty of each sample. Based on which, the most reliable samples can be selected and augmented. The augmented data are employed to fine-tune an off-the-shelf deep network classifier with the labels from the clustering, which results in a model to generate the target distribution. The proposed framework can efficiently discriminate sample outliers and generate better target distribution with the assistance of self-supervised classifier. Extensive experiments indicate that the Self-EvoC remarkably outperforms state-of-the-art deep clustering methods on three benchmark datasets.
Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is conjugate with respect to right-censored data. Eliciting these priors, particularly in the presence of covariates, can be challenging and inference typically relies on computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes. In this paper, we build on recent work that recasts Bayesian inference as assigning a predictive distribution on the unseen values of a population conditional on the observed samples, thus avoiding the need to specify a complex prior. We describe a copula-based predictive update which admits a scalable sequential importance sampling algorithm to perform inference that properly accounts for right-censoring. We provide theoretical justification through an extension of Doob's consistency theorem and illustrate the method on a number of simulated and real data sets, including an example with covariates. Our approach enables analysts to perform Bayesian nonparametric inference through only the specification of a predictive distribution.
The premise of independence among subjects in the same cluster/group often fails in practice, and models that rely on such untenable assumption can produce misleading results. To overcome this severe deficiency, we introduce a new regression model to handle overdispersed and correlated clustered counts. To account for correlation within clusters, we propose a Poisson regression model where the observations within the same cluster are driven by the same latent random effect that follows the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with a parameter that controls the strength of dependence among the individuals. This novel multivariate count model is called Clustered Poisson Birnbaum-Saunders (CPBS) regression. As illustrated in this paper, the CPBS model is analytically tractable, and its moment structure can be explicitly obtained. Estimation of parameters is performed through the maximum likelihood method, and an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is also developed. Simulation results to evaluate the finite-sample performance of our proposed estimators are presented. We also discuss diagnostic tools for checking model adequacy. An empirical application concerning the number of inpatient admissions by individuals to hospital emergency rooms, from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) conducted by the United States Agency for Health Research and Quality, illustrates the usefulness of our proposed methodology.
Despite increasing accessibility to function data, effective methods for flexibly estimating underlying functional trend are still scarce. We thereby develop functional version of trend filtering for estimating trend of functional data indexed by time or on general graph by extending the conventional trend filtering, a powerful nonparametric trend estimation technique, for scalar data. We formulate the new trend filtering by introducing penalty terms based on $L_2$-norm of the differences of adjacent trend functions. We develop an efficient iteration algorithm for optimizing the objective function obtained by orthonormal basis expansion. Furthermore, we introduce additional penalty terms to eliminate redundant basis functions, which leads to automatic adaptation of the number of basis functions. The tuning parameter in the proposed method is selected via cross validation. We demonstrate the proposed method through simulation studies and applications to real world datasets.
We propose a general approach for distance based clustering, using the gradient of the cost function that measures clustering quality with respect to cluster assignments and cluster center positions. The approach is an iterative two step procedure (alternating between cluster assignment and cluster center updates) and is applicable to a wide range of functions, satisfying some mild assumptions. The main advantage of the proposed approach is a simple and computationally cheap update rule. Unlike previous methods that specialize to a specific formulation of the clustering problem, our approach is applicable to a wide range of costs, including non-Bregman clustering methods based on the Huber loss. We analyze the convergence of the proposed algorithm, and show that it converges to the set of appropriately defined fixed points, under arbitrary center initialization. In the special case of Bregman cost functions, the algorithm converges to the set of centroidal Voronoi partitions, which is consistent with prior works. Numerical experiments on real data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Scale has opened new frontiers in natural language processing -- but at a high cost. In response, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) and Switch Transformers have been proposed as an energy efficient path to even larger and more capable language models. But advancing the state-of-the-art across a broad set of natural language tasks has been hindered by training instabilities and uncertain quality during fine-tuning. Our work focuses on these issues and acts as a design guide. We conclude by scaling a sparse model to 269B parameters, with a computational cost comparable to a 32B dense encoder-decoder Transformer (Stable and Transferable Mixture-of-Experts or ST-MoE-32B). For the first time, a sparse model achieves state-of-the-art performance in transfer learning, across a diverse set of tasks including reasoning (SuperGLUE, ARC Easy, ARC Challenge), summarization (XSum, CNN-DM), closed book question answering (WebQA, Natural Questions), and adversarially constructed tasks (Winogrande, ANLI R3).
We study an off-policy contextual pricing problem where the seller has access to samples of prices which customers were previously offered, whether they purchased at that price, and auxiliary features describing the customer and/or item being sold. This is in contrast to the well-studied setting in which samples of the customer's valuation (willingness to pay) are observed. In our setting, the observed data is influenced by the historic pricing policy, and we do not know how customers would have responded to alternative prices. We introduce suitable loss functions for this pricing setting which can be directly optimized to find an effective pricing policy with expected revenue guarantees without the need for estimation of an intermediate demand function. We focus on convex loss functions. This is particularly relevant when linear pricing policies are desired for interpretability reasons, resulting in a tractable convex revenue optimization problem. We further propose generalized hinge and quantile pricing loss functions, which price at a multiplicative factor of the conditional expected value or a particular quantile of the valuation distribution when optimized, despite the valuation data not being observed. We prove expected revenue bounds for these pricing policies respectively when the valuation distribution is log-concave, and provide generalization bounds for the finite sample case. Finally, we conduct simulations on both synthetic and real-world data to demonstrate that this approach is competitive with, and in some settings outperforms, state-of-the-art methods in contextual pricing.
Collaborative filtering (CF), as a fundamental approach for recommender systems, is usually built on the latent factor model with learnable parameters to predict users' preferences towards items. However, designing a proper CF model for a given data is not easy, since the properties of datasets are highly diverse. In this paper, motivated by the recent advances in automated machine learning (AutoML), we propose to design a data-specific CF model by AutoML techniques. The key here is a new framework that unifies state-of-the-art (SOTA) CF methods and splits them into disjoint stages of input encoding, embedding function, interaction function, and prediction function. We further develop an easy-to-use, robust, and efficient search strategy, which utilizes random search and a performance predictor for efficient searching within the above framework. In this way, we can combinatorially generalize data-specific CF models, which have not been visited in the literature, from SOTA ones. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that our method can consistently outperform SOTA ones for various CF tasks. Further experiments verify the rationality of the proposed framework and the efficiency of the search strategy. The searched CF models can also provide insights for exploring more effective methods in the future
In this paper, we propose a one-stage online clustering method called Contrastive Clustering (CC) which explicitly performs the instance- and cluster-level contrastive learning. To be specific, for a given dataset, the positive and negative instance pairs are constructed through data augmentations and then projected into a feature space. Therein, the instance- and cluster-level contrastive learning are respectively conducted in the row and column space by maximizing the similarities of positive pairs while minimizing those of negative ones. Our key observation is that the rows of the feature matrix could be regarded as soft labels of instances, and accordingly the columns could be further regarded as cluster representations. By simultaneously optimizing the instance- and cluster-level contrastive loss, the model jointly learns representations and cluster assignments in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experimental results show that CC remarkably outperforms 17 competitive clustering methods on six challenging image benchmarks. In particular, CC achieves an NMI of 0.705 (0.431) on the CIFAR-10 (CIFAR-100) dataset, which is an up to 19\% (39\%) performance improvement compared with the best baseline.
Multi-source translation is an approach to exploit multiple inputs (e.g. in two different languages) to increase translation accuracy. In this paper, we examine approaches for multi-source neural machine translation (NMT) using an incomplete multilingual corpus in which some translations are missing. In practice, many multilingual corpora are not complete due to the difficulty to provide translations in all of the relevant languages (for example, in TED talks, most English talks only have subtitles for a small portion of the languages that TED supports). Existing studies on multi-source translation did not explicitly handle such situations. This study focuses on the use of incomplete multilingual corpora in multi-encoder NMT and mixture of NMT experts and examines a very simple implementation where missing source translations are replaced by a special symbol <NULL>. These methods allow us to use incomplete corpora both at training time and test time. In experiments with real incomplete multilingual corpora of TED Talks, the multi-source NMT with the <NULL> tokens achieved higher translation accuracies measured by BLEU than those by any one-to-one NMT systems.
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