A Gaussian process is proposed as a model for the posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of a model or expert, conditional on a vec- tor of covariates, from historical predictions in the form of log predictive scores. Assuming Gaussian expert predictions and a Gaussian data generat- ing process, a linear transformation of the predictive score follows a noncen- tral chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom. Motivated by this we develop a non-central chi-squared Gaussian process regression to flexibly model local predictive ability, with the posterior distribution of the latent GP function and kernel hyperparameters sampled by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We show that a cube-root transformation of the log scores is approximately Gaussian with homoscedastic variance, which makes it possible to estimate the model much faster by marginalizing the latent GP function analytically. Linear pools based on learned local predictive ability are applied to predict daily bike usage in Washington DC.
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Processing 是一門開源編程語言(yan)和與之配套的集(ji)成開發(fa)環境（IDE）的名(ming)稱(cheng)。Processing 在電子(zi)藝術和視覺設計社(she)區被(bei)用來教授編程基礎，并運用于大(da)量(liang)的新媒體和互動藝術作品中。
Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently degrades as the data distribution diverges from the training data distribution. Uncertainty estimation offers a solution to overconfident models, communicating when the output should (not) be trusted. Although methods for uncertainty estimation have been developed, they have not been explicitly linked to the field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Furthermore, literature in operations research ignores the actionability component of uncertainty estimation and does not consider distribution shifts. This work proposes a general uncertainty framework, with contributions being threefold: (i) uncertainty estimation in ML models is positioned as an XAI technique, giving local and model-specific explanations; (ii) classification with rejection is used to reduce misclassifications by bringing a human expert in the loop for uncertain observations; (iii) the framework is applied to a case study on neural networks in educational data mining subject to distribution shifts. Uncertainty as XAI improves the model's trustworthiness in downstream decision-making tasks, giving rise to more actionable and robust machine learning systems in operations research.
This work presents an abstract framework for the design, implementation, and analysis of the multiscale spectral generalized finite element method (MS-GFEM), a particular numerical multiscale method originally proposed in [I. Babuska and R. Lipton, Multiscale Model.\;\,Simul., 9 (2011), pp.~373--406]. MS-GFEM is a partition of unity method employing optimal local approximation spaces constructed from local spectral problems. We establish a general local approximation theory demonstrating exponential convergence with respect to local degrees of freedom under certain assumptions, with explicit dependence on key problem parameters. Our framework applies to a broad class of multiscale PDEs with $L^{\infty}$-coefficients in both continuous and discrete, finite element settings, including highly indefinite problems (convection-dominated diffusion, as well as the high-frequency Helmholtz, Maxwell and elastic wave equations with impedance boundary conditions), and higher-order problems. Notably, we prove a local convergence rate of $O(e^{-cn^{1/d}})$ for MS-GFEM for all these problems, improving upon the $O(e^{-cn^{1/(d+1)}})$ rate shown by Babuska and Lipton. Moreover, based on the abstract local approximation theory for MS-GFEM, we establish a unified framework for showing low-rank approximations to multiscale PDEs. This framework applies to the aforementioned problems, proving that the associated Green's functions admit an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d})$-term separable approximation on well-separated domains with error $\epsilon>0$. Our analysis improves and generalizes the result in [M. Bebendorf and W. Hackbusch, Numerische Mathematik, 95 (2003), pp.~1-28] where an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d+1})$-term separable approximation was proved for Poisson-type problems.
We solve constrained optimal transport problems between the laws of solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We consider SDEs with irregular coefficients, making only minimal regularity assumptions. We show that the so-called synchronous coupling is optimal among bicausal couplings, that is couplings that respect the flow of information encoded in the stochastic processes. Our results provide a method to numerically compute the adapted Wasserstein distance between laws of SDEs with irregular coefficients. Moreover, we introduce a transformation-based semi-implicit numerical scheme and establish the first strong convergence result for SDEs with exponentially growing and discontinuous drift.
Causal generative modelling is gaining interest in medical imaging due to its ability to answer interventional and counterfactual queries. Most work focuses on generating counterfactual images that look plausible, using auxiliary classifiers to enforce effectiveness of simulated interventions. We investigate pitfalls in this approach, discovering the issue of attribute amplification, where unrelated attributes are spuriously affected during interventions, leading to biases across protected characteristics and disease status. We show that attribute amplification is caused by the use of hard labels in the counterfactual training process and propose soft counterfactual fine-tuning to mitigate this issue. Our method substantially reduces the amplification effect while maintaining effectiveness of generated images, demonstrated on a large chest X-ray dataset. Our work makes an important advancement towards more faithful and unbiased causal modelling in medical imaging.
Clustering of publication networks is an efficient way to obtain classifications of large collections of research publications. Such classifications can be used to, e.g., detect research topics, normalize citation relations, or explore the publication output of a unit. Citation networks can be created using a variety of approaches. Best practices to obtain classifications using clustering have been investigated, in particular the performance of different publication-publication relatedness measures. However, evaluation of different approaches to normalization of citation relations have not been explored to the same extent. In this paper, we evaluate five approaches to normalization of direct citation relations with respect to clustering solution quality in four data sets. A sixth approach is evaluated using no normalization. To assess the quality of clustering solutions, we use three measures. (1) We compare the clustering solution to the reference lists of a set of publications using the Adjusted Rand Index. (2) Using the Sihouette width measure, we quantity to which extent the publications have relations to other clusters than the one they have been assigned to. (3) We propose a measure that captures publications that have probably been inaccurately assigned. The results clearly show that normalization is preferred over unnormalized direct citation relations. Furthermore, the results indicate that the fractional normalization approach, which can be considered the standard approach, causes inaccurate assignments. The geometric normalization approach has a similar performance as the fractional approach regarding Adjusted Rand Index and Silhouette width but leads to fewer inaccurate assignments. We therefore believe that the geometric approach may be preferred over the fractional approach.
In many communication contexts, the capabilities of the involved actors cannot be known beforehand, whether it is a cell, a plant, an insect, or even a life form unknown to Earth. Regardless of the recipient, the message space and time scale could be too fast, too slow, too large, or too small and may never be decoded. Therefore, it pays to devise a way to encode messages agnostic of space and time scales. We propose the use of fractal functions as self-executable infinite-frequency carriers for sending messages, given their properties of structural self-similarity and scale invariance. We call it `fractal messaging'. Starting from a spatial embedding, we introduce a framework for a space-time scale-free messaging approach to this challenge. When considering a space and time-agnostic framework for message transmission, it would be interesting to encode a message such that it could be decoded at several spatio-temporal scales. Hence, the core idea of the framework proposed herein is to encode a binary message as waves along infinitely many frequencies (in power-like distributions) and amplitudes, transmit such a message, and then decode and reproduce it. To do so, the components of the Weierstrass function, a known fractal, are used as carriers of the message. Each component will have its amplitude modulated to embed the binary stream, allowing for a space-time-agnostic approach to messaging.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss other binomial regression models obtained through alternating link functions and prove the existence of similar penalized maximum likelihood estimates for such models.
Studying the function spaces defined by neural networks helps to understand the corresponding learning models and their inductive bias. While in some limits neural networks correspond to function spaces that are reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, these regimes do not capture the properties of the networks used in practice. In contrast, in this paper we show that deep neural networks define suitable reproducing kernel Banach spaces. These spaces are equipped with norms that enforce a form of sparsity, enabling them to adapt to potential latent structures within the input data and their representations. In particular, leveraging the theory of reproducing kernel Banach spaces, combined with variational results, we derive representer theorems that justify the finite architectures commonly employed in applications. Our study extends analogous results for shallow networks and can be seen as a step towards considering more practically plausible neural architectures.
Reconstructing a dynamic object with affine motion in computerized tomography (CT) leads to motion artifacts if the motion is not taken into account. In most cases, the actual motion is neither known nor can be determined easily. As a consequence, the respective model that describes CT is incomplete. The iterative RESESOP-Kaczmarz method can - under certain conditions and by exploiting the modeling error - reconstruct dynamic objects at different time points even if the exact motion is unknown. However, the method is very time-consuming. To speed the reconstruction process up and obtain better results, we combine the following three steps: 1. RESESOP-Kacmarz with only a few iterations is implemented to reconstruct the object at different time points. 2. The motion is estimated via landmark detection, e.g. using deep learning. 3. The estimated motion is integrated into the reconstruction process, allowing the use of dynamic filtered backprojection. We give a short review of all methods involved and present numerical results as a proof of principle.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss multinomial logistic regression models. Unlike the binomial regression case, we show through an example that the Jeffreys-prior penalty term does not necessarily diverge to negative infinity as the parameter diverges.
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