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We introduce a novel approach for detecting distribution shifts that negatively impact the performance of machine learning models in continuous production environments, which requires no access to ground truth data labels. It builds upon the work of Podkopaev and Ramdas [2022], who address scenarios where labels are available for tracking model errors over time. Our solution extends this framework to work in the absence of labels, by employing a proxy for the true error. This proxy is derived using the predictions of a trained error estimator. Experiments show that our method has high power and false alarm control under various distribution shifts, including covariate and label shifts and natural shifts over geography and time.

We provide a framework for efficiently estimating impulse response functions with Local Projections (LPs). Our approach offers a Bayesian treatment for LPs with Instrumental Variables, accommodating multiple shocks and instruments per shock, accounts for autocorrelation in multi-step forecasts by jointly modeling all LPs as a seemingly unrelated system of equations, defines a flexible yet parsimonious joint prior for impulse responses based on a Gaussian Process, allows for joint inference about the entire vector of impulse responses, and uses all available data across horizons by imputing missing values.

NREL's computational sciences center hosts the largest high performance computing (HPC) capabilities dedicated to sustainability research while functioning as a living laboratory for sustainable computing. NREL's HPC capabilities support the research needs of the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). In ten years of operation, HPC use in EERE-sponsored sustainability research has grown by a factor of 30. This paper analyzes this research portfolio, providing examples of individual use cases. The paper documents NREL's history of operating one of the world's most sustainable data centers while examining pathways to improving sustainability beyond reduction of PUE. This paper concludes by examining the unique opportunities created for sustainable computing research created by combining an HPC system dedicated to sustainability research and a research program in sustainable computing.

Recent advances in GPU-based parallel simulation have enabled practitioners to collect large amounts of data and train complex control policies using deep reinforcement learning (RL), on commodity GPUs. However, such successes for RL in robotics have been limited to tasks sufficiently simulated by fast rigid-body dynamics. Simulation techniques for soft bodies are comparatively several orders of magnitude slower, thereby limiting the use of RL due to sample complexity requirements. To address this challenge, this paper presents both a novel RL algorithm and a simulation platform to enable scaling RL on tasks involving rigid bodies and deformables. We introduce Soft Analytic Policy Optimization (SAPO), a maximum entropy first-order model-based actor-critic RL algorithm, which uses first-order analytic gradients from differentiable simulation to train a stochastic actor to maximize expected return and entropy. Alongside our approach, we develop Rewarped, a parallel differentiable multiphysics simulation platform that supports simulating various materials beyond rigid bodies. We re-implement challenging manipulation and locomotion tasks in Rewarped, and show that SAPO outperforms baselines over a range of tasks that involve interaction between rigid bodies, articulations, and deformables.

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental task in modern statistics and machine learning. The conditional randomization test (CRT) was recently introduced to test whether two random variables, $X$ and $Y$, are conditionally independent given a potentially high-dimensional set of random variables, $Z$. The CRT operates exceptionally well under the assumption that the conditional distribution $X|Z$ is known. However, since this distribution is typically unknown in practice, accurately approximating it becomes crucial. In this paper, we propose using conditional diffusion models (CDMs) to learn the distribution of $X|Z$. Theoretically and empirically, it is shown that CDMs closely approximate the true conditional distribution. Furthermore, CDMs offer a more accurate approximation of $X|Z$ compared to GANs, potentially leading to a CRT that performs better than those based on GANs. To accommodate complex dependency structures, we utilize a computationally efficient classifier-based conditional mutual information (CMI) estimator as our test statistic. The proposed testing procedure performs effectively without requiring assumptions about specific distribution forms or feature dependencies, and is capable of handling mixed-type conditioning sets that include both continuous and discrete variables. Theoretical analysis shows that our proposed test achieves a valid control of the type I error. A series of experiments on synthetic data demonstrates that our new test effectively controls both type-I and type-II errors, even in high dimensional scenarios.

Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes with communication (Dec-POMDP-Com) provide a framework for multiagent decision making under uncertainty, but the NEXP-complete complexity renders solutions intractable in general. While sharing actions and observations can reduce the complexity to PSPACE-complete, we propose an approach that bridges POMDPs and Dec-POMDPs by communicating only suggested joint actions, eliminating the need to share observations while maintaining performance comparable to fully centralized planning and execution. Our algorithm estimates joint beliefs using shared actions to prune infeasible beliefs. Each agent maintains possible belief sets for other agents, pruning them based on suggested actions to form an estimated joint belief usable with any centralized policy. This approach requires solving a POMDP for each agent, reducing computational complexity while preserving performance. We demonstrate its effectiveness on several Dec-POMDP benchmarks showing performance comparable to centralized methods when shared actions enable effective belief pruning. This action-based communication framework offers a natural avenue for integrating human-agent cooperation, opening new directions for scalable multiagent planning under uncertainty, with applications in both autonomous systems and human-agent teams.

Network-based intrusion detection system (NIDS) monitors network traffic for malicious activities, forming the frontline defense against increasing attacks over information infrastructures. Although promising, our quantitative analysis shows that existing methods perform inconsistently in declaring various attacks, and perform poorly in few-shot intrusion detections. We reveal that the underlying cause is entangled distributions of flow features. This motivates us to propose DIDS-MFL, a disentangled intrusion detection method to handle various intrusion detection scenarios. DIDS-MFL involves two key components, respectively: a double Disentanglementbased Intrusion Detection System (DIDS) and a plug-and-play Multi-scale Few-shot Learning-based (MFL) intrusion detection module. Specifically, the proposed DIDS first disentangles traffic features by a non-parameterized optimization, automatically differentiating tens and hundreds of complex features of various attacks. Such differentiated features will be further disentangled to highlight the attack-specific features. Our DIDS additionally uses a novel graph diffusion method that dynamically fuses the network topology in evolving data streams. Furthermore, the proposed MFL involves an alternating optimization framework to address the entangled representations in few-shot traffic threats with rigorous derivation. MFL first captures multiscale information in latent space to distinguish attack-specific information and then optimizes the disentanglement term to highlight the attack-specific information. Finally, MFL fuses and alternately solves them in an end-to-end way. Experiments show the superiority of our proposed DIDS-MFL. Our code is available at //github.com/qcydm/DIDS-MFL

Feature selection is crucial for pinpointing relevant features in high-dimensional datasets, mitigating the 'curse of dimensionality,' and enhancing machine learning performance. Traditional feature selection methods for classification use data from all classes to select features for each class. This paper explores feature selection methods that select features for each class separately, using class models based on low-rank generative methods and introducing a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) feature selection criterion. This novel approach has theoretical true feature recovery guarantees under certain assumptions and is shown to outperform some existing feature selection methods on standard classification datasets.

We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.

The dominant sequence transduction models are based on complex recurrent or convolutional neural networks in an encoder-decoder configuration. The best performing models also connect the encoder and decoder through an attention mechanism. We propose a new simple network architecture, the Transformer, based solely on attention mechanisms, dispensing with recurrence and convolutions entirely. Experiments on two machine translation tasks show these models to be superior in quality while being more parallelizable and requiring significantly less time to train. Our model achieves 28.4 BLEU on the WMT 2014 English-to-German translation task, improving over the existing best results, including ensembles by over 2 BLEU. On the WMT 2014 English-to-French translation task, our model establishes a new single-model state-of-the-art BLEU score of 41.8 after training for 3.5 days on eight GPUs, a small fraction of the training costs of the best models from the literature. We show that the Transformer generalizes well to other tasks by applying it successfully to English constituency parsing both with large and limited training data.