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In this paper, we propose a method for estimating in-hand object poses using proprioception and tactile feedback from a bimanual robotic system. Our method addresses the problem of reducing pose uncertainty through a sequence of frictional contact interactions between the grasped objects. As part of our method, we propose 1) a tool segmentation routine that facilitates contact location and object pose estimation, 2) a loss that allows reasoning over solution consistency between interactions, and 3) a loss to promote converging to object poses and contact locations that explain the external force-torque experienced by each arm. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method in a task-based demonstration both in simulation and on a real-world bimanual platform and show significant improvement in object pose estimation over single interactions. Visit www.mmintlab.com/multiscope/ for code and videos.

In many life science experiments or medical studies, subjects are repeatedly observed and measurements are collected in factorial designs with multivariate data. The analysis of such multivariate data is typically based on multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) or mixed models, requiring complete data, and certain assumption on the underlying parametric distribution such as continuity or a specific covariance structure, e.g., compound symmetry. However, these methods are usually not applicable when discrete data or even ordered categorical data are present. In such cases, nonparametric rank-based methods that do not require stringent distributional assumptions are the preferred choice. However, in the multivariate case, most rank-based approaches have only been developed for complete observations. It is the aim of this work is to develop asymptotic correct procedures that are capable of handling missing values, allowing for singular covariance matrices and are applicable for ordinal or ordered categorical data. This is achieved by applying a wild bootstrap procedure in combination with quadratic form-type test statistics. Beyond proving their asymptotic correctness, extensive simulation studies validate their applicability for small samples. Finally, two real data examples are analyzed.

Gaussian processes scale prohibitively with the size of the dataset. In response, many approximation methods have been developed, which inevitably introduce approximation error. This additional source of uncertainty, due to limited computation, is entirely ignored when using the approximate posterior. Therefore in practice, GP models are often as much about the approximation method as they are about the data. Here, we develop a new class of methods that provides consistent estimation of the combined uncertainty arising from both the finite number of data observed and the finite amount of computation expended. The most common GP approximations map to an instance in this class, such as methods based on the Cholesky factorization, conjugate gradients, and inducing points. For any method in this class, we prove (i) convergence of its posterior mean in the associated RKHS, (ii) decomposability of its combined posterior covariance into mathematical and computational covariances, and (iii) that the combined variance is a tight worst-case bound for the squared error between the method's posterior mean and the latent function. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the consequences of ignoring computational uncertainty and show how implicitly modeling it improves generalization performance on benchmark datasets.

Towards safe autonomous driving (AD), we consider the problem of learning models that accurately capture the diversity and tail quantiles of human driver behavior probability distributions, in interaction with an AD vehicle. Such models, which predict drivers' continuous actions from their states, are particularly relevant for closing the gap between AD simulation and reality. To this end, we adapt two flexible frameworks for this setting that avoid strong distributional assumptions: (1)~quantile regression (based on the titled absolute loss), and (2)~autoregressive quantile flows (a version of normalizing flows). Training happens in a behavior cloning-fashion. We evaluate our approach in a one-step prediction, as well as in multi-step simulation rollouts. We use the highD dataset consisting of driver trajectories on several highways. We report quantitative results using the tilted absolute loss as metric, give qualitative examples showing that realistic extremal behavior can be learned, and discuss the main insights.

We study the problem of multi-agent coordination in unpredictable and partially observable environments, that is, environments whose future evolution is unknown a priori and that can only be partially observed. We are motivated by the future of autonomy that involves multiple robots coordinating actions in dynamic, unstructured, and partially observable environments to complete complex tasks such as target tracking, environmental mapping, and area monitoring. Such tasks are often modeled as submodular maximization coordination problems due to the information overlap among the robots. We introduce the first submodular coordination algorithm with bandit feedback and bounded tracking regret -- bandit feedback is the robots' ability to compute in hindsight only the effect of their chosen actions, instead of all the alternative actions that they could have chosen instead, due to the partial observability; and tracking regret is the algorithm's suboptimality with respect to the optimal time-varying actions that fully know the future a priori. The bound gracefully degrades with the environments' capacity to change adversarially, quantifying how often the robots should re-select actions to learn to coordinate as if they fully knew the future a priori. The algorithm generalizes the seminal Sequential Greedy algorithm by Fisher et al. to the bandit setting, by leveraging submodularity and algorithms for the problem of tracking the best action. We validate our algorithm in simulated scenarios of multi-target tracking.

Active search, in applications like environment monitoring or disaster response missions, involves autonomous agents detecting targets in a search space using decision making algorithms that adapt to the history of their observations. Active search algorithms must contend with two types of uncertainty: detection uncertainty and location uncertainty. The more common approach in robotics is to focus on location uncertainty and remove detection uncertainty by thresholding the detection probability to zero or one. In contrast, it is common in the sparse signal processing literature to assume the target location is accurate and instead focus on the uncertainty of its detection. In this work, we first propose an inference method to jointly handle both target detection and location uncertainty. We then build a decision making algorithm on this inference method that uses Thompson sampling to enable decentralized multi-agent active search. We perform simulation experiments to show that our algorithms outperform competing baselines that only account for either target detection or location uncertainty. We finally demonstrate the real world transferability of our algorithms using a realistic simulation environment we created on the Unreal Engine 4 platform with an AirSim plugin.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the problem of estimating the value of a target policy using historical data collected under a different logging policy. OPE methods typically assume overlap between the target and logging policy, enabling solutions based on importance weighting and/or imputation. In this work, we approach OPE without assuming either overlap or a well-specified model by considering a strategy based on partial identification under non-parametric assumptions on the conditional mean function, focusing especially on Lipschitz smoothness. Under such smoothness assumptions, we formulate a pair of linear programs whose optimal values upper and lower bound the contributions of the no-overlap region to the off-policy value. We show that these linear programs have a concise closed form solution that can be computed efficiently and that their solutions converge, under the Lipschitz assumption, to the sharp partial identification bounds on the off-policy value. Furthermore, we show that the rate of convergence is minimax optimal, up to log factors. We deploy our methods on two semi-synthetic examples, and obtain informative and valid bounds that are tighter than those possible without smoothness assumptions.

This paper studies the open problem of conformalized entry prediction in a row/column-exchangeable matrix. The matrix setting presents novel and unique challenges, but there exists little work on this interesting topic. We meticulously define the problem, differentiate it from closely related problems, and rigorously delineate the boundary between achievable and impossible goals. We then propose two practical algorithms. The first method provides a fast emulation of the full conformal prediction, while the second method leverages the technique of algorithmic stability for acceleration. Both methods are computationally efficient and can effectively safeguard coverage validity in presence of arbitrary missing pattern. Further, we quantify the impact of missingness on prediction accuracy and establish fundamental limit results. Empirical evidence from synthetic and real-world data sets corroborates the superior performance of our proposed methods.

Conventional Gaussian process regression exclusively assumes the existence of noise in the output data of model observations. In many scientific and engineering applications, however, the input locations of observational data may also be compromised with uncertainties owing to modeling assumptions, measurement errors, etc. In this work, we propose a Bayesian method that integrates the variability of input data into Gaussian process regression. Considering two types of observables -- noise-corrupted outputs with fixed inputs and those with prior-distribution-defined uncertain inputs, a posterior distribution is estimated via a Bayesian framework to infer the uncertain data locations. Thereafter, such quantified uncertainties of inputs are incorporated into Gaussian process predictions by means of marginalization. The effectiveness of this new regression technique is demonstrated through several numerical examples, in which a consistently good performance of generalization is observed, while a substantial reduction in the predictive uncertainties is achieved by the Bayesian inference of uncertain inputs.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.