This paper assesses when the validity of difference-in-differences and related estimators depends on functional form. We provide a novel characterization: the parallel trends assumption holds under all strictly monotonic transformations of the outcome if and only if a stronger "parallel trends"-type condition holds for the cumulative distribution function of untreated potential outcomes. This condition for parallel trends to be insensitive to functional form is satisfied if and essentially only if the population can be partitioned into a subgroup for which treatment is effectively randomly assigned and a remaining subgroup for which the distribution of untreated potential outcomes is stable over time. We introduce falsification tests for the insensitivity of parallel trends to functional form. We also show that it is impossible to construct any estimator that is consistent for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) without either imposing functional form restrictions or imposing assumptions that identify the full distribution of untreated potential outcomes. Our results suggest that researchers who wish to point-identify the ATT should either (i) argue treatment is as-if randomly assigned, (ii) provide a method for inferring the full counterfactual distribution for the treated group, or (iii) justify the validity of the specific chosen functional form.
Given its status as a classic problem and its importance to both theoreticians and practitioners, edit distance provides an excellent lens through which to understand how the theoretical analysis of algorithms impacts practical implementations. From an applied perspective, the goals of theoretical analysis are to predict the empirical performance of an algorithm and to serve as a yardstick to design novel algorithms that perform well in practice. In this paper, we systematically survey the types of theoretical analysis techniques that have been applied to edit distance and evaluate the extent to which each one has achieved these two goals. These techniques include traditional worst-case analysis, worst-case analysis parametrized by edit distance or entropy or compressibility, average-case analysis, semi-random models, and advice-based models. We find that the track record is mixed. On one hand, two algorithms widely used in practice have been born out of theoretical analysis and their empirical performance is captured well by theoretical predictions. On the other hand, all the algorithms developed using theoretical analysis as a yardstick since then have not had any practical relevance. We conclude by discussing the remaining open problems and how they can be tackled.
Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.
Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors. In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on ideas from conformal prediction, which can wrap around any survival prediction algorithm to produce calibrated, covariate-dependent lower predictive bounds on survival times. In the Type I right-censoring setting, when the censoring times are completely exogenous, the lower predictive bounds have guaranteed coverage in finite samples without any assumptions other than that of operating on independent and identically distributed data points. Under a more general conditionally independent censoring assumption, the bounds satisfy a doubly robust property which states the following: marginal coverage is approximately guaranteed if either the censoring mechanism or the conditional survival function is estimated well. Further, we demonstrate that the lower predictive bounds remain valid and informative for other types of censoring. The validity and efficiency of our procedure are demonstrated on synthetic data and real COVID-19 data from the UK Biobank.
While algorithms for planar graphs have received a lot of attention, few papers have focused on the additional power that one gets from assuming an embedding of the graph is available. While in the classic sequential setting, this assumption gives no additional power (as a planar graph can be embedded in linear time), we show that this is far from being the case in other settings. We assume that the embedding is straight-line, but our methods also generalize to non-straight-line embeddings. Specifically, we focus on sublinear-time computation and massively parallel computation (MPC). Our main technical contribution is a sublinear-time algorithm for computing a relaxed version of an $r$-division. We then show how this can be used to estimate Lipschitz additive graph parameters. This includes, for example, the maximum matching, maximum independent set, or the minimum dominating set. We also show how this can be used to solve some property testing problems with respect to the vertex edit distance. In the second part of our paper, we show an MPC algorithm that computes an $r$-division of the input graph. We show how this can be used to solve various classical graph problems with space per machine of $O(n^{2/3+\epsilon})$ for some $\epsilon>0$, and while performing $O(1)$ rounds. This includes for example approximate shortest paths or the minimum spanning tree. Our results also imply an improved MPC algorithm for Euclidean minimum spanning tree.
Applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the latent states of the controlled system, that is, they act under partial observability of the states, are ubiquitous. Partially observable RL can be notoriously difficult -- well-known information-theoretic results show that learning partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires an exponential number of samples in the worst case. Yet, this does not rule out the existence of large subclasses of POMDPs over which learning is tractable. In this paper we identify such a subclass, which we call weakly revealing POMDPs. This family rules out the pathological instances of POMDPs where observations are uninformative to a degree that makes learning hard. We prove that for weakly revealing POMDPs, a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to guarantee polynomial sample complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provably sample-efficient result for learning from interactions in overcomplete POMDPs, where the number of latent states can be larger than the number of observations.
In the past ten years there have been significant developments in optimization of transcoding parameters on a per-clip rather than per-genre basis. In our recent work we have presented per-clip optimization for the Lagrangian multiplier in Rate controlled compression, which yielded BD-Rate improvements of approximately 2\% across a corpus of videos using HEVC. However, in a video streaming application, the focus is on optimizing the rate/distortion tradeoff at a particular bitrate and not on average across a range of performance. We observed in previous work that a particular multiplier might give BD rate improvements over a certain range of bitrates, but not the entire range. Using different parameters across the range would improve gains overall. Therefore here we present a framework for choosing the best Lagrangian multiplier on a per-operating point basis across a range of bitrates. In effect, we are trying to find the para-optimal gain across bitrate and distortion for a single clip. In the experiments presented we employ direct optimization techniques to estimate this Lagrangian parameter path approximately 2,000 video clips. The clips are primarily from the YouTube-UGC dataset. We optimize both for bitrate savings as well as distortion metrics (PSNR, SSIM).
We study the problem of testing whether a function $f: \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}$ is a polynomial of degree at most $d$ in the \emph{distribution-free} testing model. Here, the distance between functions is measured with respect to an unknown distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over $\mathbb{R}^n$ from which we can draw samples. In contrast to previous work, we do not assume that $\mathcal{D}$ has finite support. We design a tester that given query access to $f$, and sample access to $\mathcal{D}$, makes $(d/\varepsilon)^{O(1)}$ many queries to $f$, accepts with probability $1$ if $f$ is a polynomial of degree $d$, and rejects with probability at least $2/3$ if every degree-$d$ polynomial $P$ disagrees with $f$ on a set of mass at least $\varepsilon$ with respect to $\mathcal{D}$. Our result also holds under mild assumptions when we receive only a polynomial number of bits of precision for each query to $f$, or when $f$ can only be queried on rational points representable using a logarithmic number of bits. Along the way, we prove a new stability theorem for multivariate polynomials that may be of independent interest.
We study the distributed minimum spanning tree (MST) problem, a fundamental problem in distributed computing. It is well-known that distributed MST can be solved in $\tilde{O}(D+\sqrt{n})$ rounds in the standard CONGEST model (where $n$ is the network size and $D$ is the network diameter) and this is essentially the best possible round complexity (up to logarithmic factors). However, in resource-constrained networks such as ad hoc wireless and sensor networks, nodes spending so much time can lead to significant spending of resources such as energy. Motivated by the above consideration, we study distributed algorithms for MST under the \emph{sleeping model} [Chatterjee et al., PODC 2020], a model for design and analysis of resource-efficient distributed algorithms. In the sleeping model, a node can be in one of two modes in any round -- \emph{sleeping} or \emph{awake} (unlike the traditional model where nodes are always awake). Only the rounds in which a node is \emph{awake} are counted, while \emph{sleeping} rounds are ignored. A node spends resources only in the awake rounds and hence the main goal is to minimize the \emph{awake complexity} of a distributed algorithm, the worst-case number of rounds any node is awake. We present deterministic and randomized distributed MST algorithms that have an \emph{optimal} awake complexity of $O(\log n)$ time with a matching lower bound. We also show that our randomized awake-optimal algorithm has essentially the best possible round complexity by presenting a lower bound of $\tilde{\Omega}(n)$ on the product of the awake and round complexity of any distributed algorithm (including randomized) that outputs an MST, where $\tilde{\Omega}$ hides a $1/(\text{polylog } n)$ factor.
Guitar tablature transcription is an important but understudied problem within the field of music information retrieval. Traditional signal processing approaches offer only limited performance on the task, and there is little acoustic data with transcription labels for training machine learning models. However, guitar transcription labels alone are more widely available in the form of tablature, which is commonly shared among guitarists online. In this work, a collection of symbolic tablature is leveraged to estimate the pairwise likelihood of notes on the guitar. The output layer of a baseline tablature transcription model is reformulated, such that an inhibition loss can be incorporated to discourage the co-activation of unlikely note pairs. This naturally enforces playability constraints for guitar, and yields tablature which is more consistent with the symbolic data used to estimate pairwise likelihoods. With this methodology, we show that symbolic tablature can be used to shape the distribution of a tablature transcription model's predictions, even when little acoustic data is available.
There are many important high dimensional function classes that have fast agnostic learning algorithms when strong assumptions on the distribution of examples can be made, such as Gaussianity or uniformity over the domain. But how can one be sufficiently confident that the data indeed satisfies the distributional assumption, so that one can trust in the output quality of the agnostic learning algorithm? We propose a model by which to systematically study the design of tester-learner pairs $(\mathcal{A},\mathcal{T})$, such that if the distribution on examples in the data passes the tester $\mathcal{T}$ then one can safely trust the output of the agnostic learner $\mathcal{A}$ on the data. To demonstrate the power of the model, we apply it to the classical problem of agnostically learning halfspaces under the standard Gaussian distribution and present a tester-learner pair with a combined run-time of $n^{\tilde{O}(1/\epsilon^4)}$. This qualitatively matches that of the best known ordinary agnostic learning algorithms for this task. In contrast, finite sample Gaussian distribution testers do not exist for the $L_1$ and EMD distance measures. A key step in the analysis is a novel characterization of concentration and anti-concentration properties of a distribution whose low-degree moments approximately match those of a Gaussian. We also use tools from polynomial approximation theory. In contrast, we show strong lower bounds on the combined run-times of tester-learner pairs for the problems of agnostically learning convex sets under the Gaussian distribution and for monotone Boolean functions under the uniform distribution over $\{0,1\}^n$. Through these lower bounds we exhibit natural problems where there is a dramatic gap between standard agnostic learning run-time and the run-time of the best tester-learner pair.