Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in treatment effect estimation to support decision-making in a relatively small sample size setting. Our proposed model places Gaussian process priors on the nonparametric components of a semiparametric model called a partially linear model. This model formulation has three advantages. First, we can analytically compute the posterior distribution of a treatment effect without relying on the computationally demanding posterior approximation. Second, we can guarantee that the posterior distribution concentrates around the true one as the sample size goes to infinity. Third, we can incorporate prior knowledge about a treatment effect into the prior distribution, improving the estimation efficiency. Our experimental results show that even in the small sample size setting, our method can accurately estimate the heterogeneous treatment effects and effectively quantify its estimation uncertainty.
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Sensor devices have been increasingly used in engineering and health studies recently, and the captured multi-dimensional activity and vital sign signals can be studied in association with health outcomes to inform public health. The common approach is the scalar-on-function regression model, in which health outcomes are the scalar responses while high-dimensional sensor signals are the functional covariates, but how to effectively interpret results becomes difficult. In this study, we propose a new Functional Adaptive Double-Sparsity (FadDoS) estimator based on functional regularization of sparse group lasso with multiple functional predictors, which can achieve global sparsity via functional variable selection and local sparsity via zero-subinterval identification within coefficient functions. We prove that the FadDoS estimator converges at a bounded rate and satisfies the oracle property under mild conditions. Extensive simulation studies confirm the theoretical properties and exhibit excellent performances compared to existing approaches. Application to a Kinect sensor study that utilized an advanced motion sensing device tracking human multiple joint movements and conducted among community-dwelling elderly demonstrates how the FadDoS estimator can effectively characterize the detailed association between joint movements and physical health assessments. The proposed method is not only effective in Kinect sensor analysis but also applicable to broader fields, where multi-dimensional sensor signals are collected simultaneously, to expand the use of sensor devices in health studies and facilitate sensor data analysis.
We introduce a new mean-field ODE and corresponding interacting particle systems (IPS) for sampling from an unnormalized target density. The IPS are gradient-free, available in closed form, and only require the ability to sample from a reference density and compute the (unnormalized) target-to-reference density ratio. The mean-field ODE is obtained by solving a Poisson equation for a velocity field that transports samples along the geometric mixture of the two densities, which is the path of a particular Fisher-Rao gradient flow. We employ a RKHS ansatz for the velocity field, which makes the Poisson equation tractable and enables discretization of the resulting mean-field ODE over finite samples. The mean-field ODE can be additionally be derived from a discrete-time perspective as the limit of successive linearizations of the Monge-Amp\`ere equations within a framework known as sample-driven optimal transport. We introduce a stochastic variant of our approach and demonstrate empirically that our IPS can produce high-quality samples from varied target distributions, outperforming comparable gradient-free particle systems and competitive with gradient-based alternatives.
While individual robots are becoming increasingly capable, with new sensors and actuators, the complexity of expected missions increased exponentially in comparison. To cope with this complexity, heterogeneous teams of robots have become a significant research interest in recent years. Making effective use of the robots and their unique skills in a team is challenging. Dynamic runtime conditions often make static task allocations infeasible, therefore requiring a dynamic, capability-aware allocation of tasks to team members. To this end, we propose and implement a system that allows a user to specify missions using Bheavior Trees (BTs), which can then, at runtime, be dynamically allocated to the current robot team. The system allows to statically model an individual robot's capabilities within our ros_bt_py BT framework. It offers a runtime auction system to dynamically allocate tasks to the most capable robot in the current team. The system leverages utility values and pre-conditions to ensure that the allocation improves the overall mission execution quality while preventing faulty assignments. To evaluate the system, we simulated a find-and-decontaminate mission with a team of three heterogeneous robots and analyzed the utilization and overall mission times as metrics. Our results show that our system can improve the overall effectiveness of a team while allowing for intuitive mission specification and flexibility in the team composition.
Dimensionality reduction methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis, are central to many problems in data science. There are, however, serious and well-understood challenges to finding robust low dimensional approximations for data with significant heteroskedastic noise. This paper introduces a relaxed version of Minimum Trace Factor Analysis (MTFA), a convex optimization method with roots dating back to the work of Ledermann in 1940. This relaxation is particularly effective at not overfitting to heteroskedastic perturbations and addresses the commonly cited Heywood cases in factor analysis and the recently identified "curse of ill-conditioning" for existing spectral methods. We provide theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the resulting low rank subspace and the convergence rate of the proposed algorithm to compute that matrix. We develop a number of interesting connections to existing methods, including HeteroPCA, Lasso, and Soft-Impute, to fill an important gap in the already large literature on low rank matrix estimation. Numerical experiments benchmark our results against several recent proposals for dealing with heteroskedastic noise.
In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal effects. For binary treatments, efficient estimators for the direct and indirect effects are presented in Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser (2012) based on the influence function of the parameter of interest. These estimators possess desirable properties, such as multiple-robustness and asymptotic normality, while allowing for slower than root-n rates of convergence for the nuisance parameters. However, in settings involving continuous treatments, these influence function-based estimators are not readily applicable without making strong parametric assumptions. In this work, utilizing a kernel-smoothing approach, we propose an estimator suitable for settings with continuous treatments inspired by the influence function-based estimator of Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser (2012). Our proposed approach employs cross-fitting, relaxing the smoothness requirements on the nuisance functions, and allowing them to be estimated at slower rates than the target parameter. Additionally, similar to influence function-based estimators, our proposed estimator is multiply robust and asymptotically normal, making it applicable for inference in settings where a parametric model cannot be assumed.
Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) can be expressed as weighted pseudo-outcome regressions (PORs). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. For example, we point out that R-Learning implicitly performs a POR with inverse-variance weights (IVWs). In the CATE setting, IVWs mitigate the instability associated with inverse-propensity weights, and lead to convenient simplifications of bias terms. We demonstrate the superior performance of IVWs in simulations, and derive convergence rates for IVWs that are, to our knowledge, the fastest yet shown without assuming knowledge of the covariate distribution.
Extremely large aperture arrays can enable unprecedented spatial multiplexing in beyond 5G systems due to their extremely narrow beamfocusing capabilities. However, acquiring the spatial correlation matrix to enable efficient channel estimation is a complex task due to the vast number of antenna dimensions. Recently, a new estimation method called the "reduced-subspace least squares (RS-LS) estimator" has been proposed for densely packed arrays. This method relies solely on the geometry of the array to limit the estimation resources. In this paper, we address a gap in the existing literature by deriving the average spectral efficiency for a certain distribution of user equipments (UEs) and a lower bound on it when using the RS-LS estimator. This bound is determined by the channel gain and the statistics of the normalized spatial correlation matrices of potential UEs but, importantly, does not require knowledge of a specific UE's spatial correlation matrix. We establish that there exists a pilot length that maximizes this expression. Additionally, we derive an approximate expression for the optimal pilot length under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions. Simulation results validate the tightness of the derived lower bound and the effectiveness of using the optimized pilot length.
During the energy transition, the significance of collaborative management among institutions is rising, confronting challenges posed by data privacy concerns. Prevailing research on distributed approaches, as an alternative to centralized management, often lacks numerical convergence guarantees or is limited to single-machine numerical simulation. To address this, we present a distributed approach for solving AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems within a geographically distributed environment. This involves integrating the energy system Co-Simulation (eCoSim) module in the eASiMOV framework with the convergence-guaranteed distributed optimization algorithm, i.e., the Augmented Lagrangian based Alternating Direction Inexact Newton method (ALADIN). Comprehensive evaluations across multiple system scenarios reveal a marginal performance slowdown compared to the centralized approach and the distributed approach executed on single machines -- a justified trade-off for enhanced data privacy. This investigation serves as empirical validation of the successful execution of distributed AC OPF within a geographically distributed environment, highlighting potential directions for future research.
Reliable predictions of critical phenomena, such as weather, wildfires and epidemics are often founded on models described by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). However, simulations that capture the full range of spatio-temporal scales in such PDEs are often prohibitively expensive. Consequently, coarse-grained simulations that employ heuristics and empirical closure terms are frequently utilized as an alternative. We propose a novel and systematic approach for identifying closures in under-resolved PDEs using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). The MARL formulation incorporates inductive bias and exploits locality by deploying a central policy represented efficiently by Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of MARL through numerical solutions of the advection equation and the Burgers' equation. Our results show accurate predictions for in- and out-of-distribution test cases as well as a significant speedup compared to resolving all scales.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
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