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To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

We consider a general linear parabolic problem with extended time boundary conditions (including initial value problems and periodic ones), and approximate it by the implicit Euler scheme in time and the Gradient Discretisation method in space; the latter is in fact a class of methods that includes conforming and nonconforming finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin methods and several others. The main result is an error estimate which holds without supplementary regularity hypothesis on the solution. This result states that the approximation error has the same order as the sum of the interpolation error and the conformity error. The proof of this result relies on an inf-sup inequality in Hilbert spaces which can be used both in the continuous and the discrete frameworks. The error estimate result is illustrated by numerical examples with low regularity of the solution.

In this paper we develop a numerical method for efficiently approximating solutions of certain Zakai equations in high dimensions. The key idea is to transform a given Zakai SPDE into a PDE with random coefficients. We show that under suitable regularity assumptions on the coefficients of the Zakai equation, the corresponding random PDE admits a solution random field which, for almost all realizations of the random coefficients, can be written as a classical solution of a linear parabolic PDE. This makes it possible to apply the Feynman--Kac formula to obtain an efficient Monte Carlo scheme for computing approximate solutions of Zakai equations. The approach achieves good results in up to 25 dimensions with fast run times.

The paper analyses properties of a large class of "path-based" Data Envelopment Analysis models through a unifying general scheme. The scheme includes the well-known oriented radial models, the hyperbolic distance function model, the directional distance function models, and even permits their generalisations. The modelling is not constrained to non-negative data and is flexible enough to accommodate variants of standard models over arbitrary data. Mathematical tools developed in the paper allow systematic analysis of the models from the point of view of ten desirable properties. It is shown that some of the properties are satisfied (resp., fail) for all models in the general scheme, while others have a more nuanced behaviour and must be assessed individually in each model. Our results can help researchers and practitioners navigate among the different models and apply the models to mixed data.

A standard approach to solve ordinary differential equations, when they describe dynamical systems, is to adopt a Runge-Kutta or related scheme. Such schemes, however, are not applicable to the large class of equations which do not constitute dynamical systems. In several physical systems, we encounter integro-differential equations with memory terms where the time derivative of a state variable at a given time depends on all past states of the system. Secondly, there are equations whose solutions do not have well-defined Taylor series expansion. The Maxey-Riley-Gatignol equation, which describes the dynamics of an inertial particle in nonuniform and unsteady flow, displays both challenges. We use it as a test bed to address the questions we raise, but our method may be applied to all equations of this class. We show that the Maxey-Riley-Gatignol equation can be embedded into an extended Markovian system which is constructed by introducing a new dynamical co-evolving state variable that encodes memory of past states. We develop a Runge-Kutta algorithm for the resultant Markovian system. The form of the kernels involved in deriving the Runge-Kutta scheme necessitates the use of an expansion in powers of $t^{1/2}$. Our approach naturally inherits the benefits of standard time-integrators, namely a constant memory storage cost, a linear growth of operational effort with simulation time, and the ability to restart a simulation with the final state as the new initial condition.

The forecasting and computation of the stability of chaotic systems from partial observations are tasks for which traditional equation-based methods may not be suitable. In this computational paper, we propose data-driven methods to (i) infer the dynamics of unobserved (hidden) chaotic variables (full-state reconstruction); (ii) time forecast the evolution of the full state; and (iii) infer the stability properties of the full state. The tasks are performed with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are trained with observations (data) limited to only part of the state: (i) the low-to-high resolution LSTM (LH-LSTM), which takes partial observations as training input, and requires access to the full system state when computing the loss; and (ii) the physics-informed LSTM (PI-LSTM), which is designed to combine partial observations with the integral formulation of the dynamical system's evolution equations. First, we derive the Jacobian of the LSTMs. Second, we analyse a chaotic partial differential equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS), and the Lorenz-96 system. We show that the proposed networks can forecast the hidden variables, both time-accurately and statistically. The Lyapunov exponents and covariant Lyapunov vectors, which characterize the stability of the chaotic attractors, are correctly inferred from partial observations. Third, the PI-LSTM outperforms the LH-LSTM by successfully reconstructing the hidden chaotic dynamics when the input dimension is smaller or similar to the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. This work opens new opportunities for reconstructing the full state, inferring hidden variables, and computing the stability of chaotic systems from partial data.

Quantization summarizes continuous distributions by calculating a discrete approximation. Among the widely adopted methods for data quantization is Lloyd's algorithm, which partitions the space into Vorono\"i cells, that can be seen as clusters, and constructs a discrete distribution based on their centroids and probabilistic masses. Lloyd's algorithm estimates the optimal centroids in a minimal expected distance sense, but this approach poses significant challenges in scenarios where data evaluation is costly, and relates to rare events. Then, the single cluster associated to no event takes the majority of the probability mass. In this context, a metamodel is required and adapted sampling methods are necessary to increase the precision of the computations on the rare clusters.

This paper develops power series expansions of a general class of moment functions, including transition densities and option prices, of continuous-time Markov processes, including jump--diffusions. The proposed expansions extend the ones in Kristensen and Mele (2011) to cover general Markov processes. We demonstrate that the class of expansions nests the transition density and option price expansions developed in Yang, Chen, and Wan (2019) and Wan and Yang (2021) as special cases, thereby connecting seemingly different ideas in a unified framework. We show how the general expansion can be implemented for fully general jump--diffusion models. We provide a new theory for the validity of the expansions which shows that series expansions are not guaranteed to converge as more terms are added in general. Thus, these methods should be used with caution. At the same time, the numerical studies in this paper demonstrate good performance of the proposed implementation in practice when a small number of terms are included.

We analyze the dynamics of streaming stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in the high-dimensional limit when applied to generalized linear models and multi-index models (e.g. logistic regression, phase retrieval) with general data-covariance. In particular, we demonstrate a deterministic equivalent of SGD in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations that describes a wide class of statistics, such as the risk and other measures of sub-optimality. This equivalence holds with overwhelming probability when the model parameter count grows proportionally to the number of data. This framework allows us to obtain learning rate thresholds for stability of SGD as well as convergence guarantees. In addition to the deterministic equivalent, we introduce an SDE with a simplified diffusion coefficient (homogenized SGD) which allows us to analyze the dynamics of general statistics of SGD iterates. Finally, we illustrate this theory on some standard examples and show numerical simulations which give an excellent match to the theory.

Long-span bridges are subjected to a multitude of dynamic excitations during their lifespan. To account for their effects on the structural system, several load models are used during design to simulate the conditions the structure is likely to experience. These models are based on different simplifying assumptions and are generally guided by parameters that are stochastically identified from measurement data, making their outputs inherently uncertain. This paper presents a probabilistic physics-informed machine-learning framework based on Gaussian process regression for reconstructing dynamic forces based on measured deflections, velocities, or accelerations. The model can work with incomplete and contaminated data and offers a natural regularization approach to account for noise in the measurement system. An application of the developed framework is given by an aerodynamic analysis of the Great Belt East Bridge. The aerodynamic response is calculated numerically based on the quasi-steady model, and the underlying forces are reconstructed using sparse and noisy measurements. Results indicate a good agreement between the applied and the predicted dynamic load and can be extended to calculate global responses and the resulting internal forces. Uses of the developed framework include validation of design models and assumptions, as well as prognosis of responses to assist in damage detection and structural health monitoring.