In this paper, new results in random matrix theory are derived which allow us to construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio when the shrinkage target is a random object. More specifically, the shrinkage target is determined as the holding portfolio estimated from previous data. The theoretical findings are applied to develop theory for dynamic estimation of the GMV portfolio, where the new estimator of its weights is shrunk to the holding portfolio at each time of reconstruction. Both cases with and without overlapping samples are considered in the paper. The non-overlapping samples corresponds to the case when different data of the asset returns are used to construct the traditional estimator of the GMV portfolio weights and to determine the target portfolio, while the overlapping case allows intersections between the samples. The theoretical results are derived under weak assumptions imposed on the data-generating process. No specific distribution is assumed for the asset returns except from the assumption of finite $4+\varepsilon$, $\varepsilon>0$, moments. Also, the population covariance matrix with unbounded spectrum can be considered. The performance of new trading strategies is investigated via an extensive simulation. Finally, the theoretical findings are implemented in an empirical illustration based on the returns on stocks included in the S\&P 500 index.
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We consider a class of statistical estimation problems in which we are given a random data matrix ${\boldsymbol X}\in {\mathbb R}^{n\times d}$ (and possibly some labels ${\boldsymbol y}\in{\mathbb R}^n$) and would like to estimate a coefficient vector ${\boldsymbol \theta}\in{\mathbb R}^d$ (or possibly a constant number of such vectors). Special cases include low-rank matrix estimation and regularized estimation in generalized linear models (e.g., sparse regression). First order methods proceed by iteratively multiplying current estimates by ${\boldsymbol X}$ or its transpose. Examples include gradient descent or its accelerated variants. Celentano, Montanari, Wu proved that for any constant number of iterations (matrix vector multiplications), the optimal first order algorithm is a specific approximate message passing algorithm (known as `Bayes AMP'). The error of this estimator can be characterized in the high-dimensional asymptotics $n,d\to\infty$, $n/d\to\delta$, and provides a lower bound to the estimation error of any first order algorithm. Here we present a simpler proof of the same result, and generalize it to broader classes of data distributions and of first order algorithms, including algorithms with non-separable nonlinearities. Most importantly, the new proof technique does not require to construct an equivalent tree-structured estimation problem, and is therefore susceptible of a broader range of applications.
Moment methods are an important means of density estimation, but they are generally strongly dependent on the choice of feasible functions, which severely affects the performance. We propose a non-classical parameterization for density estimation using the sample moments, which does not require the choice of such functions. The parameterization is induced by the Kullback-Leibler distance, and the solution of it, which is proved to exist and be unique subject to simple prior that does not depend on data, can be obtained by convex optimization. Simulation results show the performance of the proposed estimator in estimating multi-modal densities which are mixtures of different types of functions.
The widespread availability of high-dimensional biological data has made the simultaneous screening of many biological characteristics a central problem in computational biology and allied sciences. While the dimensionality of such datasets continues to grow, so too does the complexity of biomarker identification from exposure patterns in health studies measuring baseline confounders; moreover, doing so while avoiding model misspecification remains an issue only partially addressed. Efficient estimators capable of incorporating flexible, data adaptive regression techniques in estimating relevant components of the data-generating distribution provide an avenue for avoiding model misspecification; however, in the context of high-dimensional problems that require the simultaneous estimation of numerous parameters, standard variance estimators have proven unstable, resulting in unreliable Type-I error control even under standard multiple testing corrections. We present a general approach for applying empirical Bayes shrinkage to variance estimators of a family of efficient, asymptotically linear estimators of population intervention causal effects. Our generalization of shrinkage-based variance estimators increases inferential stability in high-dimensional settings, facilitating the application of these estimators for deriving nonparametric variable importance measures in high-dimensional biological datasets with modest sample sizes. The result is a data adaptive approach for robustly uncovering stable causal associations in high-dimensional data in studies with limited samples. Our generalized variance estimator is evaluated against alternative variance estimators in numerical experiments. Identification of biomarkers with the proposed methodology is demonstrated in an analysis of high-dimensional DNA methylation data from an observational study on the epigenetic effects of tobacco smoking.
We study the dynamics of a neural network in function space when optimizing the mean squared error via gradient flow. We show that in the underparameterized regime the network learns eigenfunctions of an integral operator $T_{K^\infty}$ determined by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) at rates corresponding to their eigenvalues. For example, for uniformly distributed data on the sphere $S^{d - 1}$ and rotation invariant weight distributions, the eigenfunctions of $T_{K^\infty}$ are the spherical harmonics. Our results can be understood as describing a spectral bias in the underparameterized regime. The proofs use the concept of "Damped Deviations", where deviations of the NTK matter less for eigendirections with large eigenvalues due to the occurence of a damping factor. Aside from the underparameterized regime, the damped deviations point-of-view can be used to track the dynamics of the empirical risk in the overparameterized setting, allowing us to extend certain results in the literature. We conclude that damped deviations offers a simple and unifying perspective of the dynamics when optimizing the squared error.
The absolute-moment method is widespread for estimating the Hurst exponent of a fractional Brownian motion $X$. But this method is biased when applied to a stationary version of $X$, in particular an inverse Lamperti transform of $X$, with a linear time contraction of parameter $\theta$. We present an adaptation of the absolute-moment method to this framework and we compare it to the maximum likelihood method, with simulations and an application to a financial time series. While it appears that the maximum-likelihood method is more accurate than the adapted absolute-moment estimation, this last method is not uninteresting for two reasons: it makes it possible to confirm visually that the model is well specified and it is computationally more performing.
The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As non-parametric model, it offers a very flexible way of modeling time-varying covariate effects. It is most commonly estimated by ordinary least squares. In this paper we consider the case where covariates are bounded, and derive the maximum likelihood estimator under the constraint that the hazard is non-negative for all covariate values in their domain. We describe an efficient algorithm to find the maximum likelihood estimator. The method is contrasted with the ordinary least squares approach in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated on a realistic data set.
In the $(1+\varepsilon,r)$-approximate near-neighbor problem for curves (ANNC) under some distance measure $\delta$, the goal is to construct a data structure for a given set $\mathcal{C}$ of curves that supports approximate near-neighbor queries: Given a query curve $Q$, if there exists a curve $C\in\mathcal{C}$ such that $\delta(Q,C)\le r$, then return a curve $C'\in\mathcal{C}$ with $\delta(Q,C')\le(1+\varepsilon)r$. There exists an efficient reduction from the $(1+\varepsilon)$-approximate nearest-neighbor problem to ANNC, where in the former problem the answer to a query is a curve $C\in\mathcal{C}$ with $\delta(Q,C)\le(1+\varepsilon)\cdot\delta(Q,C^*)$, where $C^*$ is the curve of $\mathcal{C}$ closest to $Q$. Given a set $\mathcal{C}$ of $n$ curves, each consisting of $m$ points in $d$ dimensions, we construct a data structure for ANNC that uses $n\cdot O(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{md}$ storage space and has $O(md)$ query time (for a query curve of length $m$), where the similarity between two curves is their discrete Fr\'echet or dynamic time warping distance. Our method is simple to implement, deterministic, and results in an exponential improvement in both query time and storage space compared to all previous bounds. Further, we also consider the asymmetric version of ANNC, where the length of the query curves is $k \ll m$, and obtain essentially the same storage and query bounds as above, except that $m$ is replaced by $k$. Finally, we apply our method to a version of approximate range counting for curves and achieve similar bounds.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
While Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have empirically produced impressive results on learning complex real-world distributions, recent work has shown that they suffer from lack of diversity or mode collapse. The theoretical work of Arora et al.~\cite{AroraGeLiMaZh17} suggests a dilemma about GANs' statistical properties: powerful discriminators cause overfitting, whereas weak discriminators cannot detect mode collapse. In contrast, we show in this paper that GANs can in principle learn distributions in Wasserstein distance (or KL-divergence in many cases) with polynomial sample complexity, if the discriminator class has strong distinguishing power against the particular generator class (instead of against all possible generators). For various generator classes such as mixture of Gaussians, exponential families, and invertible neural networks generators, we design corresponding discriminators (which are often neural nets of specific architectures) such that the Integral Probability Metric (IPM) induced by the discriminators can provably approximate the Wasserstein distance and/or KL-divergence. This implies that if the training is successful, then the learned distribution is close to the true distribution in Wasserstein distance or KL divergence, and thus cannot drop modes. Our preliminary experiments show that on synthetic datasets the test IPM is well correlated with KL divergence, indicating that the lack of diversity may be caused by the sub-optimality in optimization instead of statistical inefficiency.
We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.
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