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Given a partial differential equation (PDE), goal-oriented error estimation allows us to understand how errors in a diagnostic quantity of interest (QoI), or goal, occur and accumulate in a numerical approximation, for example using the finite element method. By decomposing the error estimates into contributions from individual elements, it is possible to formulate adaptation methods, which modify the mesh with the objective of minimising the resulting QoI error. However, the standard error estimate formulation involves the true adjoint solution, which is unknown in practice. As such, it is common practice to approximate it with an 'enriched' approximation (e.g. in a higher order space or on a refined mesh). Doing so generally results in a significant increase in computational cost, which can be a bottleneck compromising the competitiveness of (goal-oriented) adaptive simulations. The central idea of this paper is to develop a "data-driven" goal-oriented mesh adaptation approach through the selective replacement of the expensive error estimation step with an appropriately configured and trained neural network. In doing so, the error estimator may be obtained without even constructing the enriched spaces. An element-by-element construction is employed here, whereby local values of various parameters related to the mesh geometry and underlying problem physics are taken as inputs, and the corresponding contribution to the error estimator is taken as output. We demonstrate that this approach is able to obtain the same accuracy with a reduced computational cost, for adaptive mesh test cases related to flow around tidal turbines, which interact via their downstream wakes, and where the overall power output of the farm is taken as the QoI. Moreover, we demonstrate that the element-by-element approach implies reasonably low training costs.

We study the problem of learning nonparametric distributions in a finite mixture, and establish tight bounds on the sample complexity for learning the component distributions in such models. Namely, we are given i.i.d. samples from a pdf $f$ where $$ f=\sum_{i=1}^k w_i f_i, \quad\sum_{i=1}^k w_i=1, \quad w_i>0 $$ and we are interested in learning each component $f_i$. Without any assumptions on $f_i$, this problem is ill-posed. In order to identify the components $f_i$, we assume that each $f_i$ can be written as a convolution of a Gaussian and a compactly supported density $\nu_i$ with $\text{supp}(\nu_i)\cap \text{supp}(\nu_j)=\emptyset$. Our main result shows that $(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{\Omega(\log\log \frac{1}{\varepsilon})}$ samples are required for estimating each $f_i$. Unlike parametric mixtures, the difficulty does not arise from the order $k$ or small weights $w_i$, and unlike nonparametric density estimation it does not arise from the curse of dimensionality, irregularity, or inhomogeneity. The proof relies on a fast rate for approximation with Gaussians, which may be of independent interest. To show this is tight, we also propose an algorithm that uses $(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{O(\log\log \frac{1}{\varepsilon})}$ samples to estimate each $f_i$. Unlike existing approaches to learning latent variable models based on moment-matching and tensor methods, our proof instead involves a delicate analysis of an ill-conditioned linear system via orthogonal functions. Combining these bounds, we conclude that the optimal sample complexity of this problem properly lies in between polynomial and exponential, which is not common in learning theory.

The ergodic decomposition theorem is a cornerstone result of dynamical systems and ergodic theory. It states that every invariant measure on a dynamical system is a mixture of ergodic ones. Here we formulate and prove the theorem in terms of string diagrams, using the formalism of Markov categories. We recover the usual measure-theoretic statement by instantiating our result in the category of stochastic kernels. Along the way we give a conceptual treatment of several concepts in the theory of deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems. In particular, - ergodic measures appear very naturally as particular cones of deterministic morphisms (in the sense of Markov categories); - the invariant $\sigma$-algebra of a dynamical system can be seen as a colimit in the category of Markov kernels. In line with other uses of category theory, once the necessary structures are in place, our proof of the main theorem is much simpler than traditional approaches. In particular, it does not use any quantitative limiting arguments, and it does not rely on the cardinality of the group or monoid indexing the dynamics. We hope that this result paves the way for further applications of category theory to dynamical systems, ergodic theory, and information theory.

When learning disconnected distributions, Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are known to face model misspecification. Indeed, a continuous mapping from a unimodal latent distribution to a disconnected one is impossible, so GANs necessarily generate samples outside of the support of the target distribution. This raises a fundamental question: what is the latent space partition that minimizes the measure of these areas? Building on a recent result of geometric measure theory, we prove that an optimal GANs must structure its latent space as a 'simplicial cluster' - a Voronoi partition where cells are convex cones - when the dimension of the latent space is larger than the number of modes. In this configuration, each Voronoi cell maps to a distinct mode of the data. We derive both an upper and a lower bound on the optimal precision of GANs learning disconnected manifolds. Interestingly, these two bounds have the same order of decrease: $\sqrt{\log m}$, $m$ being the number of modes. Finally, we perform several experiments to exhibit the geometry of the latent space and experimentally show that GANs have a geometry with similar properties to the theoretical one.

Consider the sum $Y=B+B(H)$ of a Brownian motion $B$ and an independent fractional Brownian motion $B(H)$ with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Surprisingly, even though $B(H)$ is not a semimartingale, Cheridito proved in [Bernoulli 7 (2001) 913--934] that $Y$ is a semimartingale if $H>3/4$. Moreover, $Y$ is locally equivalent to $B$ in this case, so $H$ cannot be consistently estimated from local observations of $Y$. This paper pivots on a second surprise in this model: if $B$ and $B(H)$ become correlated, then $Y$ will never be a semimartingale, and $H$ can be identified, regardless of its value. This and other results will follow from a detailed statistical analysis of a more general class of processes called mixed semimartingales, which are semiparametric extensions of $Y$ with stochastic volatility in both the martingale and the fractional component. In particular, we derive consistent estimators and feasible central limit theorems for all parameters and processes that can be identified from high-frequency observations. We further show that our estimators achieve optimal rates in a minimax sense. The estimation of mixed semimartingales with correlation is motivated by applications to high-frequency financial data contaminated by rough noise.

It was observed in \citet{gupta2009differentially} that the Set Cover problem has strong impossibility results under differential privacy. In our work, we observe that these hardness results dissolve when we turn to the Partial Set Cover problem, where we only need to cover a $\rho$-fraction of the elements in the universe, for some $\rho\in(0,1)$. We show that this relaxation enables us to avoid the impossibility results: under loose conditions on the input set system, we give differentially private algorithms which output an explicit set cover with non-trivial approximation guarantees. In particular, this is the first differentially private algorithm which outputs an explicit set cover. Using our algorithm for Partial Set Cover as a subroutine, we give a differentially private (bicriteria) approximation algorithm for a facility location problem which generalizes $k$-center/$k$-supplier with outliers. Like with the Set Cover problem, no algorithm has been able to give non-trivial guarantees for $k$-center/$k$-supplier-type facility location problems due to the high sensitivity and impossibility results. Our algorithm shows that relaxing the covering requirement to serving only a $\rho$-fraction of the population, for $\rho\in(0,1)$, enables us to circumvent the inherent hardness. Overall, our work is an important step in tackling and understanding impossibility results in private combinatorial optimization.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox exposes a rift between Bayesian and frequentist hypothesis testing that strikes at the heart of statistical inference. Contrary to what most current literature suggests, the paradox was central to the Bayesian testing methodology developed by Sir Harold Jeffreys in the late 1930s. Jeffreys showed that the evidence against a point-null hypothesis $\mathcal{H}_0$ scales with $\sqrt{n}$ and repeatedly argued that it would therefore be mistaken to set a threshold for rejecting $\mathcal{H}_0$ at a constant multiple of the standard error. Here we summarize Jeffreys's early work on the paradox and clarify his reasons for including the $\sqrt{n}$ term. The prior distribution is seen to play a crucial role; by implicitly correcting for selection, small parameter values are identified as relatively surprising under $\mathcal{H}_1$. We highlight the general nature of the paradox by presenting both a fully frequentist and a fully Bayesian version. We also demonstrate that the paradox does not depend on assigning prior mass to a point hypothesis, as is commonly believed.

We discuss difficulties of evaluating partisan gerrymandering in the congressional districts in Utah and the failure of many common metrics in Utah. We explain why the Republican vote share in the least-Republican district (LRVS) is a good indicator of the advantage or disadvantage each party has in the Utah congressional districts. Although the LRVS only makes sense in settings with at most one competitive district, in that setting it directly captures the extent to which a given redistricting plan gives advantage or disadvantage to the Republican and Democratic parties. We use the LRVS to evaluate the most common measures of partisan gerrymandering in the context of Utah's 2011 congressional districts. We do this by generating large ensembles of alternative redistricting plans using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We also discuss the implications of this new metric and our results on the question of whether the 2011 Utah congressional plan was gerrymandered.

Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.