Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that allows to sample high dimensional probability measures. It relies on the integration of the Hamiltonian dynamics to propose a move which is then accepted or rejected thanks to a Metropolis procedure. Unbiased sampling is guaranteed by the preservation by the numerical integrators of two key properties of the Hamiltonian dynamics: volume-preservation and reversibility up to momentum reversal. For separable Hamiltonian functions, some standard explicit numerical schemes, such as the St\"ormer-Verlet integrator, satisfy these properties. However, for numerical or physical reasons, one may consider a Hamiltonian function which is nonseparable, in which case the standard numerical schemes which preserve the volume and satisfy reversibility up to momentum reversal are implicit. When implemented in practice, such implicit schemes may admit many solutions or none, especially when the timestep is too large. We show here how to enforce the numerical reversibility, and thus unbiasedness, of HMC schemes in this context by introducing a reversibility check. In addition, for some specific forms of the Hamiltonian function, we discuss the consistency of these HMC schemes with some Langevin dynamics, and show in particular that our algorithm yields an efficient discretization of the metropolized overdamped Langevin dynamics with position-dependent diffusion coefficients. Numerical results illustrate the relevance of the reversibility check on simple problems.
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Principal variables analysis (PVA) is a technique for selecting a subset of variables that capture as much of the information in a dataset as possible. Existing approaches for PVA are based on the Pearson correlation matrix, which is not well-suited to describing the relationships between non-Gaussian variables. We propose a generalized approach to PVA enabling the use of different types of correlation, and we explore using Spearman, Gaussian copula, and polychoric correlations as alternatives to Pearson correlation when performing PVA. We compare performance in simulation studies varying the form of the true multivariate distribution over a wide range of possibilities. Our results show that on continuous non-Gaussian data, using generalized PVA with Gaussian copula or Spearman correlations provides a major improvement in performance compared to Pearson. Meanwhile, on ordinal data, generalized PVA with polychoric correlations outperforms the rest by a wide margin. We apply generalized PVA to a dataset of 102 clinical variables measured on individuals with X-linked dystonia parkinsonism (XDP), a rare neurodegenerative disorder, and we find that using different types of correlation yields substantively different sets of principal variables.
Finding a minimum is an essential part of mathematical models, and it plays an important role in some optimization problems. Durr and Hoyer proposed a quantum searching algorithm (DHA), with a certain probability of success, to achieve quadratic speed than classical ones. In this paper, we propose an optimized quantum minimum searching algorithm with sure-success probability, which utilizes Grover-Long searching to implement the optimal exact searching, and the dynamic strategy to reduce the iterations of our algorithm. Besides, we optimize the oracle circuit to reduce the number of gates by the simplified rules. The performance evaluation including the theoretical success rate and computational complexity shows that our algorithm has higher accuracy and efficiency than DHA algorithm. Finally, a simulation experiment based on Cirq is performed to verify its feasibility.
We study the query complexity of slices of Boolean functions. Among other results we show that there exists a Boolean function for which we need to query all but 7 input bits to compute its value, even if we know beforehand that the number of 0's and 1's in the input are the same, i.e. when our input is from the middle slice. This answers a question of Byramji. Our proof is non-constructive, but we also propose a concrete candidate function that might have the above property. Our results are related to certain natural discrepancy type questions that -- somewhat surprisingly -- have not been studied before.
We present here a new splitting method to solve Lyapunov equations of the type $AP + PA^T=-BB^T$ in a Kronecker product form. Although that resulting matrix is of order $n^2$, each iteration of the method demands only two operations with the matrix $A$: a multiplication of the form $(A-\sigma I) \hat{B}$ and a inversion of the form $(A-\sigma I)^{-1}\hat{B}$. We see that for some choice of a parameter the iteration matrix is such that all their eigenvalues are in absolute value less than 1, which means that it should converge without depending on the starting vector. Nevertheless we present a theorem that enables us how to get a good starting vector for the method.
We investigate the combinatorics of max-pooling layers, which are functions that downsample input arrays by taking the maximum over shifted windows of input coordinates, and which are commonly used in convolutional neural networks. We obtain results on the number of linearity regions of these functions by equivalently counting the number of vertices of certain Minkowski sums of simplices. We characterize the faces of such polytopes and obtain generating functions and closed formulas for the number of vertices and facets in a 1D max-pooling layer depending on the size of the pooling windows and stride, and for the number of vertices in a special case of 2D max-pooling.
In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We propose an efficient sampling algorithm via the generalized ratio-of-uniforms method to draw samples for making posterior inference. We carry out simulation studies to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed Bayesian approach. Finally, a real-data application is provided for illustrative purposes.
Principal variables analysis (PVA) is a technique for selecting a subset of variables that capture as much of the information in a dataset as possible. Existing approaches for PVA are based on the Pearson correlation matrix, which is not well-suited to describing the relationships between non-Gaussian variables. We propose a generalized approach to PVA enabling the use of different types of correlation, and we explore using Spearman, Gaussian copula, and polychoric correlations as alternatives to Pearson correlation when performing PVA. We compare performance in simulation studies varying the form of the true multivariate distribution over a wide range of possibilities. Our results show that on continuous non-Gaussian data, using generalized PVA with Gaussian copula or Spearman correlations provides a major improvement in performance compared to Pearson. Meanwhile, on ordinal data, generalized PVA with polychoric correlations outperforms the rest by a wide margin. We apply generalized PVA to a dataset of 102 clinical variables measured on individuals with X-linked dystonia parkinsonism (XDP), a rare neurodegenerative disorder, and we find that using different types of correlation yields substantively different sets of principal variables.
Mediation analysis is widely used for investigating direct and indirect causal pathways through which an effect arises. However, many mediation analysis studies are challenged by missingness in the mediator and outcome. In general, when the mediator and outcome are missing not at random, the direct and indirect effects are not identifiable without further assumptions. In this work, we study the identifiability of the direct and indirect effects under some interpretable mechanisms that allow for missing not at random in the mediator and outcome. We evaluate the performance of statistical inference under those mechanisms through simulation studies and illustrate the proposed methods via the National Job Corps Study.
The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
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