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Accurately predicting the onset of specific activities within defined timeframes holds significant importance in several applied contexts. In particular, accurate prediction of the number of future users that will be exposed to an intervention is an important piece of information for experimenters running online experiments (A/B tests). In this work, we propose a novel approach to predict the number of users that will be active in a given time period, as well as the temporal trajectory needed to attain a desired user participation threshold. We model user activity using a Bayesian nonparametric approach which allows us to capture the underlying heterogeneity in user engagement. We derive closed-form expressions for the number of new users expected in a given period, and a simple Monte Carlo algorithm targeting the posterior distribution of the number of days needed to attain a desired number of users; the latter is important for experimental planning. We illustrate the performance of our approach via several experiments on synthetic and real world data, in which we show that our novel method outperforms existing competitors.

Polar codes are the first class of structured channel codes that achieve the symmetric capacity of binary channels with efficient encoding and decoding. In 2019, Arikan proposed a new polar coding scheme referred to as polarization-adjusted convolutional (PAC)} codes. In contrast to polar codes, PAC codes precode the information word using a convolutional code prior to polar encoding. This results in material coding gain over polar code under Fano sequential decoding as well as successive cancellation list (SCL) decoding. Given the advantages of SCL decoding over Fano decoding in certain scenarios such as low-SNR regime or where a constraint on the worst case decoding latency exists, in this paper, we focus on SCL decoding and present a simplified SCL (SSCL) decoding algorithm for PAC codes. SSCL decoding of PAC codes reduces the decoding latency by identifying special nodes in the decoding tree and processing them at the intermediate stages of the graph. Our simulation results show that the performance of PAC codes under SSCL decoding is almost similar to the SCL decoding while having lower decoding latency.

We consider the ubiquitous linear inverse problems with additive Gaussian noise and propose an unsupervised sampling approach called diffusion model based posterior sampling (DMPS) to reconstruct the unknown signal from noisy linear measurements. Specifically, using one diffusion model (DM) as an implicit prior, the fundamental difficulty in performing posterior sampling is that the noise-perturbed likelihood score, i.e., gradient of an annealed likelihood function, is intractable. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a simple yet effective closed-form approximation using an uninformative prior assumption. Extensive experiments are conducted on a variety of noisy linear inverse problems such as noisy super-resolution, denoising, deblurring, and colorization. In all tasks, the proposed DMPS demonstrates highly competitive or even better performances on various tasks while being 3 times faster than the state-of-the-art competitor diffusion posterior sampling (DPS).

Understanding the dependence structure between response variables is an important component in the analysis of correlated multivariate data. This article focuses on modeling dependence structures in multivariate binary data, motivated by a study aiming to understand how patterns in different U.S. senators' votes are determined by similarities (or lack thereof) in their attributes, e.g., political parties and social network profiles. To address such a research question, we propose a new Ising similarity regression model which regresses pairwise interaction coefficients in the Ising model against a set of similarity measures available/constructed from covariates. Model selection approaches are further developed through regularizing the pseudo-likelihood function with an adaptive lasso penalty to enable the selection of relevant similarity measures. We establish estimation and selection consistency of the proposed estimator under a general setting where the number of similarity measures and responses tend to infinity. Simulation study demonstrates the strong finite sample performance of the proposed estimator in terms of parameter estimation and similarity selection. Applying the Ising similarity regression model to a dataset of roll call voting records of 100 U.S. senators, we are able to quantify how similarities in senators' parties, businessman occupations and social network profiles drive their voting associations.

Modern neural networks are over-parameterized and thus rely on strong regularization such as data augmentation and weight decay to reduce overfitting and improve generalization. The dominant form of data augmentation applies invariant transforms, where the learning target of a sample is invariant to the transform applied to that sample. We draw inspiration from human visual classification studies and propose generalizing augmentation with invariant transforms to soft augmentation where the learning target softens non-linearly as a function of the degree of the transform applied to the sample: e.g., more aggressive image crop augmentations produce less confident learning targets. We demonstrate that soft targets allow for more aggressive data augmentation, offer more robust performance boosts, work with other augmentation policies, and interestingly, produce better calibrated models (since they are trained to be less confident on aggressively cropped/occluded examples). Combined with existing aggressive augmentation strategies, soft target 1) doubles the top-1 accuracy boost across Cifar-10, Cifar-100, ImageNet-1K, and ImageNet-V2, 2) improves model occlusion performance by up to $4\times$, and 3) halves the expected calibration error (ECE). Finally, we show that soft augmentation generalizes to self-supervised classification tasks. Code available at //github.com/youngleox/soft_augmentation

Contrastive learning models have achieved great success in unsupervised visual representation learning, which maximize the similarities between feature representations of different views of the same image, while minimize the similarities between feature representations of views of different images. In text summarization, the output summary is a shorter form of the input document and they have similar meanings. In this paper, we propose a contrastive learning model for supervised abstractive text summarization, where we view a document, its gold summary and its model generated summaries as different views of the same mean representation and maximize the similarities between them during training. We improve over a strong sequence-to-sequence text generation model (i.e., BART) on three different summarization datasets. Human evaluation also shows that our model achieves better faithfulness ratings compared to its counterpart without contrastive objectives.

Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.