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We consider a network of agents. Associated with each agent are her covariate and outcome. Agents influence each other's outcomes according to a certain connection/influence structure. A subset of the agents participate on a platform, and hence, are observable to it. The rest are not observable to the platform and are called the latent agents. The platform does not know the influence structure of the observable or the latent parts of the network. It only observes the data on past covariates and decisions of the observable agents. Observable agents influence each other both directly and indirectly through the influence they exert on the latent agents. We investigate how the platform can estimate the dependence of the observable agents' outcomes on their covariates, taking the latent agents into account. First, we show that this relationship can be succinctly captured by a matrix and provide an algorithm for estimating it under a suitable approximate sparsity condition using historical data of covariates and outcomes for the observable agents. We also obtain convergence rates for the proposed estimator despite the high dimensionality that allows more agents than observations. Second, we show that the approximate sparsity condition holds under the standard conditions used in the literature. Hence, our results apply to a large class of networks. Finally, we apply our results to two practical settings: targeted advertising and promotional pricing. We show that by using the available historical data with our estimator, it is possible to obtain asymptotically optimal advertising/pricing decisions, despite the presence of latent agents.

Reference priors are theoretically attractive for the analysis of geostatistical data since they enable automatic Bayesian analysis and have desirable Bayesian and frequentist properties. But their use is hindered by computational hurdles that make their application in practice challenging. In this work, we derive a new class of default priors that approximate reference priors for the parameters of some Gaussian random fields. It is based on an approximation to the integrated likelihood of the covariance parameters derived from the spectral approximation of stationary random fields. This prior depends on the structure of the mean function and the spectral density of the model evaluated at a set of spectral points associated with an auxiliary regular grid. In addition to preserving the desirable Bayesian and frequentist properties, these approximate reference priors are more stable, and their computations are much less onerous than those of exact reference priors. Unlike exact reference priors, the marginal approximate reference prior of correlation parameter is always proper, regardless of the mean function or the smoothness of the correlation function. This property has important consequences for covariance model selection. An illustration comparing default Bayesian analyses is provided with a data set of lead pollution in Galicia, Spain.

Statistical divergences (SDs), which quantify the dissimilarity between probability distributions, are a basic constituent of statistical inference and machine learning. A modern method for estimating those divergences relies on parametrizing an empirical variational form by a neural network (NN) and optimizing over parameter space. Such neural estimators are abundantly used in practice, but corresponding performance guarantees are partial and call for further exploration. We establish non-asymptotic absolute error bounds for a neural estimator realized by a shallow NN, focusing on four popular $\mathsf{f}$-divergences -- Kullback-Leibler, chi-squared, squared Hellinger, and total variation. Our analysis relies on non-asymptotic function approximation theorems and tools from empirical process theory to bound the two sources of error involved: function approximation and empirical estimation. The bounds characterize the effective error in terms of NN size and the number of samples, and reveal scaling rates that ensure consistency. For compactly supported distributions, we further show that neural estimators of the first three divergences above with appropriate NN growth-rate are minimax rate-optimal, achieving the parametric convergence rate.

We study the problem of estimating the diagonal of an implicitly given matrix $A$. For such a matrix we have access to an oracle that allows us to evaluate the matrix vector product $Av$. For random variable $v$ drawn from an appropriate distribution, this may be used to return an estimate of the diagonal of the matrix $A$. Whilst results exist for probabilistic guarantees relating to the error of estimates of the trace of $A$, no such results have yet been derived for the diagonal. We analyse the number of queries $s$ required to guarantee that with probability at least $1-\delta$ the estimates of the relative error of the diagonal entries is at most $\varepsilon$. We extend this analysis to the 2-norm of the difference between the estimate and the diagonal of $A$. We prove, discuss and experiment with bounds on the number of queries $s$ required to guarantee a probabilistic bound on the estimates of the diagonal by employing Rademacher and Gaussian random variables. Two sufficient upper bounds on the minimum number of query vectors are proved, extending the work of Avron and Toledo [JACM 58(2)8, 2011], and later work of Roosta-Khorasani and Ascher [FoCM 15, 1187-1212, 2015]. We find that, generally, there is little difference between the two, with convergence going as $O(\log(1/\delta)/\varepsilon^2)$ for individual diagonal elements. However for small $s$, we find that the Rademacher estimator is superior. These results allow us to then extend the ideas of Meyer, Musco, Musco and Woodruff [SOSA, 142-155, 2021], suggesting algorithm Diag++, to speed up the convergence of diagonal estimation from $O(1/\varepsilon^2)$ to $O(1/\varepsilon)$ and make it robust to the spectrum of any positive semi-definite matrix $A$.

We study the optimal sample complexity of learning a Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our main result establishes the minimax optimal sample complexity for learning the structure of a linear Gaussian DAG model with equal variances to be $n\asymp q\log(d/q)$, where $q$ is the maximum number of parents and $d$ is the number of nodes. We further make comparisons with the classical problem of learning (undirected) Gaussian graphical models, showing that under the equal variance assumption, these two problems share the same optimal sample complexity. In other words, at least for Gaussian models with equal error variances, learning a directed graphical model is not more difficult than learning an undirected graphical model. Our results also extend to more general identification assumptions as well as subgaussian errors.

We study the implicit upwind finite volume scheme for numerically approximating the advection-diffusion equation with a vector field in the low regularity DiPerna-Lions setting. That is, we are concerned with advecting velocity fields that are spatially Sobolev regular and data that are merely integrable. We study the implicit upwind finite volume scheme for numerically approximating the advection-diffusion equation with a vector field in the low regularity DiPerna-Lions setting. We prove that on unstructured regular meshes the rate of convergence of approximate solutions generated by the upwind scheme towards the unique solution of the continuous model is at least one. The numerical error is estimated in terms of logarithmic Kantorovich-Rubinstein distances and provides thus a bound on the rate of weak convergence.

We develop a novel procedure for estimating the optimizer of general convex stochastic optimization problems of the form $\min_{x\in\mathcal{X}} \mathbb{E}[F(x,\xi)]$, when the given data is a finite independent sample selected according to $\xi$. The procedure is based on a median-of-means tournament, and is the first procedure that exhibits the optimal statistical performance in heavy tailed situations: we recover the asymptotic rates dictated by the central limit theorem in a non-asymptotic manner once the sample size exceeds some explicitly computable threshold. Additionally, our results apply in the high-dimensional setup, as the threshold sample size exhibits the optimal dependence on the dimension (up to a logarithmic factor). The general setting allows us to recover recent results on multivariate mean estimation and linear regression in heavy-tailed situations and to prove the first sharp, non-asymptotic results for the portfolio optimization problem.

In the $\varepsilon$-Consensus-Halving problem, we are given $n$ probability measures $v_1, \dots, v_n$ on the interval $R = [0,1]$, and the goal is to partition $R$ into two parts $R^+$ and $R^-$ using at most $n$ cuts, so that $|v_i(R^+) - v_i(R^-)| \leq \varepsilon$ for all $i$. This fundamental fair division problem was the first natural problem shown to be complete for the class PPA, and all subsequent PPA-completeness results for other natural problems have been obtained by reducing from it. We show that $\varepsilon$-Consensus-Halving is PPA-complete even when the parameter $\varepsilon$ is a constant. In fact, we prove that this holds for any constant $\varepsilon < 1/5$. As a result, we obtain constant inapproximability results for all known natural PPA-complete problems, including Necklace-Splitting, the Discrete-Ham-Sandwich problem, two variants of the pizza sharing problem, and for finding fair independent sets in cycles and paths.

In this work, we consider the distributed optimization of non-smooth convex functions using a network of computing units. We investigate this problem under two regularity assumptions: (1) the Lipschitz continuity of the global objective function, and (2) the Lipschitz continuity of local individual functions. Under the local regularity assumption, we provide the first optimal first-order decentralized algorithm called multi-step primal-dual (MSPD) and its corresponding optimal convergence rate. A notable aspect of this result is that, for non-smooth functions, while the dominant term of the error is in $O(1/\sqrt{t})$, the structure of the communication network only impacts a second-order term in $O(1/t)$, where $t$ is time. In other words, the error due to limits in communication resources decreases at a fast rate even in the case of non-strongly-convex objective functions. Under the global regularity assumption, we provide a simple yet efficient algorithm called distributed randomized smoothing (DRS) based on a local smoothing of the objective function, and show that DRS is within a $d^{1/4}$ multiplicative factor of the optimal convergence rate, where $d$ is the underlying dimension.

Estimating the head pose of a person is a crucial problem that has a large amount of applications such as aiding in gaze estimation, modeling attention, fitting 3D models to video and performing face alignment. Traditionally head pose is computed by estimating some keypoints from the target face and solving the 2D to 3D correspondence problem with a mean human head model. We argue that this is a fragile method because it relies entirely on landmark detection performance, the extraneous head model and an ad-hoc fitting step. We present an elegant and robust way to determine pose by training a multi-loss convolutional neural network on 300W-LP, a large synthetically expanded dataset, to predict intrinsic Euler angles (yaw, pitch and roll) directly from image intensities through joint binned pose classification and regression. We present empirical tests on common in-the-wild pose benchmark datasets which show state-of-the-art results. Additionally we test our method on a dataset usually used for pose estimation using depth and start to close the gap with state-of-the-art depth pose methods. We open-source our training and testing code as well as release our pre-trained models.