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The evaluation of clustering results is difficult, highly dependent on the evaluated data set and the perspective of the beholder. There are many different clustering quality measures, which try to provide a general measure to validate clustering results. A very popular measure is the Silhouette. We discuss the efficient medoid-based variant of the Silhouette, perform a theoretical analysis of its properties, provide two fast versions for the direct optimization, and discuss the use to choose the optimal number of clusters. We combine ideas from the original Silhouette with the well-known PAM algorithm and its latest improvements FasterPAM. One of the versions guarantees equal results to the original variant and provides a run speedup of $O(k^2)$. In experiments on real data with 30000 samples and $k$=100, we observed a 10464$\times$ speedup compared to the original PAMMEDSIL algorithm. Additionally, we provide a variant to choose the optimal number of clusters directly.

StreamBed is a capacity planning system for stream processing.It predicts, ahead of any production deployment, the resources that a query will require to process an incoming data rate sustainably, and the appropriate configuration of these resources. StreamBed builds a capacity planning model by piloting a series of runs of the target query in a small-scale, controlled testbed. We implement StreamBed for the popular Flink DSP engine. Our evaluation with large-scale queries of the Nexmark benchmark demonstrates that StreamBed can effectively and accurately predict capacity requirements for jobs spanning more than 1,000 cores using a testbed of only 48 cores.

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when the prediction question is explicitly counterfactual. However, estimating and evaluating counterfactual prediction models is challenging because one does not observe the full set of potential outcomes for all individuals. Here, we discuss how to tailor a model to a counterfactual estimand, how to assess the model's performance, and how to perform model and tuning parameter selection. We also provide identifiability results for measures of performance for a potentially misspecified counterfactual prediction model based on training and test data from the same (factual) source population. Last, we illustrate the methods using simulation and apply them to the task of developing a statin-na\"{i}ve risk prediction model for cardiovascular disease.

In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called scenarios, is specified. This possibility distribution induces a necessity measure in scenario set, which in turn describes an ambiguity set of probability distributions in scenario set. The distributionally robust approach is then used to convert the imprecise constraints into deterministic equivalents. Namely, the left-hand side of an imprecise constraint is evaluated by using a risk measure with respect to the worst probability distribution that can occur. In this paper, the Conditional Value at Risk is used as the risk measure, which generalizes the strict robust and expected value approaches, commonly used in literature. A general framework for solving such a class of problems is described. Some cases which can be solved in polynomial time are identified.

Previous researchers conducting Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction tasks have primarily focused on the performance of individual pre-trained models, without exploring the relationship between different pre-trained models as backbones. In this study, we build six models: RoBERTaJIT, CodeBERTJIT, BARTJIT, PLBARTJIT, GPT2JIT, and CodeGPTJIT, each with a distinct pre-trained model as its backbone. We systematically explore the differences and connections between these models. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the models when using Commit code and Commit message as inputs, as well as the relationship between training efficiency and model distribution among these six models. Additionally, we conduct an ablation experiment to explore the sensitivity of each model to inputs. Furthermore, we investigate how the models perform in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Our findings indicate that each model based on different backbones shows improvements, and when the backbone's pre-training model is similar, the training resources that need to be consumed are much more closer. We also observe that Commit code plays a significant role in defect detection, and different pre-trained models demonstrate better defect detection ability with a balanced dataset under few-shot scenarios. These results provide new insights for optimizing JIT defect prediction tasks using pre-trained models and highlight the factors that require more attention when constructing such models. Additionally, CodeGPTJIT and GPT2JIT achieved better performance than DeepJIT and CC2Vec on the two datasets respectively under 2000 training samples. These findings emphasize the effectiveness of transformer-based pre-trained models in JIT defect prediction tasks, especially in scenarios with limited training data.

We show that two procedures for false discovery rate (FDR) control -- the Benjamini-Yekutieli procedure for dependent p-values, and the e-Benjamini-Hochberg procedure for dependent e-values -- can both be made more powerful by a simple randomization involving one independent uniform random variable. As a corollary, the Hommel test under arbitrary dependence is also improved. Importantly, our randomized improvements are never worse than the originals, and they are typically strictly more powerful, with marked improvements in simulations. The same technique also improves essentially every other multiple testing procedure based on e-values.

We study semi-parametric estimation of the population mean when data is observed missing at random (MAR) in the $n < p$ "inconsistency regime", in which neither the outcome model nor the propensity/missingness model can be estimated consistently. Consider a high-dimensional linear-GLM specification in which the number of confounders is proportional to the sample size. In the case $n > p$, past work has developed theory for the classical AIPW estimator in this model and established its variance inflation and asymptotic normality when the outcome model is fit by ordinary least squares. Ordinary least squares is no longer feasible in the case $n < p$ studied here, and we also demonstrate that a number of classical debiasing procedures become inconsistent. This challenge motivates our development and analysis of a novel procedure: we establish that it is consistent for the population mean under proportional asymptotics allowing for $n < p$, and also provide confidence intervals for the linear model coefficients. Providing such guarantees in the inconsistency regime requires a new debiasing approach that combines penalized M-estimates of both the outcome and propensity/missingness models in a non-standard way.

We consider the problem of categorizing and describing the dynamic properties and behaviours of crowds over time. Previous work has tended to focus on a relatively static "typology"-based approach, which does not account for the fact that crowds can change, often quite rapidly. Moreover, the labels attached to crowd behaviours are often subjective and/or value-laden. Here, we present an alternative approach, loosely based on the statechart formalism from computer science. This uses relatively "agnostic" labels, which means that we do not prescribe the behaviour of an individual, but provide a context within which an individual might behave. This naturally describes the time-series evolution of a crowd as "threads" of states, and allows for the dynamic handling of an arbitrary number of "sub-crowds".

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.