The algorithms available for retail forecasting have increased in complexity. Newer methods, such as machine learning, are inherently complex. The more traditional families of forecasting models, such as exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving averages, have expanded to contain multiple possible forms and forecasting profiles. We question complexity in forecasting and the need to consider such large families of models. Our argument is that parsimoniously identifying suitable subsets of models will not decrease forecasting accuracy nor will it reduce the ability to estimate forecast uncertainty. We propose a framework that balances forecasting performance versus computational cost, resulting in the consideration of only a reduced set of models. We empirically demonstrate that a reduced set performs well. Finally, we translate computational benefits to monetary cost savings and environmental impact and discuss the implications of our results in the context of large retailers.
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Distributional reinforcement learning algorithms have attempted to utilize estimated uncertainty for exploration, such as optimism in the face of uncertainty. However, using the estimated variance for optimistic exploration may cause biased data collection and hinder convergence or performance. In this paper, we present a novel distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that selects actions by randomizing risk criterion to avoid one-sided tendency on risk. We provide a perturbed distributional Bellman optimality operator by distorting the risk measure and prove the convergence and optimality of the proposed method with the weaker contraction property. Our theoretical results support that the proposed method does not fall into biased exploration and is guaranteed to converge to an optimal return. Finally, we empirically show that our method outperforms other existing distribution-based algorithms in various environments including Atari 55 games.
Adaptive optimizers, such as Adam, have achieved remarkable success in deep learning. A key component of these optimizers is the so-called preconditioning matrix, providing enhanced gradient information and regulating the step size of each gradient direction. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to designing the preconditioning matrix by utilizing the gradient difference between two successive steps as the diagonal elements. These diagonal elements are closely related to the Hessian and can be perceived as an approximation of the inner product between the Hessian row vectors and difference of the adjacent parameter vectors. Additionally, we introduce an auto-switching function that enables the preconditioning matrix to switch dynamically between Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) and the adaptive optimizer. Based on these two techniques, we develop a new optimizer named AGD that enhances the generalization performance. We evaluate AGD on public datasets of Natural Language Processing (NLP), Computer Vision (CV), and Recommendation Systems (RecSys). Our experimental results demonstrate that AGD outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) optimizers, achieving highly competitive or significantly better predictive performance. Furthermore, we analyze how AGD is able to switch automatically between SGD and the adaptive optimizer and its actual effects on various scenarios. The code is available at //github.com/intelligent-machine-learning/dlrover/tree/master/atorch/atorch/optimizers.
Language models are increasingly being deployed for general problem solving across a wide range of tasks, but are still confined to token-level, left-to-right decision-making processes during inference. This means they can fall short in tasks that require exploration, strategic lookahead, or where initial decisions play a pivotal role. To surmount these challenges, we introduce a new framework for language model inference, Tree of Thoughts (ToT), which generalizes over the popular Chain of Thought approach to prompting language models, and enables exploration over coherent units of text (thoughts) that serve as intermediate steps toward problem solving. ToT allows LMs to perform deliberate decision making by considering multiple different reasoning paths and self-evaluating choices to decide the next course of action, as well as looking ahead or backtracking when necessary to make global choices. Our experiments show that ToT significantly enhances language models' problem-solving abilities on three novel tasks requiring non-trivial planning or search: Game of 24, Creative Writing, and Mini Crosswords. For instance, in Game of 24, while GPT-4 with chain-of-thought prompting only solved 4% of tasks, our method achieved a success rate of 74%. Code repo with all prompts: //github.com/princeton-nlp/tree-of-thought-llm.
In supervised learning - for instance in image classification - modern massive datasets are commonly labeled by a crowd of workers. The obtained labels in this crowdsourcing setting are then aggregated for training, generally leveraging a per-worker trust score. Yet, such workers oriented approaches discard the tasks' ambiguity. Ambiguous tasks might fool expert workers, which is often harmful for the learning step. In standard supervised learning settings - with one label per task - the Area Under the Margin (AUM) was tailored to identify mislabeled data. We adapt the AUM to identify ambiguous tasks in crowdsourced learning scenarios, introducing the Weighted Areas Under the Margin (WAUM). The WAUM is an average of AUMs weighted according to task-dependent scores. We show that the WAUM can help discarding ambiguous tasks from the training set, leading to better generalization performance. We report improvements over existing strategies for learning with a crowd, both on simulated settings, and on real datasets such as CIFAR-10H (a crowdsourced dataset with a high number of answered labels),LabelMe and Music (two datasets with few answered votes).
Remote sensing object detection (RSOD), one of the most fundamental and challenging tasks in the remote sensing field, has received longstanding attention. In recent years, deep learning techniques have demonstrated robust feature representation capabilities and led to a big leap in the development of RSOD techniques. In this era of rapid technical evolution, this review aims to present a comprehensive review of the recent achievements in deep learning based RSOD methods. More than 300 papers are covered in this review. We identify five main challenges in RSOD, including multi-scale object detection, rotated object detection, weak object detection, tiny object detection, and object detection with limited supervision, and systematically review the corresponding methods developed in a hierarchical division manner. We also review the widely used benchmark datasets and evaluation metrics within the field of RSOD, as well as the application scenarios for RSOD. Future research directions are provided for further promoting the research in RSOD.
Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) which are trained on large text corpus via self-supervised learning method, have yielded promising performance on various tasks in Natural Language Processing (NLP). However, though PLMs with huge parameters can effectively possess rich knowledge learned from massive training text and benefit downstream tasks at the fine-tuning stage, they still have some limitations such as poor reasoning ability due to the lack of external knowledge. Research has been dedicated to incorporating knowledge into PLMs to tackle these issues. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of Knowledge-Enhanced Pre-trained Language Models (KE-PLMs) to provide a clear insight into this thriving field. We introduce appropriate taxonomies respectively for Natural Language Understanding (NLU) and Natural Language Generation (NLG) to highlight these two main tasks of NLP. For NLU, we divide the types of knowledge into four categories: linguistic knowledge, text knowledge, knowledge graph (KG), and rule knowledge. The KE-PLMs for NLG are categorized into KG-based and retrieval-based methods. Finally, we point out some promising future directions of KE-PLMs.
Conventional entity typing approaches are based on independent classification paradigms, which make them difficult to recognize inter-dependent, long-tailed and fine-grained entity types. In this paper, we argue that the implicitly entailed extrinsic and intrinsic dependencies between labels can provide critical knowledge to tackle the above challenges. To this end, we propose \emph{Label Reasoning Network(LRN)}, which sequentially reasons fine-grained entity labels by discovering and exploiting label dependencies knowledge entailed in the data. Specifically, LRN utilizes an auto-regressive network to conduct deductive reasoning and a bipartite attribute graph to conduct inductive reasoning between labels, which can effectively model, learn and reason complex label dependencies in a sequence-to-set, end-to-end manner. Experiments show that LRN achieves the state-of-the-art performance on standard ultra fine-grained entity typing benchmarks, and can also resolve the long tail label problem effectively.
Classical machine learning implicitly assumes that labels of the training data are sampled from a clean distribution, which can be too restrictive for real-world scenarios. However, statistical learning-based methods may not train deep learning models robustly with these noisy labels. Therefore, it is urgent to design Label-Noise Representation Learning (LNRL) methods for robustly training deep models with noisy labels. To fully understand LNRL, we conduct a survey study. We first clarify a formal definition for LNRL from the perspective of machine learning. Then, via the lens of learning theory and empirical study, we figure out why noisy labels affect deep models' performance. Based on the theoretical guidance, we categorize different LNRL methods into three directions. Under this unified taxonomy, we provide a thorough discussion of the pros and cons of different categories. More importantly, we summarize the essential components of robust LNRL, which can spark new directions. Lastly, we propose possible research directions within LNRL, such as new datasets, instance-dependent LNRL, and adversarial LNRL. Finally, we envision potential directions beyond LNRL, such as learning with feature-noise, preference-noise, domain-noise, similarity-noise, graph-noise, and demonstration-noise.
Deep learning techniques have received much attention in the area of image denoising. However, there are substantial differences in the various types of deep learning methods dealing with image denoising. Specifically, discriminative learning based on deep learning can ably address the issue of Gaussian noise. Optimization models based on deep learning are effective in estimating the real noise. However, there has thus far been little related research to summarize the different deep learning techniques for image denoising. In this paper, we offer a comparative study of deep techniques in image denoising. We first classify the deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for additive white noisy images; the deep CNNs for real noisy images; the deep CNNs for blind denoising and the deep CNNs for hybrid noisy images, which represents the combination of noisy, blurred and low-resolution images. Then, we analyze the motivations and principles of the different types of deep learning methods. Next, we compare the state-of-the-art methods on public denoising datasets in terms of quantitative and qualitative analysis. Finally, we point out some potential challenges and directions of future research.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
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