This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
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Personalized recommendations form an important part of today's internet ecosystem, helping artists and creators to reach interested users, and helping users to discover new and engaging content. However, many users today are skeptical of platforms that personalize recommendations, in part due to historically careless treatment of personal data and data privacy. Now, businesses that rely on personalized recommendations are entering a new paradigm, where many of their systems must be overhauled to be privacy-first. In this article, we propose an algorithm for personalized recommendations that facilitates both precise and differentially-private measurement. We consider advertising as an example application, and conduct offline experiments to quantify how the proposed privacy-preserving algorithm affects key metrics related to user experience, advertiser value, and platform revenue compared to the extremes of both (private) non-personalized and non-private, personalized implementations.
In this study, we consider a class of non-autonomous time-fractional partial advection-diffusion-reaction (TF-ADR) equations with Caputo type fractional derivative. To obtain the numerical solution of the model problem, we apply the non-symmetric interior penalty Galerkin (NIPG) method in space on a uniform mesh and the L1-scheme in time on a graded mesh. It is demonstrated that the computed solution is discretely stable. Superconvergence of error estimates for the proposed method are obtained using the discrete energy-norm. Also, we have applied the proposed method to solve semilinear problems after linearizing by the Newton linearization process. The theoretical results are verified through numerical experiments.
The use of Air traffic management (ATM) simulators for planing and operations can be challenging due to their modelling complexity. This paper presents XALM (eXplainable Active Learning Metamodel), a three-step framework integrating active learning and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values into simulation metamodels for supporting ATM decision-making. XALM efficiently uncovers hidden relationships among input and output variables in ATM simulators, those usually of interest in policy analysis. Our experiments show XALM's predictive performance comparable to the XGBoost metamodel with fewer simulations. Additionally, XALM exhibits superior explanatory capabilities compared to non-active learning metamodels. Using the `Mercury' (flight and passenger) ATM simulator, XALM is applied to a real-world scenario in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, extending an arrival manager's range and scope by analysing six variables. This case study illustrates XALM's effectiveness in enhancing simulation interpretability and understanding variable interactions. By addressing computational challenges and improving explainability, XALM complements traditional simulation-based analyses. Lastly, we discuss two practical approaches for reducing the computational burden of the metamodelling further: we introduce a stopping criterion for active learning based on the inherent uncertainty of the metamodel, and we show how the simulations used for the metamodel can be reused across key performance indicators, thus decreasing the overall number of simulations needed.
Particle methods based on evolving the spatial derivatives of the solution were originally introduced to simulate reaction-diffusion processes, inspired by vortex methods for the Navier--Stokes equations. Such methods, referred to as gradient random walk methods, were extensively studied in the '90s and have several interesting features, such as being grid free, automatically adapting to the solution by concentrating elements where the gradient is large and significantly reducing the variance of the standard random walk approach. In this work, we revive these ideas by showing how to generalize the approach to a larger class of partial differential equations, including hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. To achieve this goal, we first extend the classical Monte Carlo method to relaxation approximation of systems of conservation laws, and subsequently consider a novel particle dynamics based on the spatial derivatives of the solution. The methodology, combined with asymptotic-preserving splitting discretization, yields a way to construct a new class of gradient-based Monte Carlo methods for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. Several results in one spatial dimension for scalar equations and systems of conservation laws show that the new methods are very promising and yield remarkable improvements compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches, either in terms of variance reduction as well as in describing the shock structure.
V. Levenshtein first proposed the sequence reconstruction problem in 2001. This problem studies the model where the same sequence from some set is transmitted over multiple channels, and the decoder receives the different outputs. Assume that the transmitted sequence is at distance $d$ from some code and there are at most $r$ errors in every channel. Then the sequence reconstruction problem is to find the minimum number of channels required to recover exactly the transmitted sequence that has to be greater than the maximum intersection between two metric balls of radius $r$, where the distance between their centers is at least $d$. In this paper, we study the sequence reconstruction problem of permutations under the Hamming distance. In this model we define a Cayley graph over the symmetric group, study its properties and find the exact value of the largest intersection of its two metric balls for $d=2r$. Moreover, we give a lower bound on the largest intersection of two metric balls for $d=2r-1$.
This paper addresses the problem of providing robust estimators under a functional logistic regression model. Logistic regression is a popular tool in classification problems with two populations. As in functional linear regression, regularization tools are needed to compute estimators for the functional slope. The traditional methods are based on dimension reduction or penalization combined with maximum likelihood or quasi--likelihood techniques and for that reason, they may be affected by misclassified points especially if they are associated to functional covariates with atypical behaviour. The proposal given in this paper adapts some of the best practices used when the covariates are finite--dimensional to provide reliable estimations. Under regularity conditions, consistency of the resulting estimators and rates of convergence for the predictions are derived. A numerical study illustrates the finite sample performance of the proposed method and reveals its stability under different contamination scenarios. A real data example is also presented.
We introduce a new tensor integration method for time-dependent PDEs that controls the tensor rank of the PDE solution via time-dependent diffeomorphic coordinate transformations. Such coordinate transformations are generated by minimizing the normal component of the PDE operator relative to the tensor manifold that approximates the PDE solution via a convex functional. The proposed method significantly improves upon and may be used in conjunction with the coordinate-adaptive algorithm we recently proposed in JCP (2023) Vol. 491, 112378, which is based on non-convex relaxations of the rank minimization problem and Riemannian optimization. Numerical applications demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed coordinate-adaptive tensor integration method are presented and discussed for prototype Liouville and Fokker-Planck equations.
In multi-objective optimization, a single decision vector must balance the trade-offs between many objectives. Solutions achieving an optimal trade-off are said to be Pareto optimal: these are decision vectors for which improving any one objective must come at a cost to another. But as the set of Pareto optimal vectors can be very large, we further consider a more practically significant Pareto-constrained optimization problem, where the goal is to optimize a preference function constrained to the Pareto set. We investigate local methods for solving this constrained optimization problem, which poses significant challenges because the constraint set is (i) implicitly defined, and (ii) generally non-convex and non-smooth, even when the objectives are. We define notions of optimality and stationarity, and provide an algorithm with a last-iterate convergence rate of $O(K^{-1/2})$ to stationarity when the objectives are strongly convex and Lipschitz smooth.
In recent years, the concept of introducing physics to machine learning has become widely popular. Most physics-inclusive ML-techniques however are still limited to a single geometry or a set of parametrizable geometries. Thus, there remains the need to train a new model for a new geometry, even if it is only slightly modified. With this work we introduce a technique with which it is possible to learn approximate solutions to the steady-state Navier--Stokes equations in varying geometries without the need of parametrization. This technique is based on a combination of a U-Net-like CNN and well established discretization methods from the field of the finite difference method.The results of our physics-aware CNN are compared to a state-of-the-art data-based approach. Additionally, it is also shown how our approach performs when combined with the data-based approach.
The paper addresses an error analysis of an Eulerian finite element method used for solving a linearized Navier--Stokes problem in a time-dependent domain. In this study, the domain's evolution is assumed to be known and independent of the solution to the problem at hand. The numerical method employed in the study combines a standard Backward Differentiation Formula (BDF)-type time-stepping procedure with a geometrically unfitted finite element discretization technique. Additionally, Nitsche's method is utilized to enforce the boundary conditions. The paper presents a convergence estimate for several velocity--pressure elements that are inf-sup stable. The estimate demonstrates optimal order convergence in the energy norm for the velocity component and a scaled $L^2(H^1)$-type norm for the pressure component.
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