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Interactive response time is important in analytical pipelines for users to explore a sufficient number of possibilities and make informed business decisions. We consider a forecasting pipeline with large volumes of high-dimensional time series data. Real-time forecasting can be conducted in two steps. First, we specify the part of data to be focused on and the measure to be predicted by slicing, dicing, and aggregating the data. Second, a forecasting model is trained on the aggregated results to predict the trend of the specified measure. While there are a number of forecasting models available, the first step is the performance bottleneck. A natural idea is to utilize sampling to obtain approximate aggregations in real time as the input to train the forecasting model. Our scalable real-time forecasting system FlashP (Flash Prediction) is built based on this idea, with two major challenges to be resolved in this paper: first, we need to figure out how approximate aggregations affect the fitting of forecasting models, and forecasting results; and second, accordingly, what sampling algorithms we should use to obtain these approximate aggregations and how large the samples are. We introduce a new sampling scheme, called GSW sampling, and analyze error bounds for estimating aggregations using GSW samples. We introduce how to construct compact GSW samples with the existence of multiple measures to be analyzed. We conduct experiments to evaluate our solution and compare it with alternatives on real data.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Target-Based Sentiment Analysis aims to detect the opinion aspects (aspect extraction) and the sentiment polarities (sentiment detection) towards them. Both the previous pipeline and integrated methods fail to precisely model the innate connection between these two objectives. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic heterogeneous graph to jointly model the two objectives in an explicit way. Both the ordinary words and sentiment labels are treated as nodes in the heterogeneous graph, so that the aspect words can interact with the sentiment information. The graph is initialized with multiple types of dependencies, and dynamically modified during real-time prediction. Experiments on the benchmark datasets show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art models. Further analysis demonstrates that our model obtains significant performance gain on the challenging instances under multiple-opinion aspects and no-opinion aspect situations.

We propose a novel method for automatic reasoning on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The main idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to promote the fact being true (thesis) or the fact being false (antithesis), respectively. Based on these arguments, a binary classifier, called the judge, decides whether the fact is true or false. The two agents can be considered as sparse, adversarial feature generators that present interpretable evidence for either the thesis or the antithesis. In contrast to other black-box methods, the arguments allow users to get an understanding of the decision of the judge. Since the focus of this work is to create an explainable method that maintains a competitive predictive accuracy, we benchmark our method on the triple classification and link prediction task. Thereby, we find that our method outperforms several baselines on the benchmark datasets FB15k-237, WN18RR, and Hetionet. We also conduct a survey and find that the extracted arguments are informative for users.

It is not until recently that graph neural networks (GNNs) are adopted to perform graph representation learning, among which, those based on the aggregation of features within the neighborhood of a node achieved great success. However, despite such achievements, GNNs illustrate defects in identifying some common structural patterns which, unfortunately, play significant roles in various network phenomena. In this paper, we propose GraLSP, a GNN framework which explicitly incorporates local structural patterns into the neighborhood aggregation through random anonymous walks. Specifically, we capture local graph structures via random anonymous walks, powerful and flexible tools that represent structural patterns. The walks are then fed into the feature aggregation, where we design various mechanisms to address the impact of structural features, including adaptive receptive radius, attention and amplification. In addition, we design objectives that capture similarities between structures and are optimized jointly with node proximity objectives. With the adequate leverage of structural patterns, our model is able to outperform competitive counterparts in various prediction tasks in multiple datasets.

Many irregular domains such as social networks, financial transactions, neuron connections, and natural language structures are represented as graphs. In recent years, a variety of graph neural networks (GNNs) have been successfully applied for representation learning and prediction on such graphs. However, in many of the applications, the underlying graph changes over time and existing GNNs are inadequate for handling such dynamic graphs. In this paper we propose a novel technique for learning embeddings of dynamic graphs based on a tensor algebra framework. Our method extends the popular graph convolutional network (GCN) for learning representations of dynamic graphs using the recently proposed tensor M-product technique. Theoretical results that establish the connection between the proposed tensor approach and spectral convolution of tensors are developed. Numerical experiments on real datasets demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method for an edge classification task on dynamic graphs.

Graphs, which describe pairwise relations between objects, are essential representations of many real-world data such as social networks. In recent years, graph neural networks, which extend the neural network models to graph data, have attracted increasing attention. Graph neural networks have been applied to advance many different graph related tasks such as reasoning dynamics of the physical system, graph classification, and node classification. Most of the existing graph neural network models have been designed for static graphs, while many real-world graphs are inherently dynamic. For example, social networks are naturally evolving as new users joining and new relations being created. Current graph neural network models cannot utilize the dynamic information in dynamic graphs. However, the dynamic information has been proven to enhance the performance of many graph analytical tasks such as community detection and link prediction. Hence, it is necessary to design dedicated graph neural networks for dynamic graphs. In this paper, we propose DGNN, a new {\bf D}ynamic {\bf G}raph {\bf N}eural {\bf N}etwork model, which can model the dynamic information as the graph evolving. In particular, the proposed framework can keep updating node information by capturing the sequential information of edges, the time intervals between edges and information propagation coherently. Experimental results on various dynamic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.

For extracting meaningful topics from texts, their structures should be considered properly. In this paper, we aim to analyze structured time-series documents such as a collection of news articles and a series of scientific papers, wherein topics evolve along time depending on multiple topics in the past and are also related to each other at each time. To this end, we propose a dynamic and static topic model, which simultaneously considers the dynamic structures of the temporal topic evolution and the static structures of the topic hierarchy at each time. We show the results of experiments on collections of scientific papers, in which the proposed method outperformed conventional models. Moreover, we show an example of extracted topic structures, which we found helpful for analyzing research activities.

While deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have shown a great success in single-label image classification, it is important to note that real world images generally contain multiple labels, which could correspond to different objects, scenes, actions and attributes in an image. Traditional approaches to multi-label image classification learn independent classifiers for each category and employ ranking or thresholding on the classification results. These techniques, although working well, fail to explicitly exploit the label dependencies in an image. In this paper, we utilize recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to address this problem. Combined with CNNs, the proposed CNN-RNN framework learns a joint image-label embedding to characterize the semantic label dependency as well as the image-label relevance, and it can be trained end-to-end from scratch to integrate both information in a unified framework. Experimental results on public benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed architecture achieves better performance than the state-of-the-art multi-label classification model