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In biomedical studies, estimating drug effects on chronic diseases requires a long follow-up period, which is difficult to meet in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). The use of a short-term surrogate to replace the long-term outcome for assessing the drug effect relies on stringent assumptions that empirical studies often fail to satisfy. Motivated by a kidney disease study, we investigate the drug effects on long-term outcomes by combining an RCT without observation of long-term outcome and an observational study in which the long-term outcome is observed but unmeasured confounding may exist. Under a mean exchangeability assumption weaker than the previous literature, we identify the average treatment effects in the RCT and derive the associated efficient influence function and semiparametric efficiency bound. Furthermore, we propose a locally efficient doubly robust estimator and an inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator. The former attains the semiparametric efficiency bound if all the working models are correctly specified. The latter has a simpler form and requires much fewer model specifications. The IPW estimator using estimated propensity scores is more efficient than that using true propensity scores and achieves the semiparametric efficient bound in the case of discrete covariates and surrogates with finite support. Both estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Extensive simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators. We apply the proposed methods to estimate the efficacy of oral hydroxychloroquine on renal failure in a real-world data analysis.

With the adoption of machine learning-based solutions in routine clinical practice, the need for reliable interpretability tools has become pressing. Shapley values provide local explanations. The method gained popularity in recent years. Here, we reveal current misconceptions about the ``true to the data'' or ``true to the model'' trade-off and demonstrate its importance in a clinical context. We show that the interpretation of Shapley values, which strongly depends on the choice of a reference distribution for modeling feature removal, is often misunderstood. We further advocate that for applications in medicine, the reference distribution should be tailored to the underlying clinical question. Finally, we advise on the right reference distributions for specific medical use cases.

Although data-driven methods usually have noticeable performance on disease diagnosis and treatment, they are suspected of leakage of privacy due to collecting data for model training. Recently, federated learning provides a secure and trustable alternative to collaboratively train model without any exchange of medical data among multiple institutes. Therefore, it has draw much attention due to its natural merit on privacy protection. However, when heterogenous medical data exists between different hospitals, federated learning usually has to face with degradation of performance. In the paper, we propose a new personalized framework of federated learning to handle the problem. It successfully yields personalized models based on awareness of similarity between local data, and achieves better tradeoff between generalization and personalization than existing methods. After that, we further design a differentially sparse regularizer to improve communication efficiency during procedure of model training. Additionally, we propose an effective method to reduce the computational cost, which improves computation efficiency significantly. Furthermore, we collect 5 real medical datasets, including 2 public medical image datasets and 3 private multi-center clinical diagnosis datasets, and evaluate its performance by conducting nodule classification, tumor segmentation, and clinical risk prediction tasks. Comparing with 13 existing related methods, the proposed method successfully achieves the best model performance, and meanwhile up to 60% improvement of communication efficiency. Source code is public, and can be accessed at: //github.com/ApplicationTechnologyOfMedicalBigData/pFedNet-code.

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a decentralized technique, where contrary to traditional centralized approaches, devices perform a model training in a collaborative manner, while preserving data privacy. Despite the existing efforts made in FL, its environmental impact is still under investigation, since several critical challenges regarding its applicability to wireless networks have been identified. Towards mitigating the carbon footprint of FL, the current work proposes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach, targeting the minimization of both the overall energy consumption of an FL process and any unnecessary resource utilization, by orchestrating the computational and communication resources of the involved devices, while guaranteeing a certain FL model performance target. A penalty function is introduced in the offline phase of the GA that penalizes the strategies that violate the constraints of the environment, ensuring a safe GA process. Evaluation results show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme compared to two state-of-the-art baseline solutions, achieving a decrease of up to 83% in the total energy consumption.

The capacity to generate meaningful symbols and effectively employ them for advanced cognitive processes, such as communication, reasoning, and planning, constitutes a fundamental and distinctive aspect of human intelligence. Existing deep neural networks still notably lag human capabilities in terms of generating symbols for higher cognitive functions. Here, we propose a solution (symbol emergence artificial network (SEA-net)) to endow neural networks with the ability to create symbols, understand semantics, and achieve communication. SEA-net generates symbols that dynamically configure the network to perform specific tasks. These symbols capture compositional semantic information that allows the system to acquire new functions purely by symbolic manipulation or communication. In addition, these self-generated symbols exhibit an intrinsic structure resembling that of natural language, suggesting a common framework underlying the generation and understanding of symbols in both human brains and artificial neural networks. We believe that the proposed framework will be instrumental in producing more capable systems that can synergize the strengths of connectionist and symbolic approaches for artificial intelligence (AI).

Prediction models have been widely adopted as the basis for decision-making in domains as diverse as employment, education, lending, and health. Yet, few real world problems readily present themselves as precisely formulated prediction tasks. In particular, there are often many reasonable target variable options. Prior work has argued that this is an important and sometimes underappreciated choice, and has also shown that target choice can have a significant impact on the fairness of the resulting model. However, the existing literature does not offer a formal framework for characterizing the extent to which target choice matters in a particular task. Our work fills this gap by drawing connections between the problem of target choice and recent work on predictive multiplicity. Specifically, we introduce a conceptual and computational framework for assessing how the choice of target affects individuals' outcomes and selection rate disparities across groups. We call this multi-target multiplicity. Along the way, we refine the study of single-target multiplicity by introducing notions of multiplicity that respect resource constraints -- a feature of many real-world tasks that is not captured by existing notions of predictive multiplicity. We apply our methods on a healthcare dataset, and show that the level of multiplicity that stems from target variable choice can be greater than that stemming from nearly-optimal models of a single target.

In this work, we explore a framework for contextual decision-making to study how the relevance and quantity of past data affects the performance of a data-driven policy. We analyze a contextual Newsvendor problem in which a decision-maker needs to trade-off between an underage and an overage cost in the face of uncertain demand. We consider a setting in which past demands observed under ``close by'' contexts come from close by distributions and analyze the performance of data-driven algorithms through a notion of context-dependent worst-case expected regret. We analyze the broad class of Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization (WERM) policies which weigh past data according to their similarity in the contextual space. This class includes classical policies such as ERM, k-Nearest Neighbors and kernel-based policies. Our main methodological contribution is to characterize exactly the worst-case regret of any WERM policy on any given configuration of contexts. To the best of our knowledge, this provides the first understanding of tight performance guarantees in any contextual decision-making problem, with past literature focusing on upper bounds via concentration inequalities. We instead take an optimization approach, and isolate a structure in the Newsvendor loss function that allows to reduce the infinite-dimensional optimization problem over worst-case distributions to a simple line search. This in turn allows us to unveil fundamental insights that were obfuscated by previous general-purpose bounds. We characterize actual guaranteed performance as a function of the contexts, as well as granular insights on the learning curve of algorithms.

We study stochastic online resource allocation: a decision maker needs to allocate limited resources to stochastically-generated sequentially-arriving requests in order to maximize reward. At each time step, requests are drawn independently from a distribution that is unknown to the decision maker. Online resource allocation and its special cases have been studied extensively in the past, but prior results crucially and universally rely on the strong assumption that the total number of requests (the horizon) is known to the decision maker in advance. In many applications, such as revenue management and online advertising, the number of requests can vary widely because of fluctuations in demand or user traffic intensity. In this work, we develop online algorithms that are robust to horizon uncertainty. In sharp contrast to the known-horizon setting, no algorithm can achieve even a constant asymptotic competitive ratio that is independent of the horizon uncertainty. We introduce a novel generalization of dual mirror descent which allows the decision maker to specify a schedule of time-varying target consumption rates, and prove corresponding performance guarantees. We go on to give a fast algorithm for computing a schedule of target consumption rates that leads to near-optimal performance in the unknown-horizon setting. In particular, our competitive ratio attains the optimal rate of growth (up to logarithmic factors) as the horizon uncertainty grows large. Finally, we also provide a way to incorporate machine-learned predictions about the horizon which interpolates between the known and unknown horizon settings.

This paper proposes a deep-learning-based approach to writer retrieval and identification for papyri, with a focus on identifying fragments associated with a specific writer and those corresponding to the same image. We present a novel neural network architecture that combines a residual backbone with a feature mixing stage to improve retrieval performance, and the final descriptor is derived from a projection layer. The methodology is evaluated on two benchmarks: PapyRow, where we achieve a mAP of 26.6 % and 24.9 % on writer and page retrieval, and HisFragIR20, showing state-of-the-art performance (44.0 % and 29.3 % mAP). Furthermore, our network has an accuracy of 28.7 % for writer identification. Additionally, we conduct experiments on the influence of two binarization techniques on fragments and show that binarizing does not enhance performance. Our code and models are available to the community.

Mobility data is essential for cities and communities to identify areas for necessary improvement. Data collected by mobility providers already contains all the information necessary, but privacy of the individuals needs to be preserved. Differential privacy (DP) defines a mathematical property which guarantees that certain limits of privacy are preserved while sharing such data, but its functionality and privacy protection are difficult to explain to laypeople. In this paper, we adapt risk communication formats in conjunction with a model for the privacy risks of DP. The result are privacy notifications which explain the risk to an individual's privacy when using DP, rather than DP's functionality. We evaluate these novel privacy communication formats in a crowdsourced study. We find that they perform similarly to the best performing DP communications used currently in terms of objective understanding, but did not make our participants as confident in their understanding. We also discovered an influence, similar to the Dunning-Kruger effect, of the statistical numeracy on the effectiveness of some of our privacy communication formats and the DP communication format used currently. These results generate hypotheses in multiple directions, for example, toward the use of risk visualization to improve the understandability of our formats or toward adaptive user interfaces which tailor the risk communication to the characteristics of the reader.