The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data. These models, however, are overfit high-variance estimators, exacerbated by the highly correlated nature of football play-by-play data. Thus, it is imperative to knit uncertainty quantification into the fourth-down decision procedure; we do so using bootstrapping. We find that uncertainty in the estimated optimal fourth-down decision is far greater than that currently expressed by sports analysts in popular sports media. Our contribution is a major advance in fourth-down strategic decision making: far fewer fourth-down decisions are as obvious as analysts claim.
相關內容
This paper investigates extremal quantiles under two-way cluster dependence. We demonstrate that the limiting distribution of the unconditional intermediate order quantiles in the tails converges to a Gaussian distribution. This is remarkable as two-way cluster dependence entails potential non-Gaussianity in general, but extremal quantiles do not suffer from this issue. Building upon this result, we extend our analysis to extremal quantile regressions of intermediate order.
The exponential growth in scientific publications poses a severe challenge for human researchers. It forces attention to more narrow sub-fields, which makes it challenging to discover new impactful research ideas and collaborations outside one's own field. While there are ways to predict a scientific paper's future citation counts, they need the research to be finished and the paper written, usually assessing impact long after the idea was conceived. Here we show how to predict the impact of onsets of ideas that have never been published by researchers. For that, we developed a large evolving knowledge graph built from more than 21 million scientific papers. It combines a semantic network created from the content of the papers and an impact network created from the historic citations of papers. Using machine learning, we can predict the dynamic of the evolving network into the future with high accuracy, and thereby the impact of new research directions. We envision that the ability to predict the impact of new ideas will be a crucial component of future artificial muses that can inspire new impactful and interesting scientific ideas.
Running quantum algorithms protected by quantum error correction requires a real time, classical decoder. To prevent the accumulation of a backlog, this decoder must process syndromes from the quantum device at a faster rate than they are generated. Most prior work on real time decoding has focused on an isolated logical qubit encoded in the surface code. However, for surface code, quantum programs of utility will require multi-qubit interactions performed via lattice surgery. A large merged patch can arise during lattice surgery -- possibly as large as the entire device. This puts a significant strain on a real time decoder, which must decode errors on this merged patch and maintain the level of fault-tolerance that it achieves on isolated logical qubits. These requirements are relaxed by using spatially parallel decoding, which can be accomplished by dividing the physical qubits on the device into multiple overlapping groups and assigning a decoder module to each. We refer to this approach as spatially parallel windows. While previous work has explored similar ideas, none have addressed system-specific considerations pertinent to the task or the constraints from using hardware accelerators. In this work, we demonstrate how to configure spatially parallel windows, so that the scheme (1) is compatible with hardware accelerators, (2) supports general lattice surgery operations, (3) maintains the fidelity of the logical qubits, and (4) meets the throughput requirement for real time decoding. Furthermore, our results reveal the importance of optimally choosing the buffer width to achieve a balance between accuracy and throughput -- a decision that should be influenced by the device's physical noise.
Simpson's paradox is an obstacle to establishing a probabilistic association between two events $a_1$ and $a_2$, given the third (lurking) random variable $B$. We focus on scenarios when the random variables $A$ (which combines $a_1$, $a_2$, and their complements) and $B$ have a common cause $C$ that need not be observed. Alternatively, we can assume that $C$ screens out $A$ from $B$. For such cases, the correct association between $a_1$ and $a_2$ is to be defined via conditioning over $C$. This set-up generalizes the original Simpson's paradox. Now its two contradicting options simply refer to two particular and different causes $C$. We show that if $B$ and $C$ are binary and $A$ is quaternary (the minimal and the most widespread situation for valid Simpson's paradox), the conditioning over any binary common cause $C$ establishes the same direction of the association between $a_1$ and $a_2$ as the conditioning over $B$ in the original formulation of the paradox. Thus, for the minimal common cause, one should choose the option of Simpson's paradox that assumes conditioning over $B$ and not its marginalization. For tertiary (unobserved) common causes $C$ all three options of Simpson's paradox become possible (i.e. marginalized, conditional, and none of them), and one needs prior information on $C$ to choose the right option.
Activation Patching is a method of directly computing causal attributions of behavior to model components. However, applying it exhaustively requires a sweep with cost scaling linearly in the number of model components, which can be prohibitively expensive for SoTA Large Language Models (LLMs). We investigate Attribution Patching (AtP), a fast gradient-based approximation to Activation Patching and find two classes of failure modes of AtP which lead to significant false negatives. We propose a variant of AtP called AtP*, with two changes to address these failure modes while retaining scalability. We present the first systematic study of AtP and alternative methods for faster activation patching and show that AtP significantly outperforms all other investigated methods, with AtP* providing further significant improvement. Finally, we provide a method to bound the probability of remaining false negatives of AtP* estimates.
Hundreds of millions of people now interact with language models, with uses ranging from serving as a writing aid to informing hiring decisions. Yet these language models are known to perpetuate systematic racial prejudices, making their judgments biased in problematic ways about groups like African Americans. While prior research has focused on overt racism in language models, social scientists have argued that racism with a more subtle character has developed over time. It is unknown whether this covert racism manifests in language models. Here, we demonstrate that language models embody covert racism in the form of dialect prejudice: we extend research showing that Americans hold raciolinguistic stereotypes about speakers of African American English and find that language models have the same prejudice, exhibiting covert stereotypes that are more negative than any human stereotypes about African Americans ever experimentally recorded, although closest to the ones from before the civil rights movement. By contrast, the language models' overt stereotypes about African Americans are much more positive. We demonstrate that dialect prejudice has the potential for harmful consequences by asking language models to make hypothetical decisions about people, based only on how they speak. Language models are more likely to suggest that speakers of African American English be assigned less prestigious jobs, be convicted of crimes, and be sentenced to death. Finally, we show that existing methods for alleviating racial bias in language models such as human feedback training do not mitigate the dialect prejudice, but can exacerbate the discrepancy between covert and overt stereotypes, by teaching language models to superficially conceal the racism that they maintain on a deeper level. Our findings have far-reaching implications for the fair and safe employment of language technology.
We consider arbitrary bounded discrete time series. From its statistical feature, without any use of the Fourier transform, we find an almost periodic function which suitably characterizes the corresponding time series.
Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous proposals and may partly explain intuitions.
Fully decentralized learning is gaining momentum for training AI models at the Internet's edge, addressing infrastructure challenges and privacy concerns. In a decentralized machine learning system, data is distributed across multiple nodes, with each node training a local model based on its respective dataset. The local models are then shared and combined to form a global model capable of making accurate predictions on new data. Our exploration focuses on how different types of network structures influence the spreading of knowledge - the process by which nodes incorporate insights gained from learning patterns in data available on other nodes across the network. Specifically, this study investigates the intricate interplay between network structure and learning performance using three network topologies and six data distribution methods. These methods consider different vertex properties, including degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and clustering coefficient, along with whether nodes exhibit high or low values of these metrics. Our findings underscore the significance of global centrality metrics (degree, betweenness) in correlating with learning performance, while local clustering proves less predictive. We highlight the challenges in transferring knowledge from peripheral to central nodes, attributed to a dilution effect during model aggregation. Additionally, we observe that central nodes exert a pull effect, facilitating the spread of knowledge. In examining degree distribution, hubs in Barabasi-Albert networks positively impact learning for central nodes but exacerbate dilution when knowledge originates from peripheral nodes. Finally, we demonstrate the formidable challenge of knowledge circulation outside of segregated communities.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191