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We investigate the emergence of periodic behavior in opinion dynamics and its underlying geometry. For this, we use a bounded-confidence model with contrarian agents in a convolution social network. This means that agents adapt their opinions by interacting with their neighbors in a time-varying social network. Being contrarian, the agents are kept from reaching consensus. This is the key feature that allows the emergence of cyclical trends. We show that the systems either converge to nonconsensual equilibrium or are attracted to periodic or quasi-periodic orbits. We bound the dimension of the attractors and the period of cyclical trends. We exhibit instances where each orbit is dense and uniformly distributed within its attractor. We also investigate the case of randomly changing social networks.

The Cheyette model is a quasi-Gaussian volatility interest rate model widely used to price interest rate derivatives such as European and Bermudan Swaptions for which Monte Carlo simulation has become the industry standard. In low dimensions, these approaches provide accurate and robust prices for European Swaptions but, even in this computationally simple setting, they are known to underestimate the value of Bermudan Swaptions when using the state variables as regressors. This is mainly due to the use of a finite number of predetermined basis functions in the regression. Moreover, in high-dimensional settings, these approaches succumb to the Curse of Dimensionality. To address these issues, Deep-learning techniques have been used to solve the backward Stochastic Differential Equation associated with the value process for European and Bermudan Swaptions; however, these methods are constrained by training time and memory. To overcome these limitations, we propose leveraging Tensor Neural Networks as they can provide significant parameter savings while attaining the same accuracy as classical Dense Neural Networks. In this paper we rigorously benchmark the performance of Tensor Neural Networks and Dense Neural Networks for pricing European and Bermudan Swaptions, and we show that Tensor Neural Networks can be trained faster than Dense Neural Networks and provide more accurate and robust prices than their Dense counterparts.

Although there is mounting empirical evidence for the increase in affective polarization, few mechanistic models can explain its emergence at the population level. The question of how such a phenomenon can emerge from divergent opinions of a population on an ideological issue is still an open issue. In this paper, we establish that human normativity, that is, individual expression of normative opinions based on beliefs about the population, can lead to population-level polarization when ideological institutions distort beliefs in accordance with their objective of moving expressed opinion to one extreme. Using a game-theoretic model, we establish that individuals with more extreme opinions will have more extreme rhetoric and higher misperceptions about their outgroup members. Our model also shows that when social recommendation systems mediate institutional signals, we can observe the formation of different institutional communities, each with its unique community structure and characteristics. Using the model, we identify practical strategies platforms can implement, such as reducing exposure to signals from ideological institutions and a tailored approach to content moderation, both of which can rectify the affective polarization problem within its purview.

A recent development in Bayesian optimization is the use of local optimization strategies, which can deliver strong empirical performance on high-dimensional problems compared to traditional global strategies. The "folk wisdom" in the literature is that the focus on local optimization sidesteps the curse of dimensionality; however, little is known concretely about the expected behavior or convergence of Bayesian local optimization routines. We first study the behavior of the local approach, and find that the statistics of individual local solutions of Gaussian process sample paths are surprisingly good compared to what we would expect to recover from global methods. We then present the first rigorous analysis of such a Bayesian local optimization algorithm recently proposed by M\"uller et al. (2021), and derive convergence rates in both the noisy and noiseless settings.

Extensive efforts in the past have been directed toward the development of summarization datasets. However, a predominant number of these resources have been (semi)-automatically generated, typically through web data crawling, resulting in subpar resources for training and evaluating summarization systems, a quality compromise that is arguably due to the substantial costs associated with generating ground-truth summaries, particularly for diverse languages and specialized domains. To address this issue, we present ACLSum, a novel summarization dataset carefully crafted and evaluated by domain experts. In contrast to previous datasets, ACLSum facilitates multi-aspect summarization of scientific papers, covering challenges, approaches, and outcomes in depth. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate the quality of our resource and the performance of models based on pretrained language models and state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs). Additionally, we explore the effectiveness of extractive versus abstractive summarization within the scholarly domain on the basis of automatically discovered aspects. Our results corroborate previous findings in the general domain and indicate the general superiority of end-to-end aspect-based summarization. Our data is released at //github.com/sobamchan/aclsum.

An asymptotic theory is established for linear functionals of the predictive function given by kernel ridge regression, when the reproducing kernel Hilbert space is equivalent to a Sobolev space. The theory covers a wide variety of linear functionals, including point evaluations, evaluation of derivatives, $L_2$ inner products, etc. We establish the upper and lower bounds of the estimates and their asymptotic normality. It is shown that $\lambda\sim n^{-1}$ is the universal optimal order of magnitude for the smoothing parameter to balance the variance and the worst-case bias. The theory also implies that the optimal $L_\infty$ error of kernel ridge regression can be attained under the optimal smoothing parameter $\lambda\sim n^{-1}\log n$. These optimal rates for the smoothing parameter differ from the known optimal rate $\lambda\sim n^{-\frac{2m}{2m+d}}$ that minimizes the $L_2$ error of the kernel ridge regression.

Equivalence testing, a fundamental problem in the field of distribution testing, seeks to infer if two unknown distributions on $[n]$ are the same or far apart in the total variation distance. Conditional sampling has emerged as a powerful query model and has been investigated by theoreticians and practitioners alike, leading to the design of optimal algorithms albeit in a sequential setting (also referred to as adaptive tester). Given the profound impact of parallel computing over the past decades, there has been a strong desire to design algorithms that enable high parallelization. Despite significant algorithmic advancements over the last decade, parallelizable techniques (also termed non-adaptive testers) have $\tilde{O}(\log^{12}n)$ query complexity, a prohibitively large complexity to be of practical usage. Therefore, the primary challenge is whether it is possible to design algorithms that enable high parallelization while achieving efficient query complexity. Our work provides an affirmative answer to the aforementioned challenge: we present a highly parallelizable tester with a query complexity of $\tilde{O}(\log n)$, achieved through a single round of adaptivity, marking a significant stride towards harmonizing parallelizability and efficiency in equivalence testing.

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.

Recently, Mutual Information (MI) has attracted attention in bounding the generalization error of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). However, it is intractable to accurately estimate the MI in DNNs, thus most previous works have to relax the MI bound, which in turn weakens the information theoretic explanation for generalization. To address the limitation, this paper introduces a probabilistic representation of DNNs for accurately estimating the MI. Leveraging the proposed MI estimator, we validate the information theoretic explanation for generalization, and derive a tighter generalization bound than the state-of-the-art relaxations.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.