As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as outcome variables. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to this so-called ``post-prediction inference'' problem and elucidate three potential sources of error: (i) the relationship between predicted outcomes and their true, unobserved counterparts, (ii) robustness of the machine learning model to resampling or uncertainty about the training data, and (iii) appropriately propagating not just bias but also uncertainty from predictions into the ultimate inference procedure. We also contrast the framework for post-prediction inference with classical work spanning several related fields, including survey sampling, missing data, and semi-supervised learning. This contrast elucidates the role of design in both classical and modern inference problems.
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We explore the viability of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically OpenAI's GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, in emulating human survey respondents and eliciting preferences, with a focus on intertemporal choices. Leveraging the extensive literature on intertemporal discounting for benchmarking, we examine responses from LLMs across various languages and compare them to human responses, exploring preferences between smaller, sooner, and larger, later rewards. Our findings reveal that both GPT models demonstrate less patience than humans, with GPT-3.5 exhibiting a lexicographic preference for earlier rewards, unlike human decision-makers. Though GPT-4 does not display lexicographic preferences, its measured discount rates are still considerably larger than those found in humans. Interestingly, GPT models show greater patience in languages with weak future tense references, such as German and Mandarin, aligning with existing literature that suggests a correlation between language structure and intertemporal preferences. We demonstrate how prompting GPT to explain its decisions, a procedure we term "chain-of-thought conjoint," can mitigate, but does not eliminate, discrepancies between LLM and human responses. While directly eliciting preferences using LLMs may yield misleading results, combining chain-of-thought conjoint with topic modeling aids in hypothesis generation, enabling researchers to explore the underpinnings of preferences. Chain-of-thought conjoint provides a structured framework for marketers to use LLMs to identify potential attributes or factors that can explain preference heterogeneity across different customers and contexts.
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across a spectrum of languages. In this work, we delve into the question: How do LLMs handle multilingualism? We introduce a framework that depicts LLMs' processing of multilingual inputs: In the first several layers, LLMs understand the question, converting multilingual inputs into English to facilitate the task-solving phase. In the intermediate layers, LLMs engage in problem-solving by thinking in English and incorporating multilingual knowledge to obtain factual content, leveraging the self-attention and feed-forward structures, respectively. In the last several layers, LLMs generate responses that align with the original language of the query. In addition, we investigate the existence of language-specific neurons when processing a certain language. To detect neurons activated by the input language, even without labels, we innovatively design a Parallel Language specific Neuron Detection ($\texttt{PLND}$) method that effectively measures the significance of neurons when handling multilingual inputs. By comprehensive ablation analysis through deactivating neurons of different layers and structures, we verify the framework that we propose. Additionally, we demonstrate that we can utilize such a framework to effectively enhance the multilingual ability with much less training effort.
This paper discusses algorithmic resignation, a strategic approach for managing the use of AI systems within organizations. Algorithmic resignation involves the deliberate and informed disengagement from AI assistance in certain scenarios, by embedding governance mechanisms directly into AI systems. Our proposal is not merely about disuse of AI but includes guiding when and how these systems should be used or avoided. We discuss the multifaceted benefits of algorithmic resignation, spanning economic efficiency, reputational gains, and legal compliance. Further, we outline the operationalization of resignation through various methods such as positive and negative nudges, stakeholder incentive alignment, and careful consideration of the level of AI engagement. Using techniques like barring access to AI outputs selectively or providing explicit disclaimers on system performance, algorithmic resignation not only mitigates risks associated with AI but also leverages its benefits, ensuring the responsible and effective use of AI systems.
Factor analysis is a statistical technique that explains correlations among observed random variables with the help of a smaller number of unobserved factors. In traditional full factor analysis, each observed variable is influenced by every factor. However, many applications exhibit interesting sparsity patterns, that is, each observed variable only depends on a subset of the factors. In this paper, we study such sparse factor analysis models from an algebro-geometric perspective. Under mild conditions on the sparsity pattern, we examine the dimension of the set of covariance matrices that corresponds to a given model. Moreover, we study algebraic relations among the covariances in sparse two-factor models. In particular, we identify cases in which a Gr\"obner basis for these relations can be derived via a 2-delightful term order and joins of toric edge ideals.
In the era of data-driven decision-making, the complexity of data analysis necessitates advanced expertise and tools of data science, presenting significant challenges even for specialists. Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as promising aids as data science agents, assisting humans in data analysis and processing. Yet their practical efficacy remains constrained by the varied demands of real-world applications and complicated analytical process. In this paper, we introduce DSEval -- a novel evaluation paradigm, as well as a series of innovative benchmarks tailored for assessing the performance of these agents throughout the entire data science lifecycle. Incorporating a novel bootstrapped annotation method, we streamline dataset preparation, improve the evaluation coverage, and expand benchmarking comprehensiveness. Our findings uncover prevalent obstacles and provide critical insights to inform future advancements in the field.
The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.
Feature attribution methods are popular in interpretable machine learning. These methods compute the attribution of each input feature to represent its importance, but there is no consensus on the definition of "attribution", leading to many competing methods with little systematic evaluation, complicated in particular by the lack of ground truth attribution. To address this, we propose a dataset modification procedure to induce such ground truth. Using this procedure, we evaluate three common methods: saliency maps, rationales, and attentions. We identify several deficiencies and add new perspectives to the growing body of evidence questioning the correctness and reliability of these methods applied on datasets in the wild. We further discuss possible avenues for remedy and recommend new attribution methods to be tested against ground truth before deployment. The code is available at \url{//github.com/YilunZhou/feature-attribution-evaluation}.
Non-convex optimization is ubiquitous in modern machine learning. Researchers devise non-convex objective functions and optimize them using off-the-shelf optimizers such as stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which leverage the local geometry and update iteratively. Even though solving non-convex functions is NP-hard in the worst case, the optimization quality in practice is often not an issue -- optimizers are largely believed to find approximate global minima. Researchers hypothesize a unified explanation for this intriguing phenomenon: most of the local minima of the practically-used objectives are approximately global minima. We rigorously formalize it for concrete instances of machine learning problems.
We introduce an approach for deep reinforcement learning (RL) that improves upon the efficiency, generalization capacity, and interpretability of conventional approaches through structured perception and relational reasoning. It uses self-attention to iteratively reason about the relations between entities in a scene and to guide a model-free policy. Our results show that in a novel navigation and planning task called Box-World, our agent finds interpretable solutions that improve upon baselines in terms of sample complexity, ability to generalize to more complex scenes than experienced during training, and overall performance. In the StarCraft II Learning Environment, our agent achieves state-of-the-art performance on six mini-games -- surpassing human grandmaster performance on four. By considering architectural inductive biases, our work opens new directions for overcoming important, but stubborn, challenges in deep RL.
The dominant sequence transduction models are based on complex recurrent or convolutional neural networks in an encoder-decoder configuration. The best performing models also connect the encoder and decoder through an attention mechanism. We propose a new simple network architecture, the Transformer, based solely on attention mechanisms, dispensing with recurrence and convolutions entirely. Experiments on two machine translation tasks show these models to be superior in quality while being more parallelizable and requiring significantly less time to train. Our model achieves 28.4 BLEU on the WMT 2014 English-to-German translation task, improving over the existing best results, including ensembles by over 2 BLEU. On the WMT 2014 English-to-French translation task, our model establishes a new single-model state-of-the-art BLEU score of 41.8 after training for 3.5 days on eight GPUs, a small fraction of the training costs of the best models from the literature. We show that the Transformer generalizes well to other tasks by applying it successfully to English constituency parsing both with large and limited training data.
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