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Ecological spatial areal models encounter the well-known and challenging problem of spatial confounding. This issue makes it arduous to distinguish between the impacts of observed covariates and spatial random effects. Despite previous research and various proposed methods to tackle this problem, finding a definitive solution remains elusive. In this paper, we propose a one-step version of the spatial+ approach that involves dividing the covariate into two components. One component captures large-scale spatial dependence, while the other accounts for short-scale dependence. This approach eliminates the need to separately fit spatial models for the covariates. We apply this method to analyze two forms of crimes against women, namely rapes and dowry deaths, in Uttar Pradesh, India, exploring their relationship with socio-demographic covariates. To evaluate the performance of the new approach, we conduct extensive simulation studies under different spatial confounding scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed method provides reliable estimates of fixed effects and posterior correlations between different responses.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · TOOLS · 統計量 · Machine Learning · Learning ·
2023 年 10 月 10 日

Introduction: The amount of data generated by original research is growing exponentially. Publicly releasing them is recommended to comply with the Open Science principles. However, data collected from human participants cannot be released as-is without raising privacy concerns. Fully synthetic data represent a promising answer to this challenge. This approach is explored by the French Centre de Recherche en {\'E}pid{\'e}miologie et Sant{\'e} des Populations in the form of a synthetic data generation framework based on Classification and Regression Trees and an original distance-based filtering. The goal of this work was to develop a refined version of this framework and to assess its risk-utility profile with empirical and formal tools, including novel ones developed for the purpose of this evaluation.Materials and Methods: Our synthesis framework consists of four successive steps, each of which is designed to prevent specific risks of disclosure. We assessed its performance by applying two or more of these steps to a rich epidemiological dataset. Privacy and utility metrics were computed for each of the resulting synthetic datasets, which were further assessed using machine learning approaches.Results: Computed metrics showed a satisfactory level of protection against attribute disclosure attacks for each synthetic dataset, especially when the full framework was used. Membership disclosure attacks were formally prevented without significantly altering the data. Machine learning approaches showed a low risk of success for simulated singling out and linkability attacks. Distributional and inferential similarity with the original data were high with all datasets.Discussion: This work showed the technical feasibility of generating publicly releasable synthetic data using a multi-step framework. Formal and empirical tools specifically developed for this demonstration are a valuable contribution to this field. Further research should focus on the extension and validation of these tools, in an effort to specify the intrinsic qualities of alternative data synthesis methods.Conclusion: By successfully assessing the quality of data produced using a novel multi-step synthetic data generation framework, we showed the technical and conceptual soundness of the Open-CESP initiative, which seems ripe for full-scale implementation.

Deep generative models are key-enabling technology to computer vision, text generation and large language models. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have recently gained much attention due to their ability to generate diverse and high-quality samples in many computer vision tasks, as well as to incorporate flexible model architectures and relatively simple training scheme. Quantum generative models, empowered by entanglement and superposition, have brought new insight to learning classical and quantum data. Inspired by the classical counterpart, we propose the quantum denoising diffusion probabilistic models (QuDDPM) to enable efficiently trainable generative learning of quantum data. QuDDPM adopts sufficient layers of circuits to guarantee expressivity, while introduces multiple intermediate training tasks as interpolation between the target distribution and noise to avoid barren plateau and guarantee efficient training. We demonstrate QuDDPM's capability in learning correlated quantum noise model and learning topological structure of nontrivial distribution of quantum data.

Large language models based on self-attention mechanisms have achieved astonishing performances not only in natural language itself, but also in a variety of tasks of different nature. However, regarding processing language, our human brain may not operate using the same principle. Then, a debate is established on the connection between brain computation and artificial self-supervision adopted in large language models. One of most influential hypothesis in brain computation is the predictive coding framework, which proposes to minimize the prediction error by local learning. However, the role of predictive coding and the associated credit assignment in language processing remains unknown. Here, we propose a mean-field learning model within the predictive coding framework, assuming that the synaptic weight of each connection follows a spike and slab distribution, and only the distribution, rather than specific weights, is trained. This meta predictive learning is successfully validated on classifying handwritten digits where pixels are input to the network in sequence, and moreover on the toy and real language corpus. Our model reveals that most of the connections become deterministic after learning, while the output connections have a higher level of variability. The performance of the resulting network ensemble changes continuously with data load, further improving with more training data, in analogy with the emergent behavior of large language models. Therefore, our model provides a starting point to investigate the connection among brain computation, next-token prediction and general intelligence.

Quantum adversarial machine learning is an emerging field that studies the vulnerability of quantum learning systems against adversarial perturbations and develops possible defense strategies. Quantum universal adversarial perturbations are small perturbations, which can make different input samples into adversarial examples that may deceive a given quantum classifier. This is a field that was rarely looked into but worthwhile investigating because universal perturbations might simplify malicious attacks to a large extent, causing unexpected devastation to quantum machine learning models. In this paper, we take a step forward and explore the quantum universal perturbations in the context of heterogeneous classification tasks. In particular, we find that quantum classifiers that achieve almost state-of-the-art accuracy on two different classification tasks can be both conclusively deceived by one carefully-crafted universal perturbation. This result is explicitly demonstrated with well-designed quantum continual learning models with elastic weight consolidation method to avoid catastrophic forgetting, as well as real-life heterogeneous datasets from hand-written digits and medical MRI images. Our results provide a simple and efficient way to generate universal perturbations on heterogeneous classification tasks and thus would provide valuable guidance for future quantum learning technologies.

We propose a new method, the continuous Galerkin method with globally and locally supported basis functions (CG-GL), to address the parametric robustness issues of reduced-order models (ROMs) by incorporating solution-based adaptivity with locally supported finite element basis functions. The CG-GL method combines the accuracy of locally supported basis functions with the efficiency of globally supported data-driven basis functions. Efficient output-based dual-weighted residual error estimates are derived and implemented for the CG-GL method and used to drive efficient online trial space adaptation. An empirical quadrature procedure is introduced for rapid evaluation of nonlinear terms that does not require retraining throughout the adaptation process. Two numerical experiments demonstrate the potential of the CG-GL method to produce accurate approximations with limited training and its tunable tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost.

We present a coordination method for multiple mobile manipulators to sort objects in clutter. We consider the object rearrangement problem in which the objects must be sorted into different groups in a particular order. In clutter, the order constraints could not be easily satisfied since some objects occlude other objects so the occluded ones are not directly accessible to the robots. Those objects occluding others need to be moved more than once to make the occluded objects accessible. Such rearrangement problems fall into the class of nonmonotone rearrangement problems which are computationally intractable. While the nonmonotone problems with order constraints are harder, involving with multiple robots requires another computation for task allocation. The proposed method first finds a sequence of objects to be sorted using a search such that the order constraint in each group is satisfied. The search can solve nonmonotone instances that require temporal relocation of some objects to access the next object to be sorted. Once a complete sorting sequence is found, the objects in the sequence are assigned to multiple mobile manipulators using a greedy allocation method. We develop four versions of the method with different search strategies. In the experiments, we show that our method can find a sorting sequence quickly (e.g., 4.6 sec with 20 objects sorted into five groups) even though the solved instances include hard nonmonotone ones. The extensive tests and the experiments in simulation show the ability of the method to solve the real-world sorting problem using multiple mobile manipulators.

With observational data alone, causal structure learning is a challenging problem. The task becomes easier when having access to data collected from perturbations of the underlying system, even when the nature of these is unknown. Existing methods either do not allow for the presence of latent variables or assume that these remain unperturbed. However, these assumptions are hard to justify if the nature of the perturbations is unknown. We provide results that enable scoring causal structures in the setting with additive, but unknown interventions. Specifically, we propose a maximum-likelihood estimator in a structural equation model that exploits system-wide invariances to output an equivalence class of causal structures from perturbation data. Furthermore, under certain structural assumptions on the population model, we provide a simple graphical characterization of all the DAGs in the interventional equivalence class. We illustrate the utility of our framework on synthetic data as well as real data involving California reservoirs and protein expressions. The software implementation is available as the Python package \emph{utlvce}.

Electrical circuits are present in a variety of technologies, making their design an important part of computer aided engineering. The growing number of tunable parameters that affect the final design leads to a need for new approaches of quantifying their impact. Machine learning may play a key role in this regard, however current approaches often make suboptimal use of existing knowledge about the system at hand. In terms of circuits, their description via modified nodal analysis is well-understood. This particular formulation leads to systems of differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) which bring with them a number of peculiarities, e.g. hidden constraints that the solution needs to fulfill. We aim to use the recently introduced dissection concept for DAEs that can decouple a given system into ordinary differential equations, only depending on differential variables, and purely algebraic equations that describe the relations between differential and algebraic variables. The idea then is to only learn the differential variables and reconstruct the algebraic ones using the relations from the decoupling. This approach guarantees that the algebraic constraints are fulfilled up to the accuracy of the nonlinear system solver, which represents the main benefit highlighted in this article.

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most widely used techniques in statistical learning for estimating the test error of a model, but its behavior is not yet fully understood. It has been shown that standard confidence intervals for test error using estimates from CV may have coverage below nominal levels. This phenomenon occurs because each sample is used in both the training and testing procedures during CV and as a result, the CV estimates of the errors become correlated. Without accounting for this correlation, the estimate of the variance is smaller than it should be. One way to mitigate this issue is by estimating the mean squared error of the prediction error instead using nested CV. This approach has been shown to achieve superior coverage compared to intervals derived from standard CV. In this work, we generalize the nested CV idea to the Cox proportional hazards model and explore various choices of test error for this setting.

The investigation of mixture models is a key to understand and visualize the distribution of multivariate data. Most mixture models approaches are based on likelihoods, and are not adapted to distribution with finite support or without a well-defined density function. This study proposes the Augmented Quantization method, which is a reformulation of the classical quantization problem but which uses the p-Wasserstein distance. This metric can be computed in very general distribution spaces, in particular with varying supports. The clustering interpretation of quantization is revisited in a more general framework. The performance of Augmented Quantization is first demonstrated through analytical toy problems. Subsequently, it is applied to a practical case study involving river flooding, wherein mixtures of Dirac and Uniform distributions are built in the input space, enabling the identification of the most influential variables.

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