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Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, and engineering. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory has shown that a priori probability predictions based on pattern complexities can be made in a broad class of input-output maps. These algorithmic probability predictions do not depend on a detailed knowledge of how output patterns were produced, or historical statistical data. Although quantitatively fairly accurate, a main weakness of these predictions is that they are given as an upper bound on the probability of a pattern, but many low complexity, low probability patterns occur, for which the upper bound has little predictive value. Here we study this low complexity, low probability phenomenon by looking at example maps, namely a finite state transducer, natural time series data, RNA molecule structures, and polynomial curves. Some mechanisms causing low complexity, low probability behaviour are identified, and we argue this behaviour should be assumed as a default in the real world algorithmic probability studies. Additionally, we examine some applications of algorithmic probability and discuss some implications of low complexity, low probability patterns for several research areas including simplicity in physics and biology, a priori probability predictions, Solomonoff induction and Occam's razor, machine learning, and password guessing.

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《計算機信息》雜志發表高質量的論文,擴大了運籌學和計算的范圍,尋求有關理論、方法、實驗、系統和應用方面的原創研究論文、新穎的調查和教程論文,以及描述新的和有用的軟件工具的論文。官網鏈接: · 相互獨立的 · 正交 · 哈爾濱工業大學(HIT) · ·
2022 年 9 月 18 日

The Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) asserts that for every $\varepsilon>0$ there exists $k$ such that $k$-SAT requires time $(2-\varepsilon)^n$. The field of fine-grained complexity has leveraged SETH to prove quite tight conditional lower bounds for dozens of problems in various domains and complexity classes, including Edit Distance, Graph Diameter, Hitting Set, Independent Set, and Orthogonal Vectors. Yet, it has been repeatedly asked in the literature whether SETH-hardness results can be proven for other fundamental problems such as Hamiltonian Path, Independent Set, Chromatic Number, MAX-$k$-SAT, and Set Cover. In this paper, we show that fine-grained reductions implying even $\lambda^n$-hardness of these problems from SETH for any $\lambda>1$, would imply new circuit lower bounds: super-linear lower bounds for Boolean series-parallel circuits or polynomial lower bounds for arithmetic circuits (each of which is a four-decade open question). We also extend this barrier result to the class of parameterized problems. Namely, for every $\lambda>1$ we conditionally rule out fine-grained reductions implying SETH-based lower bounds of $\lambda^k$ for a number of problems parameterized by the solution size $k$. Our main technical tool is a new concept called polynomial formulations. In particular, we show that many problems can be represented by relatively succinct low-degree polynomials, and that any problem with such a representation cannot be proven SETH-hard (without proving new circuit lower bounds).

The $h$-index is a metric used to measure the impact of a user in a publication setting, such as a member of a social network with many highly liked posts or a researcher in an academic domain with many highly cited publications. Specifically, the $h$-index of a user is the largest integer $h$ such that at least $h$ publications of the user have at least $h$ units of positive feedback. We design an algorithm that, given query access to the $n$ publications of a user and each publication's corresponding positive feedback number, outputs a $(1\pm \varepsilon)$-approximation of the $h$-index of this user with probability at least $1-\delta$ in time \[ O(\frac{n \cdot \ln{(1/\delta)}}{\varepsilon^2 \cdot h}), \] where $h$ is the actual $h$-index which is unknown to the algorithm a-priori. We then design a novel lower bound technique that allows us to prove that this bound is in fact asymptotically optimal for this problem in all parameters $n,h,\varepsilon,$ and $\delta$. Our work is one of the first in sublinear time algorithms that addresses obtaining asymptotically optimal bounds, especially in terms of the error and confidence parameters. As such, we focus on designing novel techniques for this task. In particular, our lower bound technique seems quite general -- to showcase this, we also use our approach to prove an asymptotically optimal lower bound for the problem of estimating the number of triangles in a graph in sublinear time, which now is also optimal in the error and confidence parameters. This result improves upon prior lower bounds of Eden, Levi, Ron, and Seshadhri (FOCS'15) for this problem, as well as multiple follow-ups that extended this lower bound to other subgraph counting problems.

Positive and unlabelled learning is an important problem which arises naturally in many applications. The significant limitation of almost all existing methods lies in assuming that the propensity score function is constant (SCAR assumption), which is unrealistic in many practical situations. Avoiding this assumption, we consider parametric approach to the problem of joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions. We show that under mild assumptions when both functions have the same parametric form (e.g. logistic with different parameters) the corresponding parameters are identifiable. Motivated by this, we propose two approaches to their estimation: joint maximum likelihood method and the second approach based on alternating maximization of two Fisher consistent expressions. Our experimental results show that the proposed methods are comparable or better than the existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.

Propose-Test-Release (PTR) is a differential privacy framework that works with local sensitivity of functions, instead of their global sensitivity. This framework is typically used for releasing robust statistics such as median or trimmed mean in a differentially private manner. While PTR is a common framework introduced over a decade ago, using it in applications such as robust SGD where we need many adaptive robust queries is challenging. This is mainly due to the lack of Renyi Differential Privacy (RDP) analysis, an essential ingredient underlying the moments accountant approach for differentially private deep learning. In this work, we generalize the standard PTR and derive the first RDP bound for it when the target function has bounded global sensitivity. We show that our RDP bound for PTR yields tighter DP guarantees than the directly analyzed $(\eps, \delta)$-DP. We also derive the algorithm-specific privacy amplification bound of PTR under subsampling. We show that our bound is much tighter than the general upper bound and close to the lower bound. Our RDP bounds enable tighter privacy loss calculation for the composition of many adaptive runs of PTR. As an application of our analysis, we show that PTR and our theoretical results can be used to design differentially private variants for byzantine robust training algorithms that use robust statistics for gradients aggregation. We conduct experiments on the settings of label, feature, and gradient corruption across different datasets and architectures. We show that PTR-based private and robust training algorithm significantly improves the utility compared with the baseline.

Much of the literature on optimal design of bandit algorithms is based on minimization of expected regret. It is well known that designs that are optimal over certain exponential families can achieve expected regret that grows logarithmically in the number of arm plays, at a rate governed by the Lai-Robbins lower bound. In this paper, we show that when one uses such optimized designs, the regret distribution of the associated algorithms necessarily has a very heavy tail, specifically, that of a truncated Cauchy distribution. Furthermore, for $p>1$, the $p$'th moment of the regret distribution grows much faster than poly-logarithmically, in particular as a power of the total number of arm plays. We show that optimized UCB bandit designs are also fragile in an additional sense, namely when the problem is even slightly mis-specified, the regret can grow much faster than the conventional theory suggests. Our arguments are based on standard change-of-measure ideas, and indicate that the most likely way that regret becomes larger than expected is when the optimal arm returns below-average rewards in the first few arm plays, thereby causing the algorithm to believe that the arm is sub-optimal. To alleviate the fragility issues exposed, we show that UCB algorithms can be modified so as to ensure a desired degree of robustness to mis-specification. In doing so, we also provide a sharp trade-off between the amount of UCB exploration and the tail exponent of the resulting regret distribution.

Classical results in general equilibrium theory assume divisible goods and convex preferences of market participants. In many real-world markets, participants have non-convex preferences and the allocation problem needs to consider complex constraints. Electricity markets are a prime example. In such markets, Walrasian prices are impossible, and heuristic pricing rules based on the dual of the relaxed allocation problem are used in practice. However, these rules have been criticized for high side-payments and inadequate congestion signals. We show that existing pricing heuristics optimize specific design goals that can be conflicting. The trade-offs can be substantial, and we establish that the design of pricing rules is fundamentally a multi-objective optimization problem addressing different incentives. In addition to traditional multi-objective optimization techniques using weighing of individual objectives, we introduce a novel parameter-free pricing rule that minimizes incentives for market participants to deviate locally. Our findings show how the new pricing rule capitalizes on the upsides of existing pricing rules under scrutiny today. It leads to prices that incur low make-whole payments while providing adequate congestion signals and low lost opportunity costs. Our suggested pricing rule does not require weighing of objectives, it is computationally scalable, and balances trade-offs in a principled manner, addressing an important policy issue in electricity markets.

Time series classification is an important problem in real world. Due to its non-stationary property that the distribution changes over time, it remains challenging to build models for generalization to unseen distributions. In this paper, we propose to view the time series classification problem from the distribution perspective. We argue that the temporal complexity attributes to the unknown latent distributions within. To this end, we propose DIVERSIFY to learn generalized representations for time series classification. DIVERSIFY takes an iterative process: it first obtains the worst-case distribution scenario via adversarial training, then matches the distributions of the obtained sub-domains. We also present some theoretical insights. We conduct experiments on gesture recognition, speech commands recognition, wearable stress and affect detection, and sensor-based human activity recognition with a total of seven datasets in different settings. Results demonstrate that DIVERSIFY significantly outperforms other baselines and effectively characterizes the latent distributions by qualitative and quantitative analysis.

We consider a potential outcomes model in which interference may be present between any two units but the extent of interference diminishes with spatial distance. The causal estimand is the global average treatment effect, which compares outcomes under the counterfactuals that all or no units are treated. We study a class of designs in which space is partitioned into clusters that are randomized into treatment and control. For each design, we estimate the treatment effect using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator that compares the average outcomes of units with all or no neighbors treated, where the neighborhood radius is of the same order as the cluster size dictated by the design. We derive the estimator's rate of convergence as a function of the design and degree of interference and use this to obtain estimator-design pairs that achieve near-optimal rates of convergence under relatively minimal assumptions on interference. We prove that the estimators are asymptotically normal and provide a variance estimator. For practical implementation of the designs, we suggest partitioning space using clustering algorithms.

Human-in-the-loop aims to train an accurate prediction model with minimum cost by integrating human knowledge and experience. Humans can provide training data for machine learning applications and directly accomplish some tasks that are hard for computers in the pipeline with the help of machine-based approaches. In this paper, we survey existing works on human-in-the-loop from a data perspective and classify them into three categories with a progressive relationship: (1) the work of improving model performance from data processing, (2) the work of improving model performance through interventional model training, and (3) the design of the system independent human-in-the-loop. Using the above categorization, we summarize major approaches in the field, along with their technical strengths/ weaknesses, we have simple classification and discussion in natural language processing, computer vision, and others. Besides, we provide some open challenges and opportunities. This survey intends to provide a high-level summarization for human-in-the-loop and motivates interested readers to consider approaches for designing effective human-in-the-loop solutions.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

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