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The discrepant posterior phenomenon (DPP) is a counter-intuitive phenomenon that can frequently occur in a Bayesian analysis of multivariate parameters. It refers to the phenomenon that a parameter estimate based on a posterior is more extreme than both of those inferred based on either the prior or the likelihood alone. Inferential claims that exhibit DPP defy the common intuition that the posterior is a prior-data compromise, and the phenomenon can be surprisingly ubiquitous in well-behaved Bayesian models. In this paper we revisit this phenomenon and, using point estimation as an example, derive conditions under which the DPP occurs in Bayesian models with exponential quadratic likelihoods and conjugate multivariate Gaussian priors. The family of exponential quadratic likelihood models includes Gaussian models and those models with local asymptotic normality property. We provide an intuitive geometric interpretation of the phenomenon and show that there exists a nontrivial space of marginal directions such that the DPP occurs. We further relate the phenomenon to the Simpson's paradox and discover their deep-rooted connection that is associated with marginalization. We also draw connections with Bayesian computational algorithms when difficult geometry exists. Our discovery demonstrates that DPP is more prevalent than previously understood and anticipated. Theoretical results are complemented by numerical illustrations. Scenarios covered in this study have implications for parameterization, sensitivity analysis, and prior choice for Bayesian modeling.

The difficulty in specifying rewards for many real-world problems has led to an increased focus on learning rewards from human feedback, such as demonstrations. However, there are often many different reward functions that explain the human feedback, leaving agents with uncertainty over what the true reward function is. While most policy optimization approaches handle this uncertainty by optimizing for expected performance, many applications demand risk-averse behavior. We derive a novel policy gradient-style robust optimization approach, PG-BROIL, that optimizes a soft-robust objective that balances expected performance and risk. To the best of our knowledge, PG-BROIL is the first policy optimization algorithm robust to a distribution of reward hypotheses which can scale to continuous MDPs. Results suggest that PG-BROIL can produce a family of behaviors ranging from risk-neutral to risk-averse and outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learning algorithms when learning from ambiguous demonstrations by hedging against uncertainty, rather than seeking to uniquely identify the demonstrator's reward function.

Adversarial training is among the most effective techniques to improve the robustness of models against adversarial perturbations. However, the full effect of this approach on models is not well understood. For example, while adversarial training can reduce the adversarial risk (prediction error against an adversary), it sometimes increase standard risk (generalization error when there is no adversary). Even more, such behavior is impacted by various elements of the learning problem, including the size and quality of training data, specific forms of adversarial perturbations in the input, model overparameterization, and adversary's power, among others. In this paper, we focus on \emph{distribution perturbing} adversary framework wherein the adversary can change the test distribution within a neighborhood of the training data distribution. The neighborhood is defined via Wasserstein distance between distributions and the radius of the neighborhood is a measure of adversary's manipulative power. We study the tradeoff between standard risk and adversarial risk and derive the Pareto-optimal tradeoff, achievable over specific classes of models, in the infinite data limit with features dimension kept fixed. We consider three learning settings: 1) Regression with the class of linear models; 2) Binary classification under the Gaussian mixtures data model, with the class of linear classifiers; 3) Regression with the class of random features model (which can be equivalently represented as two-layer neural network with random first-layer weights). We show that a tradeoff between standard and adversarial risk is manifested in all three settings. We further characterize the Pareto-optimal tradeoff curves and discuss how a variety of factors, such as features correlation, adversary's power or the width of two-layer neural network would affect this tradeoff.

While existing work in robust deep learning has focused on small pixel-level $\ell_p$ norm-based perturbations, this may not account for perturbations encountered in several real world settings. In many such cases although test data might not be available, broad specifications about the types of perturbations (such as an unknown degree of rotation) may be known. We consider a setup where robustness is expected over an unseen test domain that is not i.i.d. but deviates from the training domain. While this deviation may not be exactly known, its broad characterization is specified a priori, in terms of attributes. We propose an adversarial training approach which learns to generate new samples so as to maximize exposure of the classifier to the attributes-space, without having access to the data from the test domain. Our adversarial training solves a min-max optimization problem, with the inner maximization generating adversarial perturbations, and the outer minimization finding model parameters by optimizing the loss on adversarial perturbations generated from the inner maximization. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach on three types of naturally occurring perturbations -- object-related shifts, geometric transformations, and common image corruptions. Our approach enables deep neural networks to be robust against a wide range of naturally occurring perturbations. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach by showing the robustness gains of deep neural networks trained using our adversarial training on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and a new variant of the CLEVR dataset.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a highly popular model-free reinforcement learning (RL) approach. However, in continuous state and actions spaces and a Gaussian policy -- common in computer animation and robotics -- PPO is prone to getting stuck in local optima. In this paper, we observe a tendency of PPO to prematurely shrink the exploration variance, which naturally leads to slow progress. Motivated by this, we borrow ideas from CMA-ES, a black-box optimization method designed for intelligent adaptive Gaussian exploration, to derive PPO-CMA, a novel proximal policy optimization approach that can expand the exploration variance on objective function slopes and shrink the variance when close to the optimum. This is implemented by using separate neural networks for policy mean and variance and training the mean and variance in separate passes. Our experiments demonstrate a clear improvement over vanilla PPO in many difficult OpenAI Gym MuJoCo tasks.

To solve complex real-world problems with reinforcement learning, we cannot rely on manually specified reward functions. Instead, we can have humans communicate an objective to the agent directly. In this work, we combine two approaches to learning from human feedback: expert demonstrations and trajectory preferences. We train a deep neural network to model the reward function and use its predicted reward to train an DQN-based deep reinforcement learning agent on 9 Atari games. Our approach beats the imitation learning baseline in 7 games and achieves strictly superhuman performance on 2 games without using game rewards. Additionally, we investigate the goodness of fit of the reward model, present some reward hacking problems, and study the effects of noise in the human labels.

While Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have empirically produced impressive results on learning complex real-world distributions, recent work has shown that they suffer from lack of diversity or mode collapse. The theoretical work of Arora et al.~\cite{AroraGeLiMaZh17} suggests a dilemma about GANs' statistical properties: powerful discriminators cause overfitting, whereas weak discriminators cannot detect mode collapse. In contrast, we show in this paper that GANs can in principle learn distributions in Wasserstein distance (or KL-divergence in many cases) with polynomial sample complexity, if the discriminator class has strong distinguishing power against the particular generator class (instead of against all possible generators). For various generator classes such as mixture of Gaussians, exponential families, and invertible neural networks generators, we design corresponding discriminators (which are often neural nets of specific architectures) such that the Integral Probability Metric (IPM) induced by the discriminators can provably approximate the Wasserstein distance and/or KL-divergence. This implies that if the training is successful, then the learned distribution is close to the true distribution in Wasserstein distance or KL divergence, and thus cannot drop modes. Our preliminary experiments show that on synthetic datasets the test IPM is well correlated with KL divergence, indicating that the lack of diversity may be caused by the sub-optimality in optimization instead of statistical inefficiency.

Discrete correlation filter (DCF) based trackers have shown considerable success in visual object tracking. These trackers often make use of low to mid level features such as histogram of gradients (HoG) and mid-layer activations from convolution neural networks (CNNs). We argue that including semantically higher level information to the tracked features may provide further robustness to challenging cases such as viewpoint changes. Deep salient object detection is one example of such high level features, as it make use of semantic information to highlight the important regions in the given scene. In this work, we propose an improvement over DCF based trackers by combining saliency based and other features based filter responses. This combination is performed with an adaptive weight on the saliency based filter responses, which is automatically selected according to the temporal consistency of visual saliency. We show that our method consistently improves a baseline DCF based tracker especially in challenging cases and performs superior to the state-of-the-art. Our improved tracker operates at 9.3 fps, introducing a small computational burden over the baseline which operates at 11 fps.

We explore deep reinforcement learning methods for multi-agent domains. We begin by analyzing the difficulty of traditional algorithms in the multi-agent case: Q-learning is challenged by an inherent non-stationarity of the environment, while policy gradient suffers from a variance that increases as the number of agents grows. We then present an adaptation of actor-critic methods that considers action policies of other agents and is able to successfully learn policies that require complex multi-agent coordination. Additionally, we introduce a training regimen utilizing an ensemble of policies for each agent that leads to more robust multi-agent policies. We show the strength of our approach compared to existing methods in cooperative as well as competitive scenarios, where agent populations are able to discover various physical and informational coordination strategies.

The field of Multi-Agent System (MAS) is an active area of research within Artificial Intelligence, with an increasingly important impact in industrial and other real-world applications. Within a MAS, autonomous agents interact to pursue personal interests and/or to achieve common objectives. Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) have emerged as one of the prominent agent architectures to govern the agents' autonomous behavior, where both algorithms and communication models are driven by the structure of the specific problem. During the last decade, several extensions to the DCOP model have enabled them to support MAS in complex, real-time, and uncertain environments. This survey aims at providing an overview of the DCOP model, giving a classification of its multiple extensions and addressing both resolution methods and applications that find a natural mapping within each class of DCOPs. The proposed classification suggests several future perspectives for DCOP extensions, and identifies challenges in the design of efficient resolution algorithms, possibly through the adaptation of strategies from different areas.