The separate tasks of denoising, least squares expectation, and manifold learning can often be posed in a common setting of finding the conditional expectations arising from a product of two random variables. This paper focuses on this more general problem and describes an operator theoretic approach to estimating the conditional expectation. Kernel integral operators are used as a compactification tool, to set up the estimation problem as a linear inverse problem in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This equation is shown to have solutions that allow numerical approximation, thus guaranteeing the convergence of data-driven implementations. The overall technique is easy to implement, and their successful application to some real-world problems are also shown.
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Suitable discretizations through tensor product formulas of popular multidimensional operators (diffusion--advection, for instance) lead to matrices with $d$-dimensional Kronecker sum structure. For evolutionary PDEs containing such operators and integrated in time with exponential integrators, it is of paramount importance to efficiently approximate actions of $\varphi$-functions of this kind of matrices. In this work, we show how to produce directional split approximations of third order with respect to the time step size. They conveniently employ tensor-matrix products (realized with highly performance level 3 BLAS) and that allow for the effective usage in practice of exponential integrators up to order three. The approach has been successfully tested against state-of-the-art techniques on two well-known physical models, namely FitzHugh--Nagumo and Schnakenberg.
We consider several basic questions on distributed routing in directed graphs with multiple additive costs, or metrics, and multiple constraints. Distributed routing in this sense is used in several protocols, such as IS-IS and OSPF. A practical approach to the multi-constraint routing problem is to, first, combine the metrics into a single `composite' metric, and then apply one-to-all shortest path algorithms, e.g. Dijkstra, in order to find shortest path trees. We show that, in general, even if a feasible path exists and is known for every source and destination pair, it is impossible to guarantee a distributed routing under several constraints. We also study the question of choosing the optimal `composite' metric. We show that under certain mathematical assumptions we can efficiently find a convex combination of several metrics that maximizes the number of discovered feasible paths. Sometimes it can be done analytically, and is in general possible using what we call a 'smart iterative approach'. We illustrate these findings by extensive experiments on several typical network topologies.
Bayesian cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for predictive model assessment that is simple to implement and broadly applicable. A wide range of CV schemes is available for time series applications, including generic leave-one-out (LOO) and K-fold methods, as well as specialized approaches intended to deal with serial dependence such as leave-future-out (LFO), h-block, and hv-block. Existing large-sample results show that both specialized and generic methods are applicable to models of serially-dependent data. However, large sample consistency results overlook the impact of sampling variability on accuracy in finite samples. Moreover, the accuracy of a CV scheme depends on many aspects of the procedure. We show that poor design choices can lead to elevated rates of adverse selection. In this paper, we consider the problem of identifying the regression component of an important class of models of data with serial dependence, autoregressions of order p with q exogenous regressors (ARX(p,q)), under the logarithmic scoring rule. We show that when serial dependence is present, scores computed using the joint (multivariate) density have lower variance and better model selection accuracy than the popular pointwise estimator. In addition, we present a detailed case study of the special case of ARX models with fixed autoregressive structure and variance. For this class, we derive the finite-sample distribution of the CV estimators and the model selection statistic. We conclude with recommendations for practitioners.
The generalized Golub-Kahan bidiagonalization has been used to solve saddle-point systems where the leading block is symmetric and positive definite. We extend this iterative method for the case where the symmetry condition no longer holds. We do so by relying on the known connection the algorithm has with the Conjugate Gradient method and following the line of reasoning that adapts the latter into the Full Orthogonalization Method. We propose appropriate stopping criteria based on the residual and an estimate of the energy norm for the error associated with the primal variable. Numerical comparison with GMRES highlights the advantages of our proposed strategy regarding its low memory requirements and the associated implications.
We investigate block diagonal and hierarchical nested stochastic multivariate Gaussian models by studying their sample cross-correlation matrix on high dimensions. By performing numerical simulations, we compare a filtered sample cross-correlation with the population cross-correlation matrices by using several rotationally invariant estimators (RIE) and hierarchical clustering estimators (HCE) under several loss functions. We show that at large but finite sample size, sample cross-correlation filtered by RIE estimators are often outperformed by HCE estimators for several of the loss functions. We also show that for block models and for hierarchically nested block models the best determination of the filtered sample cross-correlation is achieved by introducing two-step estimators combining state-of-the-art non-linear shrinkage models with hierarchical clustering estimators.
We establish finite-sample guarantees for efficient proper learning of bounded-degree polytrees, a rich class of high-dimensional probability distributions and a subclass of Bayesian networks, a widely-studied type of graphical model. Recently, Bhattacharyya et al. (2021) obtained finite-sample guarantees for recovering tree-structured Bayesian networks, i.e., 1-polytrees. We extend their results by providing an efficient algorithm which learns $d$-polytrees in polynomial time and sample complexity for any bounded $d$ when the underlying undirected graph (skeleton) is known. We complement our algorithm with an information-theoretic sample complexity lower bound, showing that the dependence on the dimension and target accuracy parameters are nearly tight.
With observational data alone, causal structure learning is a challenging problem. The task becomes easier when having access to data collected from perturbations of the underlying system, even when the nature of these is unknown. Existing methods either do not allow for the presence of latent variables or assume that these remain unperturbed. However, these assumptions are hard to justify if the nature of the perturbations is unknown. We provide results that enable scoring causal structures in the setting with additive, but unknown interventions. Specifically, we propose a maximum-likelihood estimator in a structural equation model that exploits system-wide invariances to output an equivalence class of causal structures from perturbation data. Furthermore, under certain structural assumptions on the population model, we provide a simple graphical characterization of all the DAGs in the interventional equivalence class. We illustrate the utility of our framework on synthetic data as well as real data involving California reservoirs and protein expressions. The software implementation is available as the Python package \emph{utlvce}.
We present a multigrid algorithm to solve efficiently the large saddle-point systems of equations that typically arise in PDE-constrained optimization under uncertainty. The algorithm is based on a collective smoother that at each iteration sweeps over the nodes of the computational mesh, and solves a reduced saddle-point system whose size depends on the number $N$ of samples used to discretized the probability space. We show that this reduced system can be solved with optimal $O(N)$ complexity. We test the multigrid method on three problems: a linear-quadratic problem, possibly with a local or a boundary control, for which the multigrid method is used to solve directly the linear optimality system; a nonsmooth problem with box constraints and $L^1$-norm penalization on the control, in which the multigrid scheme is used within a semismooth Newton iteration; a risk-adverse problem with the smoothed CVaR risk measure where the multigrid method is called within a preconditioned Newton iteration. In all cases, the multigrid algorithm exhibits excellent performances and robustness with respect to the parameters of interest.
Acceleration of gradient-based optimization methods is an issue of significant practical and theoretical interest, particularly in machine learning applications. Most research has focused on optimization over Euclidean spaces, but given the need to optimize over spaces of probability measures in many machine learning problems, it is of interest to investigate accelerated gradient methods in this context too. To this end, we introduce a Hamiltonian-flow approach that is analogous to moment-based approaches in Euclidean space. We demonstrate that algorithms based on this approach can achieve convergence rates of arbitrarily high order. Numerical examples illustrate our claim.
The emergence of complex structures in the systems governed by a simple set of rules is among the most fascinating aspects of Nature. The particularly powerful and versatile model suitable for investigating this phenomenon is provided by cellular automata, with the Game of Life being one of the most prominent examples. However, this simplified model can be too limiting in providing a tool for modelling real systems. To address this, we introduce and study an extended version of the Game of Life, with the dynamical process governing the rule selection at each step. We show that the introduced modification significantly alters the behaviour of the game. We also demonstrate that the choice of the synchronization policy can be used to control the trade-off between the stability and the growth in the system.
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