We consider the problem of assessing whether, in an individual case, there is a causal relationship between an observed exposure and a response variable. When data are available on similar individuals we may be able to estimate prospective probabilities, but even under ideal conditions these are typically inadequate to identify the "probability of causation": instead we can only derive bounds for this. These bounds can be improved or amended when we have information on additional variables, such as mediators or covariates. When a covariate is unobserved or ignored, this will typically lead to biased inferences. We show by examples how serious such biases can be.
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sEMG pattern recognition algorithms have been explored extensively in decoding movement intent, yet are known to be vulnerable to changing recording conditions, exhibiting significant drops in performance across subjects, and even across sessions. Multi-channel surface EMG, also referred to as high-density sEMG (HD-sEMG) systems, have been used to improve performance with the information collected through the use of additional electrodes. However, a lack of robustness is ever present due to limited datasets and the difficulties in addressing sources of variability, such as electrode placement. In this study, we propose training on a collection of input channel subsets and augmenting our training distribution with data from different electrode locations, simultaneously targeting electrode shift and reducing input dimensionality. Our method increases robustness against electrode shift and results in significantly higher intersession performance across subjects and classification algorithms.
We propose two extensions to existing importance sampling based methods for lossy compression. First, we introduce an importance sampling based compression scheme that is a variant of ordered random coding (Theis and Ahmed, 2022) and is amenable to direct evaluation of the achievable compression rate for a finite number of samples. Our second and major contribution is the importance matching lemma, which is a finite proposal counterpart of the recently introduced Poisson matching lemma (Li and Anantharam, 2021). By integrating with deep learning, we provide a new coding scheme for distributed lossy compression with side information at the decoder. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through experiments involving synthetic Gaussian sources, distributed image compression with MNIST and vertical federated learning with CIFAR-10.
Kernel Stein discrepancies (KSDs) measure the quality of a distributional approximation and can be computed even when the target density has an intractable normalizing constant. Notable applications include the diagnosis of approximate MCMC samplers and goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized statistical models. The present work analyzes the convergence control properties of KSDs. We first show that standard KSDs used for weak convergence control fail to control moment convergence. To address this limitation, we next provide sufficient conditions under which alternative diffusion KSDs control both moment and weak convergence. As an immediate consequence we develop, for each $q > 0$, the first KSDs known to exactly characterize $q$-Wasserstein convergence.
Nonnegative tensor factorization (NTF) has become an important tool for feature extraction and part-based representation with preserved intrinsic structure information from nonnegative high-order data. However, the original NTF methods utilize Euclidean or Kullback-Leibler divergence as the loss function which treats each feature equally leading to the neglect of the side-information of features. To utilize correlation information of features and manifold information of samples, we introduce Wasserstein manifold nonnegative tensor factorization (WMNTF), which minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the distribution of input tensorial data and the distribution of reconstruction. Although some researches about Wasserstein distance have been proposed in nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), they ignore the spatial structure information of higher-order data. We use Wasserstein distance (a.k.a Earth Mover's distance or Optimal Transport distance) as a metric and add a graph regularizer to a latent factor. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with other NMF and NTF methods.
Autonomous vehicles ought to predict the surrounding agents' trajectories to allow safe maneuvers in uncertain and complex traffic situations. As companies increasingly apply trajectory prediction in the real world, security becomes a relevant concern. In this paper, we focus on backdoors - a security threat acknowledged in other fields but so far overlooked for trajectory prediction. To this end, we describe and investigate four triggers that could affect trajectory prediction. We then show that these triggers (for example, a braking vehicle), when correlated with a desired output (for example, a curve) during training, cause the desired output of a state-of-the-art trajectory prediction model. In other words, the model has good benign performance but is vulnerable to backdoors. This is the case even if the trigger maneuver is performed by a non-casual agent behind the target vehicle. As a side-effect, our analysis reveals interesting limitations within trajectory prediction models. Finally, we evaluate a range of defenses against backdoors. While some, like simple offroad checks, do not enable detection for all triggers, clustering is a promising candidate to support manual inspection to find backdoors.
Neural algorithmic reasoners are parallel processors. Teaching them sequential algorithms contradicts this nature, rendering a significant share of their computations redundant. Parallel algorithms however may exploit their full computational power, therefore requiring fewer layers to be executed. This drastically reduces training times, as we observe when comparing parallel implementations of searching, sorting and finding strongly connected components to their sequential counterparts on the CLRS framework. Additionally, parallel versions achieve (often strongly) superior predictive performance.
Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) aims to detect the emotion label for each utterance. Motivated by recent studies which have proven that feeding training examples in a meaningful order rather than considering them randomly can boost the performance of models, we propose an ERC-oriented hybrid curriculum learning framework. Our framework consists of two curricula: (1) conversation-level curriculum (CC); and (2) utterance-level curriculum (UC). In CC, we construct a difficulty measurer based on "emotion shift" frequency within a conversation, then the conversations are scheduled in an "easy to hard" schema according to the difficulty score returned by the difficulty measurer. For UC, it is implemented from an emotion-similarity perspective, which progressively strengthens the model's ability in identifying the confusing emotions. With the proposed model-agnostic hybrid curriculum learning strategy, we observe significant performance boosts over a wide range of existing ERC models and we are able to achieve new state-of-the-art results on four public ERC datasets.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Recently, a considerable literature has grown up around the theme of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). How to effectively leverage the rich structural information in complex graphs, such as knowledge graphs with heterogeneous types of entities and relations, is a primary open challenge in the field. Most GCN methods are either restricted to graphs with a homogeneous type of edges (e.g., citation links only), or focusing on representation learning for nodes only instead of jointly propagating and updating the embeddings of both nodes and edges for target-driven objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a novel framework, namely the Knowledge Embedding based Graph Convolutional Network (KE-GCN), which combines the power of GCNs in graph-based belief propagation and the strengths of advanced knowledge embedding (a.k.a. knowledge graph embedding) methods, and goes beyond. Our theoretical analysis shows that KE-GCN offers an elegant unification of several well-known GCN methods as specific cases, with a new perspective of graph convolution. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the advantageous performance of KE-GCN over strong baseline methods in the tasks of knowledge graph alignment and entity classification.
Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.
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