In this work we propose a heuristic clearing method of day-ahead electricity markets. In the first part of the process, a computationally less demanding problem is solved using an approximation of the cumulative demand and supply curves, which are derived via the aggregation of simple bids. Based on the outcome of this problem, estimated ranges for the clearing prices of individual periods are determined. In the final step, the clearing for the original bid set is solved, taking into account the price ranges determined previously as constraints. Adding such constraints reduces the feasibility region of the clearing problem. By removing simple bids whose acceptance or rejection is already determined by the assumed price range constraints, the size of the problem is also significantly reduced. Via simple examples, we show that due to the possible paradox rejection of block bids the proposed bid-aggregation based approach may result in a suboptimal solution or in an infeasible problem, but we also point out that these pitfalls of the algorithm may be avoided by using different aggregation patterns. We propose to construct multiple different aggregation patterns and to use parallel computing to enhance the performance of the algorithm. We test the proposed approach on setups of various problem sizes, and conclude that in the case of parallel computing with 4 threads a high success rate and a significant gain in computational speed may be achieved.
相關內容
In this study, we tackle a growing concern around the safety and ethical use of large language models (LLMs). Despite their potential, these models can be tricked into producing harmful or unethical content through various sophisticated methods, including 'jailbreaking' techniques and targeted manipulation. Our work zeroes in on a specific issue: to what extent LLMs can be led astray by asking them to generate responses that are instruction-centric such as a pseudocode, a program or a software snippet as opposed to vanilla text. To investigate this question, we introduce TechHazardQA, a dataset containing complex queries which should be answered in both text and instruction-centric formats (e.g., pseudocodes), aimed at identifying triggers for unethical responses. We query a series of LLMs -- Llama-2-13b, Llama-2-7b, Mistral-V2 and Mistral 8X7B -- and ask them to generate both text and instruction-centric responses. For evaluation we report the harmfulness score metric as well as judgements from GPT-4 and humans. Overall, we observe that asking LLMs to produce instruction-centric responses enhances the unethical response generation by ~2-38% across the models. As an additional objective, we investigate the impact of model editing using the ROME technique, which further increases the propensity for generating undesirable content. In particular, asking edited LLMs to generate instruction-centric responses further increases the unethical response generation by ~3-16% across the different models.
The exponential growth in scientific publications poses a severe challenge for human researchers. It forces attention to more narrow sub-fields, which makes it challenging to discover new impactful research ideas and collaborations outside one's own field. While there are ways to predict a scientific paper's future citation counts, they need the research to be finished and the paper written, usually assessing impact long after the idea was conceived. Here we show how to predict the impact of onsets of ideas that have never been published by researchers. For that, we developed a large evolving knowledge graph built from more than 21 million scientific papers. It combines a semantic network created from the content of the papers and an impact network created from the historic citations of papers. Using machine learning, we can predict the dynamic of the evolving network into the future with high accuracy, and thereby the impact of new research directions. We envision that the ability to predict the impact of new ideas will be a crucial component of future artificial muses that can inspire new impactful and interesting scientific ideas.
With the expansion of operational scale of supermarkets in China, the vegetable market has grown considerably. The decision-making related to procurement costs and allocation quantities of vegetables has become a pivotal factor in determining the profitability of supermarkets. This paper analyzes the relationship between pricing and allocation faced by supermarkets in vegetable operations. Optimization algorithms are employed to determine replenishment and pricing strategies. Linear regression is utilized to model the historical data of various products, establishing the relationship between sale prices and sales volumes for 61 products. By integrating historical data on vegetable costs with time information based on the 24 solar terms, a cost prediction model is trained using TCN-Attention. The Topis evaluation model identifies the 32 most market-demanded products. A genetic algorithm is then used to search for the globally optimized vegetable product allocation-pricing decision.
We consider arbitrary bounded discrete time series. From its statistical feature, without any use of the Fourier transform, we find an almost periodic function which suitably characterizes the corresponding time series.
This paper presents a method for thematic agreement assessment of geospatial data products of different semantics and spatial granularities, which may be affected by spatial offsets between test and reference data. The proposed method uses a multi-scale framework allowing for a probabilistic evaluation whether thematic disagreement between datasets is induced by spatial offsets due to different nature of the datasets or not. We test our method using real-estate derived settlement locations and remote-sensing derived building footprint data.
This paper investigates extremal quantiles under two-way cluster dependence. We demonstrate that the limiting distribution of the unconditional intermediate order quantiles in the tails converges to a Gaussian distribution. This is remarkable as two-way cluster dependence entails potential non-Gaussianity in general, but extremal quantiles do not suffer from this issue. Building upon this result, we extend our analysis to extremal quantile regressions of intermediate order.
We analyze call center data on properties such as agent heterogeneity, customer patience and breaks. Then we compare simulation models that are different in the ways these properties are modeled. We classify them according to the extend in which they approach the actual service level and average waiting times. We obtain a theoretical understanding on how to distinguish between the model error and other aspects such as random noise. We conclude that modeling explicitly breaks and agent heterogeneity is crucial for obtaining a precise model.
Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous proposals and may partly explain intuitions.
We propose methods to infer jumps of a semi-martingale, which describes long-term price dynamics based on discrete, noisy, high-frequency observations. Different to the classical model of additive, centered market microstructure noise, we consider one-sided microstructure noise for order prices in a limit order book. We develop methods to estimate, locate and test for jumps using local order statistics. We provide a local test and show that we can consistently estimate price jumps. The main contribution is a global test for jumps. We establish the asymptotic properties and optimality of this test. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a maximum statistic under the null hypothesis of no jumps based on extreme value theory. We prove consistency under the alternative hypothesis. The rate of convergence for local alternatives is determined and shown to be much faster than optimal rates for the standard market microstructure noise model. This allows the identification of smaller jumps. In the process, we establish uniform consistency for spot volatility estimation under one-sided microstructure noise. A simulation study sheds light on the finite-sample implementation and properties of our new statistics and draws a comparison to a popular method for market microstructure noise. We showcase how our new approach helps to improve jump detection in an empirical analysis of intra-daily limit order book data.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191