Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration error and refinement -- utilizing a Bregman divergence. While uncertainty calibration has gained significant attention, current literature lacks a general estimator for these quantities with known statistical properties. To address this gap, we propose a method that allows consistent, and asymptotically unbiased estimation of all proper calibration errors and refinement terms. In particular, we introduce Kullback--Leibler calibration error, induced by the commonly used cross-entropy loss. As part of our results, we prove the relation between refinement and f-divergences, which implies information monotonicity in neural networks, regardless of which proper scoring rule is optimized. Our experiments validate empirically the claimed properties of the proposed estimator and suggest that the selection of a post-hoc calibration method should be determined by the particular calibration error of interest.
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An important aspect in developing language models that interact with humans is aligning their behavior to be useful and unharmful for their human users. This is usually achieved by tuning the model in a way that enhances desired behaviors and inhibits undesired ones, a process referred to as alignment. In this paper, we propose a theoretical approach called Behavior Expectation Bounds (BEB) which allows us to formally investigate several inherent characteristics and limitations of alignment in large language models. Importantly, we prove that within the limits of this framework, for any behavior that has a finite probability of being exhibited by the model, there exist prompts that can trigger the model into outputting this behavior, with probability that increases with the length of the prompt. This implies that any alignment process that attenuates an undesired behavior but does not remove it altogether, is not safe against adversarial prompting attacks. Furthermore, our framework hints at the mechanism by which leading alignment approaches such as reinforcement learning from human feedback make the LLM prone to being prompted into the undesired behaviors. This theoretical result is being experimentally demonstrated in large scale by the so called contemporary "chatGPT jailbreaks", where adversarial users trick the LLM into breaking its alignment guardrails by triggering it into acting as a malicious persona. Our results expose fundamental limitations in alignment of LLMs and bring to the forefront the need to devise reliable mechanisms for ensuring AI safety.
In few-shot learning, such as meta-learning, few-shot fine-tuning or in-context learning, the limited number of samples used to train a model have a significant impact on the overall success. Although a large number of sample selection strategies exist, their impact on the performance of few-shot learning is not extensively known, as most of them have been so far evaluated in typical supervised settings only. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate the impact of 20 sample selection strategies on the performance of 5 few-shot learning approaches over 8 image and 6 text datasets. In addition, we propose a new method for automatic combination of sample selection strategies (ACSESS) that leverages the strengths and complementary information of the individual strategies. The experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the individual selection strategies, as well as the recently proposed method for selecting support examples for in-context learning. We also show a strong modality, dataset and approach dependence for the majority of strategies as well as their dependence on the number of shots - demonstrating that the sample selection strategies play a significant role for lower number of shots, but regresses to random selection at higher number of shots.
A better understanding of interactive pedestrian behavior in critical traffic situations is essential for the development of enhanced pedestrian safety systems. Real-world traffic observations play a decisive role in this, since they represent behavior in an unbiased way. In this work, we present an approach of how a subset of very considerable pedestrian-vehicle interactions can be derived from a camera-based observation system. For this purpose, we have examined road user trajectories automatically for establishing temporal and spatial relationships, using 110h hours of video recordings. In order to identify critical interactions, our approach combines the metric post-encroachment time with a newly introduced motion adaption metric. From more than 11,000 reconstructed pedestrian trajectories, 259 potential scenarios remained, using a post-encroachment time threshold of 2s. However, in 95% of cases, no adaptation of the pedestrian behavior was observed due to avoiding criticality. Applying the proposed motion adaption metric, only 21 critical scenarios remained. Manual investigations revealed that critical pedestrian vehicle interactions were present in 7 of those. They were further analyzed and made publicly available for developing pedestrian behavior models3. The results indicate that critical interactions in which the pedestrian perceives and reacts to the vehicle at a relatively late stage can be extracted using the proposed method.
Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) can be expressed as weighted pseudo-outcome regressions (PORs). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. For example, we point out that R-Learning implicitly performs a POR with inverse-variance weights (IVWs). In the CATE setting, IVWs mitigate the instability associated with inverse-propensity weights, and lead to convenient simplifications of bias terms. We demonstrate the superior performance of IVWs in simulations, and derive convergence rates for IVWs that are, to our knowledge, the fastest yet shown without assuming knowledge of the covariate distribution.
Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) nominals present many morphological and lexical modeling challenges that have not been consistently addressed previously. This paper attempts to define the space of such challenges, and leverage a recently proposed morphological framework to build a comprehensive and extensible model for MSA nominals. Our model design addresses the nominals' intricate morphotactics, as well as their paradigmatic irregularities. Our implementation showcases enhanced accuracy and consistency compared to a commonly used MSA morphological analyzer and generator. We make our models publicly available.
Hierarchical topic modeling aims to discover latent topics from a corpus and organize them into a hierarchy to understand documents with desirable semantic granularity. However, existing work struggles with producing topic hierarchies of low affinity, rationality, and diversity, which hampers document understanding. To overcome these challenges, we in this paper propose Transport Plan and Context-aware Hierarchical Topic Model (TraCo). Instead of early simple topic dependencies, we propose a transport plan dependency method. It constrains dependencies to ensure their sparsity and balance, and also regularizes topic hierarchy building with them. This improves affinity and diversity of hierarchies. We further propose a context-aware disentangled decoder. Rather than previously entangled decoding, it distributes different semantic granularity to topics at different levels by disentangled decoding. This facilitates the rationality of hierarchies. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art baselines, effectively improving the affinity, rationality, and diversity of hierarchical topic modeling with better performance on downstream tasks.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
We address the task of automatically scoring the competency of candidates based on textual features, from the automatic speech recognition (ASR) transcriptions in the asynchronous video job interview (AVI). The key challenge is how to construct the dependency relation between questions and answers, and conduct the semantic level interaction for each question-answer (QA) pair. However, most of the recent studies in AVI focus on how to represent questions and answers better, but ignore the dependency information and interaction between them, which is critical for QA evaluation. In this work, we propose a Hierarchical Reasoning Graph Neural Network (HRGNN) for the automatic assessment of question-answer pairs. Specifically, we construct a sentence-level relational graph neural network to capture the dependency information of sentences in or between the question and the answer. Based on these graphs, we employ a semantic-level reasoning graph attention network to model the interaction states of the current QA session. Finally, we propose a gated recurrent unit encoder to represent the temporal question-answer pairs for the final prediction. Empirical results conducted on CHNAT (a real-world dataset) validate that our proposed model significantly outperforms text-matching based benchmark models. Ablation studies and experimental results with 10 random seeds also show the effectiveness and stability of our models.
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