Submodular function maximization is a fundamental combinatorial optimization problem with plenty of applications -- including data summarization, influence maximization, and recommendation. In many of these problems, the goal is to find a solution that maximizes the average utility over all users, for each of whom the utility is defined by a monotone submodular function. However, when the population of users is composed of several demographic groups, another critical problem is whether the utility is fairly distributed across different groups. Although the \emph{utility} and \emph{fairness} objectives are both desirable, they might contradict each other, and, to the best of our knowledge, little attention has been paid to optimizing them jointly. In this paper, we propose a new problem called \emph{Bicriteria Submodular Maximization} (BSM) to strike a balance between utility and fairness. Specifically, it requires finding a fixed-size solution to maximize the utility function, subject to the value of the fairness function not being below a threshold. Since BSM is inapproximable within any constant factor in general, we turn our attention to designing instance-dependent approximation schemes. Our algorithmic proposal comprises two methods, with different approximation factors, obtained by converting a BSM instance into other submodular optimization problem instances. Using real-world and synthetic datasets, we showcase applications of our methods in three submodular maximization problems: maximum coverage, influence maximization, and facility location.
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Whether or not stocks are predictable has been a topic of concern for decades.The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that it is difficult for investors to make extra profits by predicting stock prices, but this may not be true, especially for the Chinese stock market. Therefore, we explore the predictability of the Chinese stock market based on tick data, a widely studied high-frequency data. We obtain the predictability of 3, 834 Chinese stocks by adopting the concept of true entropy, which is calculated by Limpel-Ziv data compression method. The Markov chain model and the diffusion kernel model are used to compare the upper bounds on predictability, and it is concluded that there is still a significant performance gap between the forecasting models used and the theoretical upper bounds.Our work shows that more than 73% of stocks have prediction accuracy greater than 70% and RMSE less than 2 CNY under different quantification intervals with different models. We further take Spearman's correlation to reveal that the average stock price and price volatility may have a negative impact on prediction accuracy, which may be helpful for stock investors.
Wasserstein distance (WD) and the associated optimal transport plan have been proven useful in many applications where probability measures are at stake. In this paper, we propose a new proxy of the squared WD, coined min-SWGG, that is based on the transport map induced by an optimal one-dimensional projection of the two input distributions. We draw connections between min-SWGG and Wasserstein generalized geodesics in which the pivot measure is supported on a line. We notably provide a new closed form for the exact Wasserstein distance in the particular case of one of the distributions supported on a line allowing us to derive a fast computational scheme that is amenable to gradient descent optimization. We show that min-SWGG is an upper bound of WD and that it has a complexity similar to as Sliced-Wasserstein, with the additional feature of providing an associated transport plan. We also investigate some theoretical properties such as metricity, weak convergence, computational and topological properties. Empirical evidences support the benefits of min-SWGG in various contexts, from gradient flows, shape matching and image colorization, among others.
The concern about underlying discrimination hidden in ML models is increasing, as ML systems have been widely applied in more and more real-world scenarios and any discrimination hidden in them will directly affect human life. Many techniques have been developed to enhance fairness including commonly-used group fairness measures and several fairness-aware methods combining ensemble learning. However, existing fairness measures can only focus on one aspect -- either group or individual fairness, and the hard compatibility among them indicates a possibility of remaining biases even if one of them is satisfied. Moreover, existing mechanisms to boost fairness usually present empirical results to show validity, yet few of them discuss whether fairness can be boosted with certain theoretical guarantees. To address these issues, we propose a fairness quality measure named discriminative risk in this paper to reflect both individual and group fairness aspects. Furthermore, we investigate the properties of the proposed measure and propose first- and second-order oracle bounds to show that fairness can be boosted via ensemble combination with theoretical learning guarantees. Note that the analysis is suitable for both binary and multi-class classification. A pruning method is also proposed to utilise our proposed measure and comprehensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in this paper.
Regression analysis based on many covariates is becoming increasingly common. However, when the number of covariates $p$ is of the same order as the number of observations $n$, statistical protocols like maximum likelihood estimation of regression and nuisance parameters become unreliable due to overfitting. Overfitting typically leads to systematic estimation biases, and to increased estimator variances. It is crucial to be able to correctly quantify these effects, for inference and prediction purposes. In literature, several methods have been proposed to overcome overfitting bias or adjust estimates. The vast majority of these focus on the regression parameters only, either via empirical regularization methods or by expansion for small ratios $p/n$. This failure to correctly estimate also the nuisance parameters may lead to significant errors in outcome predictions. In this paper we use the leave one out method to derive the compact set of non-linear equations for the overfitting biases of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators in parametric regression models, as obtained previously using the replica method. We show that these equations enable one to correct regression and nuisance parameter estimators, and make them asymptotically unbiased. To illustrate the theory we performed simulation studies for multiple regression models. In all cases we find excellent agreement between theory and simulations.
We propose a simple approach for weighting self-connecting edges in a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and show its impact on depression detection from transcribed clinical interviews. To this end, we use a GCN for modeling non-consecutive and long-distance semantics to classify the transcriptions into depressed or control subjects. The proposed method aims to mitigate the limiting assumptions of locality and the equal importance of self-connections vs. edges to neighboring nodes in GCNs, while preserving attractive features such as low computational cost, data agnostic, and interpretability capabilities. We perform an exhaustive evaluation in two benchmark datasets. Results show that our approach consistently outperforms the vanilla GCN model as well as previously reported results, achieving an F1=0.84% on both datasets. Finally, a qualitative analysis illustrates the interpretability capabilities of the proposed approach and its alignment with previous findings in psychology.
The volume function V(t) of a compact set S\in R^d is just the Lebesgue measure of the set of points within a distance to S not larger than t. According to some classical results in geometric measure theory, the volume function turns out to be a polynomial, at least in a finite interval, under a quite intuitive, easy to interpret, sufficient condition (called ``positive reach'') which can be seen as an extension of the notion of convexity. However, many other simple sets, not fulfilling the positive reach condition, have also a polynomial volume function. To our knowledge, there is no general, simple geometric description of such sets. Still, the polynomial character of $V(t)$ has some relevant consequences since the polynomial coefficients carry some useful geometric information. In particular, the constant term is the volume of S and the first order coefficient is the boundary measure (in Minkowski's sense). This paper is focused on sets whose volume function is polynomial on some interval starting at zero, whose length (that we call ``polynomial reach'') might be unknown. Our main goal is to approximate such polynomial reach by statistical means, using only a large enough random sample of points inside S. The practical motivation is simple: when the value of the polynomial reach , or rather a lower bound for it, is approximately known, the polynomial coefficients can be estimated from the sample points by using standard methods in polynomial approximation. As a result, we get a quite general method to estimate the volume and boundary measure of the set, relying only on an inner sample of points and not requiring the use any smoothing parameter. This paper explores the theoretical and practical aspects of this idea.
Machine learning risks reinforcing biases present in data, and, as we argue in this work, in what is absent from data. In healthcare, biases have marked medical history, leading to unequal care affecting marginalised groups. Patterns in missing data often reflect these group discrepancies, but the algorithmic fairness implications of group-specific missingness are not well understood. Despite its potential impact, imputation is often an overlooked preprocessing step, with attention placed on the reduction of reconstruction error and overall performance, ignoring how imputation can affect groups differently. Our work studies how imputation choices affect reconstruction errors across groups and algorithmic fairness properties of downstream predictions.
We provide a comprehensive characterisation of the theoretical properties of the divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo (DaC-SMC) algorithm. We firmly establish it as a well-founded method by showing that it possesses the same basic properties as conventional sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms do. In particular, we derive pertinent laws of large numbers, $L^p$ inequalities, and central limit theorems; and we characterize the bias in the normalized estimates produced by the algorithm and argue the absence thereof in the unnormalized ones. We further consider its practical implementation and several interesting variants; obtain expressions for its globally and locally optimal intermediate targets, auxiliary measures, and proposal kernels; and show that, in comparable conditions, DaC-SMC proves more statistically efficient than its direct SMC analogue. We close the paper with a discussion of our results, open questions, and future research directions.
The cutting plane method is a key technique for successful branch-and-cut and branch-price-and-cut algorithms that find the exact optimal solutions for various vehicle routing problems (VRPs). Among various cuts, the rounded capacity inequalities (RCIs) are the most fundamental. To generate RCIs, we need to solve the separation problem, whose exact solution takes a long time to obtain; therefore, heuristic methods are widely used. We design a learning-based separation heuristic algorithm with graph coarsening that learns the solutions of the exact separation problem with a graph neural network (GNN), which is trained with small instances of 50 to 100 customers. We embed our separation algorithm within the cutting plane method to find a lower bound for the capacitated VRP (CVRP) with up to 1,000 customers. We compare the performance of our approach with CVRPSEP, a popular separation software package for various cuts used in solving VRPs. Our computational results show that our approach finds better lower bounds than CVRPSEP for large-scale problems with 400 or more customers, while CVRPSEP shows strong competency for problems with less than 400 customers.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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