We consider the problem of sampling a high dimensional multimodal target probability measure. We assume that a good proposal kernel to move only a subset of the degrees of freedoms (also known as collective variables) is known a priori. This proposal kernel can for example be built using normalizing flows. We show how to extend the move from the collective variable space to the full space and how to implement an accept-reject step in order to get a reversible chain with respect to a target probability measure. The accept-reject step does not require to know the marginal of the original measure in the collective variable (namely to know the free energy). The obtained algorithm admits several variants, some of them being very close to methods which have been proposed previously in the literature. We show how the obtained acceptance ratio can be expressed in terms of the work which appears in the Jarzynski-Crooks equality, at least for some variants. Numerical illustrations demonstrate the efficiency of the approach on various simple test cases, and allow us to compare the variants of the algorithm.
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We consider the problem of approximating an unknown function in a nonlinear model class from point evaluations. When obtaining these point evaluations is costly, minimising the required sample size becomes crucial. Recently, an increasing focus has been on employing adaptive sampling strategies to achieve this. These strategies are based on linear spaces related to the nonlinear model class, for which the optimal sampling measures are known. However, the resulting optimal sampling measures depend on an orthonormal basis of the linear space, which is known rarely. Consequently, sampling from these measures is challenging in practice. This manuscript presents a sampling strategy that iteratively refines an estimate of the optimal sampling measure by updating it based on previously drawn samples. This strategy can be performed offline and does not require evaluations of the sought function. We establish convergence and illustrate the practical performance through numerical experiments. Comparing the presented approach with standard Monte Carlo sampling demonstrates a significant reduction in the number of samples required to achieve a good estimation of an orthonormal basis.
Error control by means of a posteriori error estimators or indica-tors and adaptive discretizations, such as adaptive mesh refinement, have emerged in the late seventies. Since then, numerous theoretical developments and improvements have been made, as well as the first attempts to introduce them into real-life industrial applications. The present introductory chapter provides an overview of the subject, highlights some of the achievements to date and discusses possible perspectives.
We propose a Clifford noise reduction (CliNR) scheme that provides a reduction of the logical error rate of Clifford circuit with lower overhead than error correction and without the exponential sampling overhead of error mitigation. CliNR implements Clifford circuits by splitting them into sub-circuits that are performed using gate teleportation. A few random stabilizer measurements are used to detect errors in the resources states consumed by the gate teleportation. This can be seen as a teleported version of the CPC scheme, with offline fault-detection making it scalable. We prove that CliNR achieves a vanishing logical error rate for families of $n$-qubit Clifford circuits with size $s$ such that $nsp^2$ goes to 0, where $p$ is the physical error rate, meaning that it reaches the regime $ns = o(1/p^2)$ whereas the direct implementation is limited to $s = o(1/p)$. Moreover, CliNR uses only $3n+1$ qubits, $2s + o(s)$ gates and has zero rejection rate. This small overhead makes it more practical than quantum error correction in the near term and our numerical simulations show that CliNR provides a reduction of the logical error rate in relevant noise regimes.
Shape-restricted inferences have exhibited empirical success in various applications with survival data. However, certain works fall short in providing a rigorous theoretical justification and an easy-to-use variance estimator with theoretical guarantee. Motivated by Deng et al. (2023), this paper delves into an additive and shape-restricted partially linear Cox model for right-censored data, where each additive component satisfies a specific shape restriction, encompassing monotonic increasing/decreasing and convexity/concavity. We systematically investigate the consistencies and convergence rates of the shape-restricted maximum partial likelihood estimator (SMPLE) of all the underlying parameters. We further establish the aymptotic normality and semiparametric effiency of the SMPLE for the linear covariate shift. To estimate the asymptotic variance, we propose an innovative data-splitting variance estimation method that boasts exceptional versatility and broad applicability. Our simulation results and an analysis of the Rotterdam Breast Cancer dataset demonstrate that the SMPLE has comparable performance with the maximum likelihood estimator under the Cox model when the Cox model is correct, and outperforms the latter and Huang (1999)'s method when the Cox model is violated or the hazard is nonsmooth. Meanwhile, the proposed variance estimation method usually leads to reliable interval estimates based on the SMPLE and its competitors.
This paper leans on two similar areas so far detached from each other. On the one hand, Dung's pioneering contributions to abstract argumentation, almost thirty years ago, gave rise to a plethora of successors, including abstract dialectical frameworks (ADFs). On the other hand, Boolean networks (BNs), devised as models of gene regulation, have been successful for studying the behavior of molecular processes within cells. ADFs and BNs are similar to each other: both can be viewed as functions from vectors of bits to vectors of bits. As soon as similarities emerge between these two formalisms, however, differences appear. For example, conflict-freedom is prominent in argumentation (where we are interested in a self-consistent, i.e., conflict-free, set of beliefs) but absent in BNs. By contrast, asynchrony (where only one gene is updated at a time) is conspicuous in BNs and lacking in argumentation. Finally, while a monotonicity-based notion occurs in signed reasoning of both argumentation and gene regulation, a different, derivative-based notion only appears in the BN literature. To identify common mathematical structure between both formalisms, these differences need clarification. This contribution is a partial review of both these areas, where we cover enough ground to exhibit their more evident similarities, to then reconcile some of their apparent differences. We highlight a range of avenues of research resulting from ironing out discrepancies between these two fields. Unveiling their common concerns should enable these two areas to cross-fertilize so as to transfer ideas and results between each other.
Urban congestion remains a critical challenge, with traffic signal control (TSC) emerging as a potent solution. TSC is often modeled as a Markov Decision Process problem and then solved using reinforcement learning (RL), which has proven effective. However, the existing RL-based TSC system often overlooks imperfect observations caused by degraded communication, such as packet loss, delays, and noise, as well as rare real-life events not included in the reward function, such as unconsidered emergency vehicles. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel integration framework that combines a large language model (LLM) with RL. This framework is designed to manage overlooked elements in the reward function and gaps in state information, thereby enhancing the policies of RL agents. In our approach, RL initially makes decisions based on observed data. Subsequently, LLMs evaluate these decisions to verify their reasonableness. If a decision is found to be unreasonable, it is adjusted accordingly. Additionally, this integration approach can be seamlessly integrated with existing RL-based TSC systems without necessitating modifications. Extensive testing confirms that our approach reduces the average waiting time by $17.5\%$ in degraded communication conditions as compared to traditional RL methods, underscoring its potential to advance practical RL applications in intelligent transportation systems. The related code can be found at \url{//github.com/Traffic-Alpha/iLLM-TSC}.
Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a fundamental yet challenging task. Invariant causal prediction (ICP, Peters et al., 2016) is a method for causal feature selection which requires data from heterogeneous settings and exploits that causal models are invariant. ICP has been extended to general additive noise models and to nonparametric settings using conditional independence tests. However, the latter often suffer from low power (or poor type I error control) and additive noise models are not suitable for applications in which the response is not measured on a continuous scale, but reflects categories or counts. Here, we develop transformation-model (TRAM) based ICP, allowing for continuous, categorical, count-type, and uninformatively censored responses (these model classes, generally, do not allow for identifiability when there is no exogenous heterogeneity). As an invariance test, we propose TRAM-GCM based on the expected conditional covariance between environments and score residuals with uniform asymptotic level guarantees. For the special case of linear shift TRAMs, we also consider TRAM-Wald, which tests invariance based on the Wald statistic. We provide an open-source R package 'tramicp' and evaluate our approach on simulated data and in a case study investigating causal features of survival in critically ill patients.
We discuss a connection between a generative model, called the diffusion model, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics for the Fokker-Planck equation, called stochastic thermodynamics. Based on the techniques of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models, which is a trade-off relationship between the speed and accuracy of data generation in diffusion models. Our result implies that the entropy production rate in the forward process affects the errors in data generation. From a stochastic thermodynamic perspective, our results provide quantitative insight into how best to generate data in diffusion models. The optimal learning protocol is introduced by the conservative force in stochastic thermodynamics and the geodesic of space by the 2-Wasserstein distance in optimal transport theory. We numerically illustrate the validity of the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models with different noise schedules such as the cosine schedule, the conditional optimal transport, and the optimal transport.
We discuss a connection between a generative model, called the diffusion model, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics for the Fokker-Planck equation, called stochastic thermodynamics. Based on the techniques of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models, which is a trade-off relationship between the speed and accuracy of data generation in diffusion models. Our result implies that the entropy production rate in the forward process affects the errors in data generation. From a stochastic thermodynamic perspective, our results provide quantitative insight into how best to generate data in diffusion models. The optimal learning protocol is introduced by the conservative force in stochastic thermodynamics and the geodesic of space by the 2-Wasserstein distance in optimal transport theory. We numerically illustrate the validity of the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models with different noise schedules such as the cosine schedule, the conditional optimal transport, and the optimal transport.
This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: //github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents
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