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Accurately modeling the correlation structure of errors is essential for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic time series forecasting. Recent deep learning models for multivariate time series have developed efficient parameterizations for time-varying contemporaneous covariance, but they often assume temporal independence of errors for simplicity. However, real-world data frequently exhibit significant error autocorrelation and cross-lag correlation due to factors such as missing covariates. In this paper, we present a plug-and-play method that learns the covariance structure of errors over multiple steps for autoregressive models with Gaussian-distributed errors. To achieve scalable inference and computational efficiency, we model the contemporaneous covariance using a low-rank-plus-diagonal parameterization and characterize cross-covariance through a group of independent latent temporal processes. The learned covariance matrix can be used to calibrate predictions based on observed residuals. We evaluate our method on probabilistic models built on RNN and Transformer architectures, and the results confirm the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification without significantly increasing the parameter size.

Predictions of global climate models typically operate on coarse spatial scales due to the large computational costs of climate simulations. This has led to a considerable interest in methods for statistical downscaling, a similar process to super-resolution in the computer vision context, to provide more local and regional climate information. In this work, we apply conditional normalizing flows to the task of climate variable downscaling. We showcase its successful performance on an ERA5 water content dataset for different upsampling factors. Additionally, we show that the method allows us to assess the predictive uncertainty in terms of standard deviation from the fitted conditional distribution mean.

Collaborative graph analysis across multiple institutions is becoming increasingly popular. Realistic examples include social network analysis across various social platforms, financial transaction analysis across multiple banks, and analyzing the transmission of infectious diseases across multiple hospitals. We define the federated graph analytics, a new problem for collaborative graph analytics under differential privacy. Although differentially private graph analysis has been widely studied, it fails to achieve a good tradeoff between utility and privacy in federated scenarios, due to the limited view of local clients and overlapping information across multiple subgraphs. Motivated by this, we first propose a federated graph analytic framework, named FEAT, which enables arbitrary downstream common graph statistics while preserving individual privacy. Furthermore, we introduce an optimized framework based on our proposed degree-based partition algorithm, called FEAT+, which improves the overall utility by leveraging the true local subgraphs. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate that our FEAT and FEAT+ significantly outperform the baseline approach by approximately one and four orders of magnitude, respectively.

We introduce a novel neural network-based algorithm to compute optimal transport (OT) plans for general cost functionals. In contrast to common Euclidean costs, i.e., $\ell^1$ or $\ell^2$, such functionals provide more flexibility and allow using auxiliary information, such as class labels, to construct the required transport map. Existing methods for general costs are discrete and have limitations in practice, i.e. they do not provide an out-of-sample estimation. We address the challenge of designing a continuous OT approach for general costs that generalizes to new data points in high-dimensional spaces, such as images. Additionally, we provide the theoretical error analysis for our recovered transport plans. As an application, we construct a cost functional to map data distributions while preserving the class-wise structure.

Label noise, commonly found in real-world datasets, has a detrimental impact on a model's generalization. To effectively detect incorrectly labeled instances, previous works have mostly relied on distinguishable training signals, such as training loss, as indicators to differentiate between clean and noisy labels. However, they have limitations in that the training signals incompletely reveal the model's behavior and are not effectively generalized to various noise types, resulting in limited detection accuracy. In this paper, we propose DynaCor framework that distinguishes incorrectly labeled instances from correctly labeled ones based on the dynamics of the training signals. To cope with the absence of supervision for clean and noisy labels, DynaCor first introduces a label corruption strategy that augments the original dataset with intentionally corrupted labels, enabling indirect simulation of the model's behavior on noisy labels. Then, DynaCor learns to identify clean and noisy instances by inducing two clearly distinguishable clusters from the latent representations of training dynamics. Our comprehensive experiments show that DynaCor outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors and shows strong robustness to various noise types and noise rates.

In contrast to the incremental classification task, the incremental detection task is characterized by the presence of data ambiguity, as an image may have differently labeled bounding boxes across multiple continuous learning stages. This phenomenon often impairs the model's ability to effectively learn new classes. However, existing research has paid less attention to the forward compatibility of the model, which limits its suitability for incremental learning. To overcome this obstacle, we propose leveraging a visual-language model such as CLIP to generate text feature embeddings for different class sets, which enhances the feature space globally. We then employ super-classes to replace the unavailable novel classes in the early learning stage to simulate the incremental scenario. Finally, we utilize the CLIP image encoder to accurately identify potential objects. We incorporate the finely recognized detection boxes as pseudo-annotations into the training process, thereby further improving the detection performance. We evaluate our approach on various incremental learning settings using the PASCAL VOC 2007 dataset, and our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly for recognizing the new classes.

Triple extraction is an essential task in information extraction for natural language processing and knowledge graph construction. In this paper, we revisit the end-to-end triple extraction task for sequence generation. Since generative triple extraction may struggle to capture long-term dependencies and generate unfaithful triples, we introduce a novel model, contrastive triple extraction with a generative transformer. Specifically, we introduce a single shared transformer module for encoder-decoder-based generation. To generate faithful results, we propose a novel triplet contrastive training object. Moreover, we introduce two mechanisms to further improve model performance (i.e., batch-wise dynamic attention-masking and triple-wise calibration). Experimental results on three datasets (i.e., NYT, WebNLG, and MIE) show that our approach achieves better performance than that of baselines.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have revolutionized the field of graph representation learning through effectively learned node embeddings, and achieved state-of-the-art results in tasks such as node classification and link prediction. However, current GNN methods are inherently flat and do not learn hierarchical representations of graphs---a limitation that is especially problematic for the task of graph classification, where the goal is to predict the label associated with an entire graph. Here we propose DiffPool, a differentiable graph pooling module that can generate hierarchical representations of graphs and can be combined with various graph neural network architectures in an end-to-end fashion. DiffPool learns a differentiable soft cluster assignment for nodes at each layer of a deep GNN, mapping nodes to a set of clusters, which then form the coarsened input for the next GNN layer. Our experimental results show that combining existing GNN methods with DiffPool yields an average improvement of 5-10% accuracy on graph classification benchmarks, compared to all existing pooling approaches, achieving a new state-of-the-art on four out of five benchmark data sets.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.