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Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.

In this note we give proofs for results relating to the Instrumental Variable (IV) model with binary response $Y$ and binary treatment $X$, but with an instrument $Z$ that takes $K$ states that were originally stated in Richardson & Robins (2014), "ACE Bounds; SEMS with Equilibrium Conditions," arXiv:1410.0470.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of deciding whether two standard normal random vectors $\mathsf{X}\in\mathbb{R}^{n}$ and $\mathsf{Y}\in\mathbb{R}^{n}$ are correlated or not. This is formulated as a hypothesis testing problem, where under the null hypothesis, these vectors are statistically independent, while under the alternative, $\mathsf{X}$ and a randomly and uniformly permuted version of $\mathsf{Y}$, are correlated with correlation $\rho$. We analyze the thresholds at which optimal testing is information-theoretically impossible and possible, as a function of $n$ and $\rho$. To derive our information-theoretic lower bounds, we develop a novel technique for evaluating the second moment of the likelihood ratio using an orthogonal polynomials expansion, which among other things, reveals a surprising connection to integer partition functions. We also study a multi-dimensional generalization of the above setting, where rather than two vectors we observe two databases/matrices, and furthermore allow for partial correlations between these two.

We provide a framework to analyze the convergence of discretized kinetic Langevin dynamics for $M$-$\nabla$Lipschitz, $m$-convex potentials. Our approach gives convergence rates of $\mathcal{O}(m/M)$, with explicit stepsize restrictions, which are of the same order as the stability threshold for Gaussian targets and are valid for a large interval of the friction parameter. We apply this methodology to various integration schemes which are popular in the molecular dynamics and machine learning communities. Finally, we introduce the property "$\gamma$-limit convergent" (GLC) to characterize underdamped Langevin schemes that converge to overdamped dynamics in the high-friction limit and which have stepsize restrictions that are independent of the friction parameter; we show that this property is not generic by exhibiting methods from both the class and its complement. We further provide asymptotic bias estimates for the BAOAB scheme, which remain accurate in the high-friction limit by comparison to a modified stochastic dynamics which preserves the invariant measure.

We propose policy gradient algorithms for robust infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with non-rectangular uncertainty sets, thereby addressing an open challenge in the robust MDP literature. Indeed, uncertainty sets that display statistical optimality properties and make optimal use of limited data often fail to be rectangular. Unfortunately, the corresponding robust MDPs cannot be solved with dynamic programming techniques and are in fact provably intractable. We first present a randomized projected Langevin dynamics algorithm that solves the robust policy evaluation problem to global optimality but is inefficient. We also propose a deterministic policy gradient method that is efficient but solves the robust policy evaluation problem only approximately, and we prove that the approximation error scales with a new measure of non-rectangularity of the uncertainty set. Finally, we describe an actor-critic algorithm that finds an $\epsilon$-optimal solution for the robust policy improvement problem in $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^4)$ iterations. We thus present the first complete solution scheme for robust MDPs with non-rectangular uncertainty sets offering global optimality guarantees. Numerical experiments show that our algorithms compare favorably against state-of-the-art methods.

We explore the fairness of a redistricting game introduced by Mixon and Villar, which provides a two-party protocol for dividing a state into electoral districts, without the participation of an independent authority. We analyze the game in an abstract setting that ignores the geographic distribution of voters and assumes that voter preferences are fixed and known. We show that the minority player can always win at least $p-1$ districts, where $p$ is proportional to the percentage of minority voters. We give an upper bound on the number of districts won by the minority based on a "cracking" strategy for the majority.

The Skolem problem is a long-standing open problem in linear dynamical systems: can a linear recurrence sequence (LRS) ever reach 0 from a given initial configuration? Similarly, the positivity problem asks whether the LRS stays positive from an initial configuration. Deciding Skolem (or positivity) has been open for half a century: the best known decidability results are for LRS with special properties (e.g., low order recurrences). But these problems are easier for "uninitialized" variants, where the initial configuration is not fixed but can vary arbitrarily: checking if there is an initial configuration from which the LRS stays positive can be decided in polynomial time (Tiwari in 2004, Braverman in 2006). In this paper, we consider problems that lie between the initialized and uninitialized variant. More precisely, we ask if 0 (resp. negative numbers) can be avoided from every initial configuration in a neighborhood of a given initial configuration. This can be considered as a robust variant of the Skolem (resp. positivity) problem. We show that these problems lie at the frontier of decidability: if the neighbourhood is given as part of the input, then robust Skolem and robust positivity are Diophantine hard, i.e., solving either would entail major breakthrough in Diophantine approximations, as happens for (non-robust) positivity. However, if one asks whether such a neighbourhood exists, then the problems turn out to be decidable with PSPACE complexity. Our techniques also allow us to tackle robustness for ultimate positivity, which asks whether there is a bound on the number of steps after which the LRS remains positive. There are two variants depending on whether we ask for a "uniform" bound on this number of steps. For the non-uniform variant, when the neighbourhood is open, the problem turns out to be tractable, even when the neighbourhood is given as input.

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.