The main focus of this paper is to approximate time series data based on the closed-loop Volterra series representation. Volterra series expansions are a valuable tool for representing, analyzing, and synthesizing nonlinear dynamical systems. However, a major limitation of this approach is that as the order of the expansion increases, the number of terms that need to be estimated grows exponentially, posing a considerable challenge. This paper considers a practical solution for estimating the closed-loop Volterra series in stationary nonlinear time series using the concepts of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) and polynomial kernels. We illustrate the applicability of the suggested Volterra representation by means of simulations and real data analysis. Furthermore, we apply the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Predictive Accuracy (KSPA) test, to determine whether there exists a statistically significant difference between the distribution of estimated errors for concurring time series models, and secondly to determine whether the estimated time series with the lower error based on some loss function also has exhibits a stochastically smaller error than estimated time series from a competing method. The obtained results indicate that the closed-loop Volterra method can outperform the ARFIMA, ETS, and Ridge regression methods in terms of both smaller error and increased interpretability.
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We present a finite blocklength performance bound for a DNA storage channel with insertions, deletions, and substitutions. The considered bound -- the dependency testing (DT) bound, introduced by Polyanskiy et al. in 2010 -- provides an upper bound on the achievable frame error probability and can be used to benchmark coding schemes in the practical short-to-medium blocklength regime. In particular, we consider a concatenated coding scheme where an inner synchronization code deals with insertions and deletions and the outer code corrects remaining (mostly substitution) errors. The bound depends on the inner synchronization code. Thus, it allows to guide its choice. We then consider low-density parity-check codes for the outer code, which we optimize based on extrinsic information transfer charts. Our optimized coding schemes achieve a normalized rate of $88\%$ to $96\%$ with respect to the DT bound for code lengths up to $2000$ DNA symbols for a frame error probability of $10^{-3}$ and code rate 1/2.
We introduce a new network centrality measure founded on the Gately value for cooperative games with transferable utilities. A directed network is interpreted as representing control or authority relations between players--constituting a hierarchical network. The power distribution of a hierarchical network can be represented through a TU-game. We investigate the properties of this TU-representation and investigate the Gately value of the TU-representation resulting in the Gately power measure. We establish when the Gately measure is a Core power gauge, investigate the relationship of the Gately with the $\beta$-measure, and construct an axiomatisation of the Gately measure.
To understand the ability and limitations of convolutional neural networks to generate time series that mimic complex temporal signals, we trained a generative adversarial network consisting of deep convolutional networks to generate chaotic time series and used nonlinear time series analysis to evaluate the generated time series. A numerical measure of determinism and the Lyapunov exponent, a measure of trajectory instability, showed that the generated time series well reproduce the chaotic properties of the original time series. However, error distribution analyses showed that large errors appeared at a low but non-negligible rate. Such errors would not be expected if the distribution were assumed to be exponential.
Recently, significant advancements have been made in time-series forecasting research, with an increasing focus on analyzing the nature of time-series data, e.g, channel-independence (CI) and channel-dependence (CD), rather than solely focusing on designing sophisticated forecasting models. However, current research has primarily focused on either CI or CD in isolation, and the challenge of effectively combining these two opposing properties to achieve a synergistic effect remains an unresolved issue. In this paper, we carefully examine the opposing properties of CI and CD, and raise a practical question that has not been effectively answered, e.g.,"How to effectively mix the CI and CD properties of time series to achieve better predictive performance?" To answer this question, we propose Mlinear (MIX-Linear), a simple yet effective method based mainly on linear layers. The design philosophy of Mlinear mainly includes two aspects:(1) dynamically tuning the CI and CD properties based on the time semantics of different input time series, and (2) providing deep supervision to adjust the individual performance of the "CI predictor" and "CD predictor". In addition, empirically, we introduce a new loss function that significantly outperforms the widely used mean squared error (MSE) on multiple datasets. Experiments on time-series datasets covering multiple fields and widely used have demonstrated the superiority of our method over PatchTST which is the lateset Transformer-based method in terms of the MSE and MAE metrics on 7 datasets with identical sequence inputs (336 or 512). Specifically, our method significantly outperforms PatchTST with a ratio of 21:3 at 336 sequence length input and 29:10 at 512 sequence length input. Additionally, our approach has a 10 $\times$ efficiency advantage at the unit level, taking into account both training and inference times.
Dragonfly is scheduled to begin exploring Titan by 2034 using a series of multi-kilometer surface flights. This paper outlines the preliminary design of the navigation filter for the Dragonfly Mobility subsystem. The software architecture and filter formulation for lidar, visual odometry, pressure sensors, and redundant IMUs are described in detail. Special discussion is given to developments to achieve multi-kilometer surface flights, including optimizing sequential image baselines, modeling correlating image processing errors, and an efficient approximation to the Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) problem.
In this paper, we propose a differentiable version of the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) that allows for gradient-based optimization of the hop length or the frame temporal position by making these parameters continuous. Our approach provides improved control over the temporal positioning of frames, as the continuous nature of the hop length allows for a more finely-tuned optimization. Furthermore, our contribution enables the use of optimization methods such as gradient descent, which are more computationally efficient than conventional discrete optimization methods. Our differentiable STFT can also be easily integrated into existing algorithms and neural networks. We present a simulated illustration to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach and to garner interest from the research community.
In this paper, we focus on the self-supervised learning of visual correspondence using unlabeled videos in the wild. Our method simultaneously considers intra- and inter-video representation associations for reliable correspondence estimation. The intra-video learning transforms the image contents across frames within a single video via the frame pair-wise affinity. To obtain the discriminative representation for instance-level separation, we go beyond the intra-video analysis and construct the inter-video affinity to facilitate the contrastive transformation across different videos. By forcing the transformation consistency between intra- and inter-video levels, the fine-grained correspondence associations are well preserved and the instance-level feature discrimination is effectively reinforced. Our simple framework outperforms the recent self-supervised correspondence methods on a range of visual tasks including video object tracking (VOT), video object segmentation (VOS), pose keypoint tracking, etc. It is worth mentioning that our method also surpasses the fully-supervised affinity representation (e.g., ResNet) and performs competitively against the recent fully-supervised algorithms designed for the specific tasks (e.g., VOT and VOS).
Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.
This work addresses a novel and challenging problem of estimating the full 3D hand shape and pose from a single RGB image. Most current methods in 3D hand analysis from monocular RGB images only focus on estimating the 3D locations of hand keypoints, which cannot fully express the 3D shape of hand. In contrast, we propose a Graph Convolutional Neural Network (Graph CNN) based method to reconstruct a full 3D mesh of hand surface that contains richer information of both 3D hand shape and pose. To train networks with full supervision, we create a large-scale synthetic dataset containing both ground truth 3D meshes and 3D poses. When fine-tuning the networks on real-world datasets without 3D ground truth, we propose a weakly-supervised approach by leveraging the depth map as a weak supervision in training. Through extensive evaluations on our proposed new datasets and two public datasets, we show that our proposed method can produce accurate and reasonable 3D hand mesh, and can achieve superior 3D hand pose estimation accuracy when compared with state-of-the-art methods.
Nowadays, the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have achieved impressive performance on many computer vision related tasks, such as object detection, image recognition, image retrieval, etc. These achievements benefit from the CNNs outstanding capability to learn the input features with deep layers of neuron structures and iterative training process. However, these learned features are hard to identify and interpret from a human vision perspective, causing a lack of understanding of the CNNs internal working mechanism. To improve the CNN interpretability, the CNN visualization is well utilized as a qualitative analysis method, which translates the internal features into visually perceptible patterns. And many CNN visualization works have been proposed in the literature to interpret the CNN in perspectives of network structure, operation, and semantic concept. In this paper, we expect to provide a comprehensive survey of several representative CNN visualization methods, including Activation Maximization, Network Inversion, Deconvolutional Neural Networks (DeconvNet), and Network Dissection based visualization. These methods are presented in terms of motivations, algorithms, and experiment results. Based on these visualization methods, we also discuss their practical applications to demonstrate the significance of the CNN interpretability in areas of network design, optimization, security enhancement, etc.
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