Long term human motion prediction is essential in safety-critical applications such as human-robot interaction and autonomous driving. In this paper we show that to achieve long term forecasting, predicting human pose at every time instant is unnecessary. Instead, it is more effective to predict a few keyposes and approximate intermediate ones by linearly interpolating the keyposes. We will demonstrate that our approach enables us to predict realistic motions for up to 5 seconds in the future, which is far larger than the typical 1 second encountered in the literature. Furthermore, because we model future keyposes probabilistically, we can generate multiple plausible future motions by sampling at inference time. Over this extended time period, our predictions are more realistic, more diverse and better preserve the motion dynamics than those state-of-the-art methods yield.
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The ability of accurate depth prediction by a convolutional neural network (CNN) is a major challenge for its wide use in practical visual simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) applications, such as enhanced camera tracking and dense mapping. This paper is set out to answer the following question: Can we tune a depth prediction CNN with the help of a visual SLAM algorithm even if the CNN is not trained for the current operating environment in order to benefit the SLAM performance? To this end, we propose a novel online adaptation framework consisting of two complementary processes: a SLAM algorithm that is used to generate keyframes to fine-tune the depth prediction and another algorithm that uses the online adapted depth to improve map quality. Once the potential noisy map points are removed, we perform global photometric bundle adjustment (BA) to improve the overall SLAM performance. Experimental results on both benchmark datasets and a real robot in our own experimental environments show that our proposed method improves the overall SLAM accuracy. While regularization has been shown to be effective in multi-task classification problems, we present experimental results and an ablation study to show the effectiveness of regularization in preventing catastrophic forgetting in the online adaptation of depth prediction, a single-task regression problem. In addition, we compare our online adaptation framework against the state-of-the-art pre-trained depth prediction CNNs to show that our online adapted depth prediction CNN outperforms the depth prediction CNNs that have been trained on a large collection of datasets.
The prediction for information diffusion on social networks has great practical significance in marketing and public opinion control. It aims to predict the individuals who will potentially repost the message on the social network. One type of method is based on demographics, complex networks and other prior knowledge to establish an interpretable model to simulate and predict the propagation process, while the other type of method is completely data-driven and maps the nodes to a latent space for propagation prediction. Existing latent space design and embedding methods lack consideration for the intervene among users. In this paper, we propose an independent asymmetric embedding method to embed each individual into one latent influence space and multiple latent susceptibility spaces. Based on the similarity between information diffusion and heat diffusion phenomenon, the heat diffusion kernel is exploited in our model and establishes the embedding rules. Furthermore, our method captures the co-occurrence regulation of user combinations in cascades to improve the calculating effectiveness. The results of extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets verify both the predictive accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our approach.
We address the problem of output prediction, ie. designing a model for autonomous nonlinear systems capable of forecasting their future observations. We first define a general framework bringing together the necessary properties for the development of such an output predictor. In particular, we look at this problem from two different viewpoints, control theory and data-driven techniques (machine learning), and try to formulate it in a consistent way, reducing the gap between the two fields. Building on this formulation and problem definition, we propose a predictor structure based on the Kazantzis-Kravaris/Luenberger (KKL) observer and we show that KKL fits well into our general framework. Finally, we propose a constructive solution for this predictor that solely relies on a small set of trajectories measured from the system. Our experiments show that our solution allows to obtain an efficient predictor over a subset of the observation space.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
When we humans look at a video of human-object interaction, we can not only infer what is happening but we can even extract actionable information and imitate those interactions. On the other hand, current recognition or geometric approaches lack the physicality of action representation. In this paper, we take a step towards a more physical understanding of actions. We address the problem of inferring contact points and the physical forces from videos of humans interacting with objects. One of the main challenges in tackling this problem is obtaining ground-truth labels for forces. We sidestep this problem by instead using a physics simulator for supervision. Specifically, we use a simulator to predict effects and enforce that estimated forces must lead to the same effect as depicted in the video. Our quantitative and qualitative results show that (a) we can predict meaningful forces from videos whose effects lead to accurate imitation of the motions observed, (b) by jointly optimizing for contact point and force prediction, we can improve the performance on both tasks in comparison to independent training, and (c) we can learn a representation from this model that generalizes to novel objects using few shot examples.
We present an approach to learn an object-centric forward model, and show that this allows us to plan for sequences of actions to achieve distant desired goals. We propose to model a scene as a collection of objects, each with an explicit spatial location and implicit visual feature, and learn to model the effects of actions using random interaction data. Our model allows capturing the robot-object and object-object interactions, and leads to more sample-efficient and accurate predictions. We show that this learned model can be leveraged to search for action sequences that lead to desired goal configurations, and that in conjunction with a learned correction module, this allows for robust closed loop execution. We present experiments both in simulation and the real world, and show that our approach improves over alternate implicit or pixel-space forward models. Please see our project page (//judyye.github.io/ocmpc/) for result videos.
Knowledge graph embedding aims to learn distributed representations for entities and relations, and is proven to be effective in many applications. Crossover interactions --- bi-directional effects between entities and relations --- help select related information when predicting a new triple, but haven't been formally discussed before. In this paper, we propose CrossE, a novel knowledge graph embedding which explicitly simulates crossover interactions. It not only learns one general embedding for each entity and relation as most previous methods do, but also generates multiple triple specific embeddings for both of them, named interaction embeddings. We evaluate embeddings on typical link prediction tasks and find that CrossE achieves state-of-the-art results on complex and more challenging datasets. Furthermore, we evaluate embeddings from a new perspective --- giving explanations for predicted triples, which is important for real applications. In this work, an explanation for a triple is regarded as a reliable closed-path between the head and the tail entity. Compared to other baselines, we show experimentally that CrossE, benefiting from interaction embeddings, is more capable of generating reliable explanations to support its predictions.
To solve complex real-world problems with reinforcement learning, we cannot rely on manually specified reward functions. Instead, we can have humans communicate an objective to the agent directly. In this work, we combine two approaches to learning from human feedback: expert demonstrations and trajectory preferences. We train a deep neural network to model the reward function and use its predicted reward to train an DQN-based deep reinforcement learning agent on 9 Atari games. Our approach beats the imitation learning baseline in 7 games and achieves strictly superhuman performance on 2 games without using game rewards. Additionally, we investigate the goodness of fit of the reward model, present some reward hacking problems, and study the effects of noise in the human labels.
Predictive models of student success in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are a critical component of effective content personalization and adaptive interventions. In this article we review the state of the art in predictive models of student success in MOOCs and present a categorization of MOOC research according to the predictors (features), prediction (outcomes), and underlying theoretical model. We critically survey work across each category, providing data on the raw data source, feature engineering, statistical model, evaluation method, prediction architecture, and other aspects of these experiments. Such a review is particularly useful given the rapid expansion of predictive modeling research in MOOCs since the emergence of major MOOC platforms in 2012. This survey reveals several key methodological gaps, which include extensive filtering of experimental subpopulations, ineffective student model evaluation, and the use of experimental data which would be unavailable for real-world student success prediction and intervention, which is the ultimate goal of such models. Finally, we highlight opportunities for future research, which include temporal modeling, research bridging predictive and explanatory student models, work which contributes to learning theory, and evaluating long-term learner success in MOOCs.
Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems, by representing the underlying set of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to-person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of co-authors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. We refer to these type of simultaneous interactions on sets of more than two nodes as higher-order interactions; they are ubiquitous, but the empirical study of them has lacked a general framework for evaluating higher-order models. Here we introduce such a framework, based on link prediction, a fundamental problem in network analysis. The traditional link prediction problem seeks to predict the appearance of new links in a network, and here we adapt it to predict which (larger) sets of elements will have future interactions. We study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets from a variety of domains, and use our higher-order formulation of link prediction to assess the types of structural features that are most predictive of new multi-way interactions. Among our results, we find that different domains vary considerably in their distribution of higher-order structural parameters, and that the higher-order link prediction problem exhibits some fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.
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