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For the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise we consider the problem of estimating the diffusivity parameter in front of the Laplace operator. Based on local observations in space, we first study an estimator that was derived for additive noise. A stable central limit theorem shows that this estimator is consistent and asymptotically mixed normal. By taking into account the quadratic variation, we propose two new estimators. Their limiting distributions exhibit a smaller (conditional) variance and the last estimator also works for vanishing noise levels. The proofs are based on local approximation results to overcome the intricate nonlinearities and on a stable central limit theorem for stochastic integrals with respect to cylindrical Brownian motion. Simulation results illustrate the theoretical findings.

In this work, we describe a generic approach to show convergence with high probability for both stochastic convex and non-convex optimization with sub-Gaussian noise. In previous works for convex optimization, either the convergence is only in expectation or the bound depends on the diameter of the domain. Instead, we show high probability convergence with bounds depending on the initial distance to the optimal solution. The algorithms use step sizes analogous to the standard settings and are universal to Lipschitz functions, smooth functions, and their linear combinations. This method can be applied to the non-convex case. We demonstrate an $O((1+\sigma^{2}\log(1/\delta))/T+\sigma/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate when the number of iterations $T$ is known and an $O((1+\sigma^{2}\log(T/\delta))/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate when $T$ is unknown for SGD, where $1-\delta$ is the desired success probability. These bounds improve over existing bounds in the literature. Additionally, we demonstrate that our techniques can be used to obtain high probability bound for AdaGrad-Norm (Ward et al., 2019) that removes the bounded gradients assumption from previous works. Furthermore, our technique for AdaGrad-Norm extends to the standard per-coordinate AdaGrad algorithm (Duchi et al., 2011), providing the first noise-adapted high probability convergence for AdaGrad.

In Statistics, log-concave density estimation is a central problem within the field of nonparametric inference under shape constraints. Despite great progress in recent years on the statistical theory of the canonical estimator, namely the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator, adoption of this method has been hampered by the complexities of the non-smooth convex optimization problem that underpins its computation. We provide enhanced understanding of the structural properties of this optimization problem, which motivates the proposal of new algorithms, based on both randomized and Nesterov smoothing, combined with an appropriate integral discretization of increasing accuracy. We prove that these methods enjoy, both with high probability and in expectation, a convergence rate of order $1/T$ up to logarithmic factors on the objective function scale, where $T$ denotes the number of iterations. The benefits of our new computational framework are demonstrated on both synthetic and real data, and our implementation is available in a github repository \texttt{LogConcComp} (Log-Concave Computation).

When implementing the gradient descent method in low precision, the employment of stochastic rounding schemes helps to prevent stagnation of convergence caused by the vanishing gradient effect. Unbiased stochastic rounding yields zero bias by preserving small updates with probabilities proportional to their relative magnitudes. This study provides a theoretical explanation for the stagnation of the gradient descent method in low-precision computation. Additionally, we propose two new stochastic rounding schemes that trade the zero bias property with a larger probability to preserve small gradients. Our methods yield a constant rounding bias that, on average, lies in a descent direction. For convex problems, we prove that the proposed rounding methods typically have a beneficial effect on the convergence rate of gradient descent. We validate our theoretical analysis by comparing the performances of various rounding schemes when optimizing a multinomial logistic regression model and when training a simple neural network with an 8-bit floating-point format.

We present new algorithms for online convex optimization over unbounded domains that obtain parameter-free regret in high-probability given access only to potentially heavy-tailed subgradient estimates. Previous work in unbounded domains considers only in-expectation results for sub-exponential subgradients. Unlike in the bounded domain case, we cannot rely on straight-forward martingale concentration due to exponentially large iterates produced by the algorithm. We develop new regularization techniques to overcome these problems. Overall, with probability at most $\delta$, for all comparators $\mathbf{u}$ our algorithm achieves regret $\tilde{O}(\| \mathbf{u} \| T^{1/\mathfrak{p}} \log (1/\delta))$ for subgradients with bounded $\mathfrak{p}^{th}$ moments for some $\mathfrak{p} \in (1, 2]$.

The spectral density matrix is a fundamental object of interest in time series analysis, and it encodes both contemporary and dynamic linear relationships between component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper we develop novel inference procedures for the spectral density matrix in the high-dimensional setting. Specifically, we introduce a new global testing procedure to test the nullity of the cross-spectral density for a given set of frequencies and across pairs of component indices. For the first time, both Gaussian approximation and parametric bootstrap methodologies are employed to conduct inference for a high-dimensional parameter formulated in the frequency domain, and new technical tools are developed to provide asymptotic guarantees of the size accuracy and power for global testing. We further propose a multiple testing procedure for simultaneously testing the nullity of the cross-spectral density at a given set of frequencies. The method is shown to control the false discovery rate. Both numerical simulations and a real data illustration demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed testing methods.

Conditional local independence is an asymmetric independence relation among continuous time stochastic processes. It describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another process given the histories of additional processes, and it is important for the description and learning of causal relations among processes. We develop a model-free framework for testing the hypothesis that a counting process is conditionally locally independent of another process. To this end, we introduce a new functional parameter called the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), which quantifies deviations from the hypothesis. Following the principles of double machine learning, we propose an estimator of the LCM and a test of the hypothesis using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting. We call this test the (cross-fitted) Local Covariance Test ((X)-LCT), and we show that its level and power can be controlled uniformly, provided that the nonparametric estimators are consistent with modest rates. We illustrate the theory by an example based on a marginalized Cox model with time-dependent covariates, and we show in simulations that when double machine learning is used in combination with cross-fitting, then the test works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a scalable and memory-efficient optimization algorithm for large datasets and stream data, which has drawn a great deal of attention and popularity. The applications of SGD-based estimators to statistical inference such as interval estimation have also achieved great success. However, most of the related works are based on i.i.d. observations or Markov chains. When the observations come from a mixing time series, how to conduct valid statistical inference remains unexplored. As a matter of fact, the general correlation among observations imposes a challenge on interval estimation. Most existing methods may ignore this correlation and lead to invalid confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a mini-batch SGD estimator for statistical inference when the data is $\phi$-mixing. The confidence intervals are constructed using an associated mini-batch bootstrap SGD procedure. Using ``independent block'' trick from \cite{yu1994rates}, we show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically normal, and its limiting distribution can be effectively approximated by the bootstrap procedure. The proposed method is memory-efficient and easy to implement in practice. Simulation studies on synthetic data and an application to a real-world dataset confirm our theory.

In this paper, we provide near-optimal accelerated first-order methods for minimizing a broad class of smooth nonconvex functions that are strictly unimodal on all lines through a minimizer. This function class, which we call the class of smooth quasar-convex functions, is parameterized by a constant $\gamma \in (0,1]$, where $\gamma = 1$ encompasses the classes of smooth convex and star-convex functions, and smaller values of $\gamma$ indicate that the function can be "more nonconvex." We develop a variant of accelerated gradient descent that computes an $\epsilon$-approximate minimizer of a smooth $\gamma$-quasar-convex function with at most $O(\gamma^{-1} \epsilon^{-1/2} \log(\gamma^{-1} \epsilon^{-1}))$ total function and gradient evaluations. We also derive a lower bound of $\Omega(\gamma^{-1} \epsilon^{-1/2})$ on the worst-case number of gradient evaluations required by any deterministic first-order method, showing that, up to a logarithmic factor, no deterministic first-order method can improve upon ours.

Specifying reward functions for complex tasks like object manipulation or driving is challenging to do by hand. Reward learning seeks to address this by learning a reward model using human feedback on selected query policies. This shifts the burden of reward specification to the optimal design of the queries. We propose a theoretical framework for studying reward learning and the associated optimal experiment design problem. Our framework models rewards and policies as nonparametric functions belonging to subsets of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs). The learner receives (noisy) oracle access to a true reward and must output a policy that performs well under the true reward. For this setting, we first derive non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for a simple plug-in estimator based on ridge regression. We then solve the query design problem by optimizing these risk bounds with respect to the choice of query set and obtain a finite sample statistical rate, which depends primarily on the eigenvalue spectrum of a certain linear operator on the RKHSs. Despite the generality of these results, our bounds are stronger than previous bounds developed for more specialized problems. We specifically show that the well-studied problem of Gaussian process (GP) bandit optimization is a special case of our framework, and that our bounds either improve or are competitive with known regret guarantees for the Mat\'ern kernel.