Neural marked temporal point processes have been a valuable addition to the existing toolbox of statistical parametric models for continuous-time event data. These models are useful for sequences where each event is associated with a single item (a single type of event or a "mark") -- but such models are not suited for the practical situation where each event is associated with a set of items. In this work, we develop a general framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time, compatible with any intensity-based recurrent neural point process model. In addition, we develop inference methods that can use such models to answer probabilistic queries such as "the probability of item $A$ being observed before item $B$," conditioned on sequence history. Computing exact answers for such queries is generally intractable for neural models due to both the continuous-time nature of the problem setting and the combinatorially-large space of potential outcomes for each event. To address this, we develop a class of importance sampling methods for querying with set-based sequences and demonstrate orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency over direct sampling via systematic experiments with four real-world datasets. We also illustrate how to use this framework to perform model selection using likelihoods that do not involve one-step-ahead prediction.
Federated Learning (FL) allows multiple privacy-sensitive applications to leverage their dataset for a global model construction without any disclosure of the information. One of those domains is healthcare, where groups of silos collaborate in order to generate a global predictor with improved accuracy and generalization. However, the inherent challenge lies in the high heterogeneity of medical data, necessitating sophisticated techniques for assessment and compensation. This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the mathematical formalization and taxonomy of heterogeneity within FL environments, focusing on the intricacies of medical data. In particular, we address the evaluation and comparison of the most popular FL algorithms with respect to their ability to cope with quantity-based, feature and label distribution-based heterogeneity. The goal is to provide a quantitative evaluation of the impact of data heterogeneity in FL systems for healthcare networks as well as a guideline on FL algorithm selection. Our research extends beyond existing studies by benchmarking seven of the most common FL algorithms against the unique challenges posed by medical data use cases. The paper targets the prediction of the risk of stroke recurrence through a set of tabular clinical reports collected by different federated hospital silos: data heterogeneity frequently encountered in this scenario and its impact on FL performance are discussed.
Statistical modeling of a nonstationary spatial extremal dependence structure is challenging. Max-stable processes are common choices for modeling spatially-indexed block maxima, where an assumption of stationarity is usual to make inference feasible. However, this assumption is often unrealistic for data observed over a large or complex domain. We propose a computationally-efficient method for estimating extremal dependence using a globally nonstationary, but locally-stationary, max-stable process by exploiting nonstationary kernel convolutions. We divide the spatial domain into a fine grid of subregions, assign each of them its own dependence parameters, and use LASSO ($L_1$) or ridge ($L_2$) penalties to obtain spatially-smooth parameter estimates. We then develop a novel data-driven algorithm to merge homogeneous neighboring subregions. The algorithm facilitates model parsimony and interpretability. To make our model suitable for high-dimensional data, we exploit a pairwise likelihood to draw inferences and discuss computational and statistical efficiency. An extensive simulation study demonstrates the superior performance of our proposed model and the subregion-merging algorithm over the approaches that either do not model nonstationarity or do not update the domain partition. We apply our proposed method to model monthly maximum temperatures at over 1400 sites in Nepal and the surrounding Himalayan and sub-Himalayan regions; we again observe significant improvements in model fit compared to a stationary process and a nonstationary process without subregion-merging. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the estimated merged partition is interpretable from a geographic perspective and leads to better model diagnostics by adequately reducing the number of subregion-specific parameters.
Recent advances in foundation models, especially in large multi-modal models and conversational agents, have ignited interest in the potential of generally capable embodied agents. Such agents will require the ability to perform new tasks in many different real-world environments. However, current foundation models fail to accurately model physical interactions and are therefore insufficient for Embodied AI. The study of causality lends itself to the construction of veridical world models, which are crucial for accurately predicting the outcomes of possible interactions. This paper focuses on the prospects of building foundation world models for the upcoming generation of embodied agents and presents a novel viewpoint on the significance of causality within these. We posit that integrating causal considerations is vital to facilitating meaningful physical interactions with the world. Finally, we demystify misconceptions about causality in this context and present our outlook for future research.
Simulators are a pervasive tool in reinforcement learning, but most existing algorithms cannot efficiently exploit simulator access -- particularly in high-dimensional domains that require general function approximation. We explore the power of simulators through online reinforcement learning with {local simulator access} (or, local planning), an RL protocol where the agent is allowed to reset to previously observed states and follow their dynamics during training. We use local simulator access to unlock new statistical guarantees that were previously out of reach: - We show that MDPs with low coverability (Xie et al. 2023) -- a general structural condition that subsumes Block MDPs and Low-Rank MDPs -- can be learned in a sample-efficient fashion with only $Q^{\star}$-realizability (realizability of the optimal state-value function); existing online RL algorithms require significantly stronger representation conditions. - As a consequence, we show that the notorious Exogenous Block MDP problem (Efroni et al. 2022) is tractable under local simulator access. The results above are achieved through a computationally inefficient algorithm. We complement them with a more computationally efficient algorithm, RVFS (Recursive Value Function Search), which achieves provable sample complexity guarantees under a strengthened statistical assumption known as pushforward coverability. RVFS can be viewed as a principled, provable counterpart to a successful empirical paradigm that combines recursive search (e.g., MCTS) with value function approximation.
We consider a graph coloring algorithm that processes vertices in order taken uniformly at random and assigns colors to them using First-Fit strategy. We show that this algorithm uses, in expectation, at most $(\frac{1}{2} + o(1))\cdot \ln n \,/\, \ln\ln n$ different colors to color any forest with $n$ vertices. We also construct a family of forests that shows that this bound is best possible.
In the framework of solid mechanics, the task of deriving material parameters from experimental data has recently re-emerged with the progress in full-field measurement capabilities and the renewed advances of machine learning. In this context, new methods such as the virtual fields method and physics-informed neural networks have been developed as alternatives to the already established least-squares and finite element-based approaches. Moreover, model discovery problems are starting to emerge and can also be addressed in a parameter estimation framework. These developments call for a new unified perspective, which is able to cover both traditional parameter estimation methods and novel approaches in which the state variables or the model structure itself are inferred as well. Adopting concepts discussed in the inverse problems community, we distinguish between all-at-once and reduced approaches. With this general framework, we are able to structure a large portion of the literature on parameter estimation in computational mechanics - and we can identify combinations that have not yet been addressed, two of which are proposed in this paper. We also discuss statistical approaches to quantify the uncertainty related to the estimated parameters, and we propose a novel two-step procedure for identification of complex material models based on both frequentist and Bayesian principles. Finally, we illustrate and compare several of the aforementioned methods with mechanical benchmarks based on synthetic and real data.
As artificial intelligence (AI) models continue to scale up, they are becoming more capable and integrated into various forms of decision-making systems. For models involved in moral decision-making, also known as artificial moral agents (AMA), interpretability provides a way to trust and understand the agent's internal reasoning mechanisms for effective use and error correction. In this paper, we provide an overview of this rapidly-evolving sub-field of AI interpretability, introduce the concept of the Minimum Level of Interpretability (MLI) and recommend an MLI for various types of agents, to aid their safe deployment in real-world settings.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
We introduce a multi-task setup of identifying and classifying entities, relations, and coreference clusters in scientific articles. We create SciERC, a dataset that includes annotations for all three tasks and develop a unified framework called Scientific Information Extractor (SciIE) for with shared span representations. The multi-task setup reduces cascading errors between tasks and leverages cross-sentence relations through coreference links. Experiments show that our multi-task model outperforms previous models in scientific information extraction without using any domain-specific features. We further show that the framework supports construction of a scientific knowledge graph, which we use to analyze information in scientific literature.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.