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Traffic pattern prediction has emerged as a promising approach for efficiently managing and mitigating the impacts of event-driven bursty traffic in massive machine-type communication (mMTC) networks. However, achieving accurate predictions of bursty traffic remains a non-trivial task due to the inherent randomness of events, and these challenges intensify within live network environments. Consequently, there is a compelling imperative to design a lightweight and agile framework capable of assimilating continuously collected data from the network and accurately forecasting bursty traffic in mMTC networks. This paper addresses these challenges by presenting a machine learning-based framework tailored for forecasting bursty traffic in multi-channel slotted ALOHA networks. The proposed machine learning network comprises long-term short-term memory (LSTM) and a DenseNet with feed-forward neural network (FFNN) layers, where the residual connections enhance the training ability of the machine learning network in capturing complicated patterns. Furthermore, we develop a new low-complexity online prediction algorithm that updates the states of the LSTM network by leveraging frequently collected data from the mMTC network. Simulation results and complexity analysis demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm in terms of both accuracy and complexity, making it well-suited for time-critical live scenarios. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework in a network with a single base station and thousands of devices organized into groups with distinct traffic-generating characteristics. Comprehensive evaluations and simulations indicate that our proposed machine learning approach achieves a remarkable $52\%$ higher accuracy in long-term predictions compared to traditional methods, without imposing additional processing load on the system.

Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular and powerful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, classical approaches rely on strong assumptions such as the $\textit{exclusion criterion}$, which states that instrumental effects must be entirely mediated by treatments. This assumption often fails in practice. When IV methods are improperly applied to data that do not meet the exclusion criterion, estimated causal effects may be badly biased. In this work, we propose a novel solution that provides $\textit{partial}$ identification in linear systems given a set of $\textit{leaky instruments}$, which are allowed to violate the exclusion criterion to some limited degree. We derive a convex optimization objective that provides provably sharp bounds on the average treatment effect under some common forms of information leakage, and implement inference procedures to quantify the uncertainty of resulting estimates. We demonstrate our method in a set of experiments with simulated data, where it performs favorably against the state of the art. An accompanying $\texttt{R}$ package, $\texttt{leakyIV}$, is available from $\texttt{CRAN}$.

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The first is generalized Bayesian inference, which introduces a learning rate parameter to enhance robustness against model misspecifications. The second is Gibbs posterior inference, which formulates inferential problems using generic loss functions rather than probabilistic models. In such approaches, it is necessary to calibrate the spread of the posterior distribution by selecting a learning rate parameter. The study aims to enhance the generalized posterior calibration (GPC) algorithm proposed by Syring and Martin (2019) [Biometrika, Volume 106, Issue 2, pp. 479-486]. Their algorithm chooses the learning rate to achieve the nominal frequentist coverage probability, but it is computationally intensive because it requires repeated posterior simulations for bootstrap samples. We propose a more efficient version of the GPC inspired by sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers. A target distribution with a different learning rate is evaluated without posterior simulation as in the reweighting step in SMC sampling. Thus, the proposed algorithm can reach the desired value within a few iterations. This improvement substantially reduces the computational cost of the GPC. Its efficacy is demonstrated through synthetic and real data applications.

Deep neural classifiers tend to rely on spurious correlations between spurious attributes of inputs and targets to make predictions, which could jeopardize their generalization capability. Training classifiers robust to spurious correlations typically relies on annotations of spurious correlations in data, which are often expensive to get. In this paper, we tackle an annotation-free setting and propose a self-guided spurious correlation mitigation framework. Our framework automatically constructs fine-grained training labels tailored for a classifier obtained with empirical risk minimization to improve its robustness against spurious correlations. The fine-grained training labels are formulated with different prediction behaviors of the classifier identified in a novel spuriousness embedding space. We construct the space with automatically detected conceptual attributes and a novel spuriousness metric which measures how likely a class-attribute correlation is exploited for predictions. We demonstrate that training the classifier to distinguish different prediction behaviors reduces its reliance on spurious correlations without knowing them a priori and outperforms prior methods on five real-world datasets.

Toward desirable saliency prediction, the types and numbers of inputs for a salient object detection (SOD) algorithm may dynamically change in many real-life applications. However, existing SOD algorithms are mainly designed or trained for one particular type of inputs, failing to be generalized to other types of inputs. Consequentially, more types of SOD algorithms need to be prepared in advance for handling different types of inputs, raising huge hardware and research costs. Differently, in this paper, we propose a new type of SOD task, termed Arbitrary Modality SOD (AM SOD). The most prominent characteristics of AM SOD are that the modality types and modality numbers will be arbitrary or dynamically changed. The former means that the inputs to the AM SOD algorithm may be arbitrary modalities such as RGB, depths, or even any combination of them. While, the latter indicates that the inputs may have arbitrary modality numbers as the input type is changed, e.g. single-modality RGB image, dual-modality RGB-Depth (RGB-D) images or triple-modality RGB-Depth-Thermal (RGB-D-T) images. Accordingly, a preliminary solution to the above challenges, \i.e. a modality switch network (MSN), is proposed in this paper. In particular, a modality switch feature extractor (MSFE) is first designed to extract discriminative features from each modality effectively by introducing some modality indicators, which will generate some weights for modality switching. Subsequently, a dynamic fusion module (DFM) is proposed to adaptively fuse features from a variable number of modalities based on a novel Transformer structure. Finally, a new dataset, named AM-XD, is constructed to facilitate research on AM SOD. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our AM SOD method can effectively cope with changes in the type and number of input modalities for robust salient object detection.

We study learnability of linear utility functions from pairwise comparison queries. In particular, we consider two learning objectives. The first objective is to predict out-of-sample responses to pairwise comparisons, whereas the second is to approximately recover the true parameters of the utility function. We show that in the passive learning setting, linear utilities are efficiently learnable with respect to the first objective, both when query responses are uncorrupted by noise, and under Tsybakov noise when the distributions are sufficiently "nice". In contrast, we show that utility parameters are not learnable for a large set of data distributions without strong modeling assumptions, even when query responses are noise-free. Next, we proceed to analyze the learning problem in an active learning setting. In this case, we show that even the second objective is efficiently learnable, and present algorithms for both the noise-free and noisy query response settings. Our results thus exhibit a qualitative learnability gap between passive and active learning from pairwise preference queries, demonstrating the value of the ability to select pairwise queries for utility learning.

Recently introduced distributed zeroth-order optimization (ZOO) algorithms have shown their utility in distributed reinforcement learning (RL). Unfortunately, in the gradient estimation process, almost all of them require random samples with the same dimension as the global variable and/or require evaluation of the global cost function, which may induce high estimation variance for large-scale networks. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed zeroth-order algorithm by leveraging the network structure inherent in the optimization objective, which allows each agent to estimate its local gradient by local cost evaluation independently, without use of any consensus protocol. The proposed algorithm exhibits an asynchronous update scheme, and is designed for stochastic non-convex optimization with a possibly non-convex feasible domain based on the block coordinate descent method. The algorithm is later employed as a distributed model-free RL algorithm for distributed linear quadratic regulator design, where a learning graph is designed to describe the required interaction relationship among agents in distributed learning. We provide an empirical validation of the proposed algorithm to benchmark its performance on convergence rate and variance against a centralized ZOO algorithm.

Surrogate neural network-based partial differential equation (PDE) solvers have the potential to solve PDEs in an accelerated manner, but they are largely limited to systems featuring fixed domain sizes, geometric layouts, and boundary conditions. We propose Specialized Neural Accelerator-Powered Domain Decomposition Methods (SNAP-DDM), a DDM-based approach to PDE solving in which subdomain problems containing arbitrary boundary conditions and geometric parameters are accurately solved using an ensemble of specialized neural operators. We tailor SNAP-DDM to 2D electromagnetics and fluidic flow problems and show how innovations in network architecture and loss function engineering can produce specialized surrogate subdomain solvers with near unity accuracy. We utilize these solvers with standard DDM algorithms to accurately solve freeform electromagnetics and fluids problems featuring a wide range of domain sizes.

We propose a new method for event extraction (EE) task based on an imitation learning framework, specifically, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) via generative adversarial network (GAN). The GAN estimates proper rewards according to the difference between the actions committed by the expert (or ground truth) and the agent among complicated states in the environment. EE task benefits from these dynamic rewards because instances and labels yield to various extents of difficulty and the gains are expected to be diverse -- e.g., an ambiguous but correctly detected trigger or argument should receive high gains -- while the traditional RL models usually neglect such differences and pay equal attention on all instances. Moreover, our experiments also demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods, without explicit feature engineering.

The dominant sequence transduction models are based on complex recurrent or convolutional neural networks in an encoder-decoder configuration. The best performing models also connect the encoder and decoder through an attention mechanism. We propose a new simple network architecture, the Transformer, based solely on attention mechanisms, dispensing with recurrence and convolutions entirely. Experiments on two machine translation tasks show these models to be superior in quality while being more parallelizable and requiring significantly less time to train. Our model achieves 28.4 BLEU on the WMT 2014 English-to-German translation task, improving over the existing best results, including ensembles by over 2 BLEU. On the WMT 2014 English-to-French translation task, our model establishes a new single-model state-of-the-art BLEU score of 41.8 after training for 3.5 days on eight GPUs, a small fraction of the training costs of the best models from the literature. We show that the Transformer generalizes well to other tasks by applying it successfully to English constituency parsing both with large and limited training data.