We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously estimate a population quantile when it exists. Our theory and experiments indicate substantially improved practical properties: in particular, when the distribution is stable, the coverage is close to the desired level for every time point, not just on average over the observed sequence.
Modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, especially Deep Learning (DL) models, poses challenges in understanding their inner workings by AI researchers. eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) inspects internal mechanisms of AI models providing explanations about their decisions. While current XAI research predominantly concentrates on explaining AI systems, there is a growing interest in using XAI techniques to automatically improve the performance of AI systems themselves. This paper proposes a general framework for automatically improving the performance of pre-trained DL classifiers using XAI methods, avoiding the computational overhead associated with retraining complex models from scratch. In particular, we outline the possibility of two different learning strategies for implementing this architecture, which we will call auto-encoder-based and encoder-decoder-based, and discuss their key aspects.
In this thesis, we study problems at the interface of analysis and discrete mathematics. We discuss analogues of well known Hardy-type inequalities and Rearrangement inequalities on the lattice graphs $\mathbb{Z}^d$, with a particular focus on behaviour of sharp constants and optimizers.In the first half of the thesis, we analyse Hardy inequalities on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, first for $d=1$ and then for $d \geq 3$. We prove a sharp weighted Hardy inequality on integers with power weights of the form $n^\alpha$. This is done via two different methods, namely super-solution and Fourier method. We also use Fourier method to prove a weighted Hardy type inequality for higher order operators. After discussing the one dimensional case, we study the Hardy inequality in higher dimensions ($d \geq 3$). In particular, we compute the asymptotic behaviour of the sharp constant in the discrete Hardy inequality, as $d \rightarrow \infty$. This is done by converting the inequality into a continuous Hardy-type inequality on a torus for functions having zero average. These continuous inequalities are new and interesting in themselves. In the second half, we focus our attention on analogues of Rearrangement inequalities on lattice graphs. We begin by analysing the situation in dimension one. We define various notions of rearrangements and prove the corresponding Polya-Szeg\H{o} inequality. These inequalities are also applied to prove some weighted Hardy inequalities on integers. Finally, we study Rearrangement inequalities (Polya-Szeg\H{o}) on general graphs, with a particular focus on lattice graphs $\mathbb{Z}^d$, for $d \geq 2$. We develop a framework to study these inequalities, using which we derive concrete results in dimension two. In particular, these results develop connections between Polya-Szeg\H{o} inequality and various isoperimetric inequalities on graphs.
As language models (LMs) become more capable, it is increasingly important to align them with human preferences. However, the dominant paradigm for training Preference Models (PMs) for that purpose suffers from fundamental limitations, such as lack of transparency and scalability, along with susceptibility to overfitting the preference dataset. We propose Compositional Preference Models (CPMs), a novel PM framework that decomposes one global preference assessment into several interpretable features, obtains scalar scores for these features from a prompted LM, and aggregates these scores using a logistic regression classifier. Through these simple steps, CPMs allow to control which properties of the preference data are used to train the preference model and to build it based on features that are believed to underlie the human preference judgment. Our experiments show that CPMs not only improve generalization and are more robust to overoptimization than standard PMs, but also that best-of-n samples obtained using CPMs tend to be preferred over samples obtained using conventional PMs. Overall, our approach demonstrates the benefits of endowing PMs with priors about which features determine human preferences while relying on LM capabilities to extract those features in a scalable and robust way.
Regression models that incorporate smooth functions of predictor variables to explain the relationships with a response variable have gained widespread usage and proved successful in various applications. By incorporating smooth functions of predictor variables, these models can capture complex relationships between the response and predictors while still allowing for interpretation of the results. In situations where the relationships between a response variable and predictors are explored, it is not uncommon to assume that these relationships adhere to certain shape constraints. Examples of such constraints include monotonicity and convexity. The scam package for R has become a popular package to carry out the full fitting of exponential family generalized additive modelling with shape restrictions on smooths. The paper aims to extend the existing framework of shape-constrained generalized additive models (SCAM) to accommodate smooth interactions of covariates, linear functionals of shape-constrained smooths and incorporation of residual autocorrelation. The methods described in this paper are implemented in the recent version of the package scam, available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
We study general coordinate-wise MCMC schemes (such as Metropolis-within-Gibbs samplers), which are commonly used to fit Bayesian non-conjugate hierarchical models. We relate their convergence properties to the ones of the corresponding (potentially not implementable) Gibbs sampler through the notion of conditional conductance. This allows us to study the performances of popular Metropolis-within-Gibbs schemes for non-conjugate hierarchical models, in high-dimensional regimes where both number of datapoints and parameters increase. Given random data-generating assumptions, we establish dimension-free convergence results, which are in close accordance with numerical evidences. Applications to Bayesian models for binary regression with unknown hyperparameters and discretely observed diffusions are also discussed. Motivated by such statistical applications, auxiliary results of independent interest on approximate conductances and perturbation of Markov operators are provided.
Making use of a newly developed package in the computer algebra system SageMath, we show how to perform a full asymptotic analysis by means of the Mellin transform with explicit error bounds. As an application of the method, we answer a question of B\'ona and DeJonge on 132-avoiding permutations with a unique longest increasing subsequence that can be translated into an inequality for a certain binomial sum.
Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under weak assumptions and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals, adding to the literature on confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time -- which provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times and incur no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, enjoying finite-sample guarantees but not the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. This work provides a definition for "asymptotic CSs" and a general recipe for deriving them. Asymptotic CSs forgo nonasymptotic validity for CLT-like versatility and (asymptotic) time-uniform guarantees. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian for a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. As an illustration, we derive asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect in observational studies (for which nonasymptotic bounds are essentially impossible to derive even in the fixed-time regime) as well as randomized experiments, enabling causal inference in sequential environments.
We present experimental results on the single file motion of a group of robots interacting with each other through position sensors. We successfully replicate the fundamental diagram typical of these systems, with a transition from free flow to congested traffic as the density of the system increases. In the latter scenario we also observe the characteristic stop-and-go waves. The unique advantages of this novel system, such as experimental stability and repeatability, allow for extended experimental runs, facilitating a comprehensive statistical analysis of the global dynamics. Above a certain density, we observe a divergence of the average jam duration and the average number of robots involved in it. This discovery enables us to precisely identify another transition: from congested intermittent flow (for intermediate densities) to a totally congested scenario for high densities. Beyond this finding, the present work demonstrates the suitability of robot swarms to model complex behaviors in many particle systems.
Within recent years, generative AI, such as large language models, has undergone rapid development. As these models become increasingly available to the public, concerns arise about perpetuating and amplifying harmful biases in applications. Gender stereotypes can be harmful and limiting for the individuals they target, whether they consist of misrepresentation or discrimination. Recognizing gender bias as a pervasive societal construct, this paper studies how to uncover and quantify the presence of gender biases in generative language models. In particular, we derive generative AI analogues of three well-known non-discrimination criteria from classification, namely independence, separation and sufficiency. To demonstrate these criteria in action, we design prompts for each of the criteria with a focus on occupational gender stereotype, specifically utilizing the medical test to introduce the ground truth in the generative AI context. Our results address the presence of occupational gender bias within such conversational language models.
This paper presents asymptotic results for the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators within a two-way crossed mixed effect model as the sizes of the rows, columns, and cells tend to infinity. Under very mild conditions which do not require the assumption of normality, the estimators are proven to be asymptotically normal, possessing a structured covariance matrix. The growth rate for the number of rows, columns, and cells is unrestricted, whether considered pairwise or collectively.