Running machine learning algorithms on large and rapidly growing volumes of data is often computationally expensive, one common trick to reduce the size of a data set, and thus reduce the computational cost of machine learning algorithms, is \emph{probability sampling}. It creates a sampled data set by including each data point from the original data set with a known probability. Although the benefit of running machine learning algorithms on the reduced data set is obvious, one major concern is that the performance of the solution obtained from samples might be much worse than that of the optimal solution when using the full data set. In this paper, we examine the performance loss caused by probability sampling in the context of adaptive submodular maximization. We consider a simple probability sampling method which selects each data point with probability at least $r\in[0,1]$. If we set $r=1$, our problem reduces to finding a solution based on the original full data set. We define sampling gap as the largest ratio between the optimal solution obtained from the full data set and the optimal solution obtained from the samples, over independence systems. Our main contribution is to show that if the sampling probability of each data point is at least $r$ and the utility function is policywise submodular, then the sampling gap is both upper bounded and lower bounded by $1/r$. We show that the property of policywise submodular can be found in a wide range of real-world applications, including pool-based active learning and adaptive viral marketing.
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In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.
Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating bandable covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are established, and the derived minimax lower bound shows our proposed estimator is rate-optimal under certain divergence regimes of matrix size. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from a gridded temperature anomalies dataset and a S&P 500 stock data analysis.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.
The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, leading to concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address this concern, we introduce a new class of g-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and asymptotically normal for the causal effect of interest provided that a set of at least $\gamma$ out of $K$ candidate instruments are valid, for $\gamma\leq K$ set by the analyst ex ante, without necessarily knowing the identities of the valid and invalid instruments. We provide formal semiparametric efficiency theory supporting our results. Both simulation studies and applications to the UK Biobank data demonstrate the superior empirical performance of our estimators compared to competing methods.
We study dynamic algorithms for the problem of maximizing a monotone submodular function over a stream of $n$ insertions and deletions. We show that any algorithm that maintains a $(0.5+\epsilon)$-approximate solution under a cardinality constraint, for any constant $\epsilon>0$, must have an amortized query complexity that is $\mathit{polynomial}$ in $n$. Moreover, a linear amortized query complexity is needed in order to maintain a $0.584$-approximate solution. This is in sharp contrast with recent dynamic algorithms of [LMNF+20, Mon20] that achieve $(0.5-\epsilon)$-approximation with a $\mathsf{poly}\log(n)$ amortized query complexity. On the positive side, when the stream is insertion-only, we present efficient algorithms for the problem under a cardinality constraint and under a matroid constraint with approximation guarantee $1-1/e-\epsilon$ and amortized query complexities $\smash{O(\log (k/\epsilon)/\epsilon^2)}$ and $\smash{k^{\tilde{O}(1/\epsilon^2)}\log n}$, respectively, where $k$ denotes the cardinality parameter or the rank of the matroid.
In large scale dynamic wireless networks, the amount of overhead caused by channel estimation (CE) is becoming one of the main performance bottlenecks. This is due to the large number users whose channels should be estimated, the user mobility, and the rapid channel change caused by the usage of the high-frequency spectrum (e.g. millimeter wave). In this work, we propose a new hybrid channel estimation/prediction (CEP) scheme to reduce overhead in time-division duplex (TDD) wireless cell-free massive multiple-input-multiple-output (mMIMO) systems. The scheme proposes sending a pilot signal from each user only once in a given number (window) of coherence intervals (CIs). Then minimum mean-square error (MMSE) estimation is used to estimate the channel of this CI, while a deep neural network (DNN) is used to predict the channels of the remaining CIs in the window. The DNN exploits the temporal correlation between the consecutive CIs and the received pilot signals to improve the channel prediction accuracy. By doing so, CE overhead is reduced by at least 50 percent at the expense of negligible CE error for practical user mobility settings. Consequently, the proposed CEP scheme improves the spectral efficiency compared to the conventional MMSE CE approach, especially when the number of users is large, which is demonstrated numerically.
The stochastic gradient Langevin Dynamics is one of the most fundamental algorithms to solve sampling problems and non-convex optimization appearing in several machine learning applications. Especially, its variance reduced versions have nowadays gained particular attention. In this paper, we study two variants of this kind, namely, the Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the Stochastic Recursive Gradient Langevin Dynamics. We prove their convergence to the objective distribution in terms of KL-divergence under the sole assumptions of smoothness and Log-Sobolev inequality which are weaker conditions than those used in prior works for these algorithms. With the batch size and the inner loop length set to $\sqrt{n}$, the gradient complexity to achieve an $\epsilon$-precision is $\tilde{O}((n+dn^{1/2}\epsilon^{-1})\gamma^2 L^2\alpha^{-2})$, which is an improvement from any previous analyses. We also show some essential applications of our result to non-convex optimization.
Policy gradient (PG) estimation becomes a challenge when we are not allowed to sample with the target policy but only have access to a dataset generated by some unknown behavior policy. Conventional methods for off-policy PG estimation often suffer from either significant bias or exponentially large variance. In this paper, we propose the double Fitted PG estimation (FPG) algorithm. FPG can work with an arbitrary policy parameterization, assuming access to a Bellman-complete value function class. In the case of linear value function approximation, we provide a tight finite-sample upper bound on policy gradient estimation error, that is governed by the amount of distribution mismatch measured in feature space. We also establish the asymptotic normality of FPG estimation error with a precise covariance characterization, which is further shown to be statistically optimal with a matching Cramer-Rao lower bound. Empirically, we evaluate the performance of FPG on both policy gradient estimation and policy optimization, using either softmax tabular or ReLU policy networks. Under various metrics, our results show that FPG significantly outperforms existing off-policy PG estimation methods based on importance sampling and variance reduction techniques.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
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